Fantasy football recap -- What we learned from Week 5
Each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will provide an analytical deep-dive into Sunday's games to help provide a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players. If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Offensive pace and scheme notes:
- Neutral pass-to-rush rate standouts:
*Neutral = when the score was within six points*
Season Long:
Falcons -- 65% (Meaning they passed the ball on 65 percent of offensive plays when the score of the game was within six points)
Seahawks -- 65%
Bills -- 65%
Bengals -- 64%
Texans -- 63%
Bucs -- 63%
Chiefs -- 62%
Giants -- 62%
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Cardinals -- 53%
Rams -- 53%
Raiders -- 52%
Ravens -- 51%
Browns -- 50%
Patriots -- 50%
Chargers -- 49%
Vikings -- 46%
- Average drive distance standouts:
Average drive distance = the amount of yards gained per offensive drive
(Points per drive in parentheses to offer some insight as to which offenses underperformed relative to the amount of yardage they gained on each drive. There's more context -- the average starting field position per drive, for example -- that should be considered, but this is definitely a good starting point for highlighting some outliers.)
*Outliers in bold*
Season Long:
Packers -- 46.8 (3.67)
Raiders -- 42.7 (3.02)
Cowboys -- 41.3 (2.64)
Chiefs -- 40.9 (2.84)
Patriots -- 40.3Â (2.02)
Bills -- 40.1 (3.00)
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Buccaneers -- 31.3Â (2.32)
Eagles -- 29.4 (1.83)
Giants -- 28.8 (1.51)
Bengals -- 27.5 (1.73)
Broncos -- 27.4 (1.71)
Jets -- 27 (1.28)
Washington -- 21.9 (1.44)
This Week:
Texans -- 48.6 (3.00)
Panthers -- 48.6Â (2.56)
Cowboys -- 44.6 (3.00)
Browns -- 43.9Â (2.56)
Cardinals -- 42.7Â (2.73)
Raiders -- 41.2 (3.33)
Steelers -- 40.6 (3.80)
-------------------------------------
Jets -- 28.6 (1.00)
Buccaneers -- 28.5 (1.73)
Ravens -- 28.1 (1.67)
49ers -- 25.4 (1.55)
Bears -- 24.7Â (1.82)
Bengals -- 15.7 (0.25)
Washington -- 11.8 (0.77)
- Red zone efficiency standouts:
Red zone efficiency = Red zone touchdowns/red zone drives
Season Long:
86.7% -- Seahawks (Meaning they scored a touchdown on 87 percent of their drives that reached the red zone)
81.3% -- Cardinals
76.9% -- Vikings
73.7% -- Browns
72.2% -- Buccaneers
72.2% -- Chiefs
71.4% -- Washington
-------------------------------------
50% -- Panthers
46.2% -- Broncos
42.1% -- Colts
35.7% -- Bengals
30.8% -- Giants
25% -- Jets
This Week:
*Only had one red zone drive
100 percent club -- *Washington, Ravens, Eagles, Cardinals, Raiders, Steelers
-------------------------------------
33.3% -- Buccaneers, Jets, Texans
25% -- Colts
0% -- Falcons, Bengals
I'll be updating this on a game-by-game basis throughout the night on Sunday and into the morning on Monday.
Arizona Cardinals
DeAndre Hopkins piled up garbage time Fantasy points while playing with a big lead against the Jets in the second-half, but he had just two targets and 25 receiving yards in the first half. Even after being favored by Kyler Murray in the second-half, Nuk ended the game with a season-low 21 percent target share. The target distribution was a lot more balanced in this game, with four players seeing a target share above 18 percent. That's how Arizona's offense was run in 2019, and it was one of the potential red flags for Hopkins entering the season. I just bring this up as something for Hopkins' owners (and DFS players) to keep an eye on going forward. With the low average depth of target (aDOT) role that Hopkins is filling, he is dependent on massive target volume to put up top-three Fantasy WR numbers. If his target share begins to normalize in the way we saw in Week 5, Hopkins could be someone to consider selling. With that in mind, you definitely shouldn't overreact. The upcoming schedule for Arizona is super juicy, and Hopkins could easily be Fantasy's WR1 at the season's halfway point.
Kenyan Drake played 66 percent of the snaps (right in line with his season average), handled 19 of 27 RB touches, and was on the field for four of five goal to go plays. Chase Edmonds out-gained him 92-to-62 on 11 fewer touches, and it seems hard to believe that the Cardinals will be able to stifle Edmonds' impending breakout for much longer. For now, at least, Drake is filling a Fantasy-friendly role and is a high-end RB2 option with upcoming potential shootouts against the Cowboys, Seahawks, and Dolphins.
Andy Isabella played just 31 percent of the snaps (his lowest mark since Week 2) and ran a route on 19 of 37 dropbacks. He's tough to own in redraft leagues with Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Larry Fitzgerald healthy and Edmonds frequently (42 percent of his snaps in this one) lining up outside of the backfield.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons dropped back on an uncharacteristically low 59 percent of their plays against Carolina, despite playing from behind for the majority of this game. That could partially due to the absence of Julio Jones, but it also probably had something to do with the fact that Carolina could not stop them on the ground. Todd Gurley and Brian Hill combined for 160 rushing yards on 20 carries. The next three matchups are all quite favorable, so I'd continue to ride with Gurley if I owned him, but I'd absolutely be fielding offers. He played just 55 percent of the snaps, and while he finally contributed something as a pass-catcher in this one, Gurley still ran a route on just 20 of 38 dropbacks. In addition to the one dimensional aspect of Gurley's game, there's an outside chance that we see him phased out in the second half of the season with Atlanta in the process of overhauling the franchise (they fired their head coach and general manager after Sunday's game).
Olamide Zaccheaus led the team with a 97 percent snap rate and ran a route on all 38 of Ryan's dropbacks. That resulted in one 13-yard catch on three targets, but we saw him more involved in the previous two games. He could definitely bounce-back against the Vikings and Lions in the next two games if Julio remains sidelined.
Calvin Ridley's recent snap rates (74 percent in this game and 64 percent in Week 4) are down from what we saw in the first three games, so it's possible that he's not healthy. Still, Ridley owners can hardly complain about a 29 percent target share and eight catches for 136 yards. He's a weekly top-five Fantasy WR with Julio sidelined.
Hayden Hurst's snap rate (83 percent) was his highest as a Falcon and is actually significantly higher than the 64 percent rate role he occupied from Weeks 2-4. That and his six targets (17 percent target share) are positives, but the end result was two catches for eight yards in a terrific matchup. The usage suggests that better days are ahead, but the output just hasn't been there for Hurst so far. I understand how frustrating of a player he has been to own, but I'd prefer not to drop him. The usage and upcoming schedule has me holding onto a sliver of hope for a turnaround to the disappointing start to the season.
Russell Gage played just 62 percent of the snaps and caught two of five targets (credited with one drop) for 16 yards. Gage is on the verge of Fantasy irrelevancy after a hot start to the season.
Baltimore Ravens
Marquise Brown played a career-high 86 percent of the snaps in Week 5 and ran a route on 37 of Lamar Jackson's 38 dropbacks. The Ravens made a clear effort to get Brown more involved in Week 4, and that was the case again this week. He and Mark Andrews led the team with a 27 percent target share, and 127 of Lamar Jackon's 317 air yards (40 percent) went to Hollywood Brown.
J.K. Dobbins led the backfield with three targets and turned four touches into 55 scrimmage yards. It's hard to believe that he'll continue to be such a small part of the offense given how well he has played, but it's also impossible to trust him on a weekly basis until we see more.
Mark Ingram only played 30.2 percent of the snaps, but he was on the field for all four of Baltimore's goal to go plays. I'd be looking to trade Ingram the second he has a two-touchdown performance.
Buffalo Bills
Playing on Tuesday
Carolina Panthers
With no Reggie Bonnafon, we saw Mike Davis' snap rate spike to 83 percent. He gained 149 scrimmage yards on 16 carries and nine targets, while scoring a goal line touchdown and handling three of the five touches on goal to go plays. Next week's matchup against Chicago isn't ideal, but Davis is playing the most Fantasy friendly role of any RB not named Ezekiel Elliott at the moment.
Over the Panthers' three most recent games, Robby Anderson has a 28.6 percent target share, while D.J. Moore has just a 16.3 percent share. Robby A piled up double digit targets in the first half and finished with a 36 percent target share in this one. Moore ran one more route and was the one who found the end zone, but Anderson more than doubled his target total (12-to-5). I'd rather own Anderson going forward, and I'd treat him as a top-24 Fantasy WR.
Chicago Bears
David Montgomery appears poised to play a super Fantasy-friendly role with Tarik Cohen sidelined. He's played 83 percent of the snaps and run a route on 69 of 89 dropbacks over the past two weeks. Montgomery's six targets in Week 4 set a career-high, and he topped that with eight targets on Thursday night. He'll be a high-end RB2 against the Panthers and should be viewed as a no-doubt top-20 Fantasy RB going forward.
After seeing his snap rate rise from 57 percent in Week 3 to 69 percent in Week 4, Anthony Miller played just 41.3 percent of the snaps in Week 5. He caught all four of his targets and looked good in doing so, but the volume just isn't there. I'm fine moving on from him, as frustrating as it is.
The primary reason for Miller's disappointing 2020 is the surprisingly quick ascension of rookie Darnell Mooney. His snap rate (65 percent) is down a bit from last week's mark, but he has topped 60 percent of the snaps in four-straight games and is second on the team with a 17 percent target share over the past two weeks. Mooney didn't do anything in this game, but he is running a lot of routes, has the ability to stretch the field, and draws a terrific matchup against the Carolina Panthers in Week 6.
Allen Robinson demanded a monstrous 39 percent target share in this game and is a top-eight PPR play on a weekly basis. He could pile up double digit catches against the Panthers.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow dropped back to pass on 73 percent of Cincinnati's offensive plays through the first three games, but that dropped to just 55 percent with Cincinnati playing with a lead throughout Week 4's game. In Week 5, he dropped back to pass on 60 percent of Cincy's plays, even though they trailed from the get-go.
That was probably a result of Burrow playing his worst game as a pro and the Bengals wanting to limit the damage, because it's not like Joe Mixon was doing a whole lot (59 yards on 24 carries) with his touches. It's quite possible that we see Burrow's dropbacks scaled back as the year goes on -- similar to how Arizona handled Kyler Murray in 2019 -- if he continues to prove incapable of maximizing on that type of volume.
That brings us to Joe Mixon, who handled the lion's share of the work for Cincinnati offensively. A whopping 64 percent of Cincinnati's offensive touches went to Mixon in Week 5. The super exciting role as a receiver that we saw in Week 4 was on display again, as Mixon led the team with a 25 percent target share.
Mixon played 76 percent of the snaps in this one and out-targeted Gio Bernard seven-to-two. Mixon ran a route on 64 percent of the dropbacks last week, a number that fell to 49 percent in Week 5. Still, though, the only non pass catching specialist RB with a higher target share than Mixon (20.3 percent) over the past two weeks is Mike Davis (20.8 percent). This has been a super encouraging development for Mixon's Fantasy value.
A.J. Green played just 42 percent of the snaps before leaving this one with a hamstring injury, thus closing Green's chapter as the Bengals WR1 and beginning Tee Higgins' tale. Cincy's talented rookie led all receivers with a career-high 81 percent snap rate, ran a route on 38 of 39 dropbacks, and led the Bengals with a 31 percent air yardage share. Tyler Boyd provides a safer PPR floor on a weekly basis, but the rest of season outlook for him and Higgins draws closer to even each week. I'd have a tough time naming 30 receivers I'd rather own than Higgins in Fantasy going forward.
Cleveland Browns
In the first game without Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt played 70 percent of the snaps and handled 23 of 32 RB touches. He was on the field for all six of Cleveland's goal to go plays. D'Ernest Johnson was on the field for just 30 percent of the snaps, and Dontrell Hilliard didn't play. After being held below a 40 percent snap rate last week, Hunt's Week 5 workload was near the top in terms of storylines I was most curious to follow up on. With this type of workload, Hunt is locked in as a top-five Fantasy RB going forward. The schedule gets much easier after a meeting with the Steelers in Week 6.
Austin Hooper's 25 percent target share was by far his best mark of the season. It yielded just 57 yards and no scores, but it's encouraging nonetheless. Streaming options are pretty thin these days, so it's nice to see Hooper get a bit more involved.
OBJ matched Hooper with an identical nine targets and 57 scrimmage yards, and he ran a route on 38 of 39 dropbacks. He's a mid-to-low end WR2 against Pittsburgh next week, but OBJ has a chance at a real run of strong Fantasy performances after that.
Dallas Cowboys
Injuries freaking suck. Dak Prescott will miss the remainder of the season with a gruesome ankle injury, which could severely hamper one of the league's most exciting offenses. In Prescott's stead, Andy Dalton immediately gains Fantasy relevancy. He's a top-20 Fantasy QB going forward and a priority add in superflex leagues.
All three of Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper saw three targets from Andy Dalton, so there's no real takeaway from what we saw this week. I'd expect Cooper to continue to dominate the usage, but it's possible that the target distribution could be more even going forward.
Lamb ran 10 fewer routes than Gallup and was surprisingly only on the field for 55 percent of the snaps in this one, but he still finished with a team-high 8-124 on 11 targets. I'd like to wait and see how the offense looks under Dalton, but Lamb is approaching top-20 Fantasy WR territory.
Dalton Schultz came crashing back to earth, catching just one of three targets for six yards. It wasn't for a lack of opportunity, though, as played a career-high 88 percent of the snaps and ran a route on 28 of 34 dropbacks. Schultz will remain a top-12 Fantasy TE in Week 6 with a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals on tap.
I tweeted about Zeke's unusually low goal line conversion rate through the first four weeks, and we saw that correct itself somewhat, as he found the end zone twice in this game. He added to his commanding league lead in carries from inside the five yard line in this one, and no Fantasy RB is playing a more advantageous role than Elliott at the moment. I'd rather own Alvin Kamara, but Zeke is a close second.
Denver Broncos
Postponed
Detroit Lions
BYE
Green Bay Packers
BYE
Houston Texans
David Johnson's snap rate bounced-back from 55 percent last week to 78 percent in this spot, and he turned his 19 of 23 available RB touches into 103 scrimmage yards. Johnson ran a route on 23 of 38 dropbacks and saw four targets. He's a mid-to-low end Fantasy RB2 going forward.
Brandin Cooks ran 39 routes but went catchless on three targets as DFS chalk in Week 5, so, of course, he was targeted 11 freaking times on 34 routes run in this game. I'm not bitter that he went 8-161-1 the week after I took a donut from him in my main cash game lineup or anything!
Will Fuller had been finishing behind Cooks in routes run and snaps played, but he was even with him this week. His 23.5 percent target share is actually really solid, and Fuller was able to find the end zone once again, but his four catch and 58 yard line was a bit disappointing against a banged-up Jacksonville secondary.
Indianapolis Colts
T.Y. Hilton had played fewer than 60 percent of the snaps in three of the past four games, but he was much more involved in Week 5. He played 95 percent of the snaps, ran a route on every Philip Rivers dropback, and led the team with a massive 32.4 percent target share. Hilton also had a touchdown catch bounce off his hands, which has become a frustrating trend in 2020. Still, the usage is encouraging, and the next two matchups are inviting. I'd be fine sending a buy-low offer for Hilton after seeing him dominate the target share like this.
Mo Alie-Cox ran just 10 routes and saw one target. Meanwhile, Jack Doyle and Trey Burton combined for nine targets on 37 routes run. It's hard to justify owning Big Mac as anything other than a deep league lottery ticket.
Even in a game that was pretty close throughout, Jonathan Taylor played 55 percent of the snaps and ran just 13 routes. Outside of the Week 1 target total that got everyone excited, Taylor has yet to top two targets in a game. He's played below 60 percent of the snaps in three-straight games. The next two matchups are super juicy, but I don't feel confident that he'll even see the usage necessary to capitalize on the advantageous spots. You have to start JT against the Bengals and Lions, but it's possible that he'll be hitting your bench after that if the role doesn't improve.
Jacksonville Jaguars
What we saw from James Robinson on passing downs in Week 4 was super encouraging. Similar to Joe Mixon, Robinson was used more on third downs and obvious passing situations, which is the missing piece to his usage that could elevate him from a solid RB2 to a potential RB1 type of Fantasy producer.
Unfortunately, the passing down work shifted back towards Chris Thompson with the Jags playing from behind for most of their Week 5 game. Robinson's snap rate fell from 75 percent to 57 percent (still better than what we saw from him in negative game scripts early in the season), and he ran a route on just 19 of 55 dropbacks. Robinson still was targeted six times in this game, but that is unsustainable on such a low amount of routes run. It's also worth noting that Robinson wasn't in for any of Jacksonville's six goal to go plays. All six involved their usual third-down personnel, which meant Thompson got a goal line carry and ran five routes on goal to go plays. Overall, I'm not letting this one game damn Robinson's rest-of-season passing downs outlook, just like I wasn't fully ready to buy in after what we saw from him last week. If we see Thompson dominate the obvious passing down work again next week, it might be time to sell Robinson (especially if he has a strong game in a plus matchup against the Lions).
D.J. Chark injured his ankle late in this game, which is certainly something to keep an eye on. Chark still played 67 pecent of the snaps, yet he was targeted just five times on a day Gardner Minshew dropped back more than any other quarterback (55 times). No player saw a target share above 18 percent, but Laviska Shenault (eight targets), Keelan Cole (six), Robinson (six), and Tyler Eifert (six) all out-targeted Chark.
Cole led the team with 49 routes run, followed by Shenault (39) and Chark (37). He hasn't been able to turn his volume into much production, but Cole's underlying numbers suggest that he's someone who could become a Fantasy relevant receiver at some point in the season. Keep an eye on him.
Kansas City Chiefs
In perhaps the most unexpected turn of events of the week, the Chiefs dropped a home game against the Raiders. Kansas City had dominated the Raiders in the Patrick Mahomes era, so this was a surprise, to be sure.
As a result of the negative game script, Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw his snap rate drop to 60.6 percent. He didn't play a single third down, and he ceded two of nine goal to go opportunities to Darrel Williams. It's definitely frustrating to see CEH continue to come off the field in favor of Williams on third downs, especially given what he's shown as a pass-catcher in recent weeks. He still handled 87 percent of the RB touches and 91 percent of the RB carries, but that only equated to 13 touches in a weird game script. CEH turned his three catches into 40 yards, and I retain some hope that he'll play his way into the third-down role as the season goes on. The underlying numbers are much more encouraging for CEH than fellow rookies like Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, or Antonio Gibson, but they are a reminder that it may take awhile for these rookies to be fully trusted by their teams in a year where there was no preseason. Remain patient CEH owners, the upcoming schedule promises better days ahead.
It was a tilting day for Tyreek Hill owners, as he left a lot of Fantasy points on the field because of penalties. He still got there in Fantasy because of an end-around rushing touchdown, but there could have been so much more.
For the second-straight week, we saw Mecole Hardman out-snap Demarcus Robinson. Sammy Watkins left the game with what appeared to be a hamstring injury in the second quarter, and Hardman could move into an important role if Watkins is forced to miss time. He's a top waiver priority if available in your league. If you are a Hardman investor, congratulations on your patience. It already looked like he was playing his way into a semi-relevant role, and a Watkins injury could make the path even clearer.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs ended up having a strong Fantasy day, but I was actually left feeling worse about him for Fantasy going forward after this game. For starters, his second touchdown was gift-wrapped at the end of the game after a near pick-six got the Raiders right down to the goal line. That made his Fantasy point total look a lot better. In addition to that, Jacobs was only able to rush for 77 yards on 23 carries against a Chiefs team that has been super susceptible to the run. He also only played 64 percent of the snaps and ran a route on just 14 of 32 dropbacks. Jacobs got there with the touchdowns this week, but the lack of passing game involvement is going to leave owners disappointed on weeks where he doesn't score multiple times.
In his first game since Week 2, Henry Ruggs played 64 percent of the snaps and got behind the Kansas City secondary for two long catches. The fact that he saw just three targets was a bit disappointing, but I was left more encouraged by the fact that he played as much as he did. Also, his first catch was a really impressive adjustment on an underthrown ball. Ruggs looks like an impact player when targeted, for whatever that's worth. His next couple matchups aren't that inviting, but I'd definitely be stashing Ruggs wherever possible. With his health checking out, a late-season breakout for Ruggs seems much more likely today than at this time last week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Playing on MNF
Los Angeles Rams
This was the first game since Week 1 that Robert Woods wasn't contending with coverage from one of the league's top corners, so I expected the targets to favor him over Cooper Kupp in this game. That wasn't the case, as Kupp continued to be peppered with targets. He led the way with nine, while Woods came in a distant second with five.
Kupp wasn't able to do much with his targets, though, and he actually finished behind both Gerald Everett (90) and Woods (71) with just 66 receiving yards. Going forward, Woods will have to deal with the coverage of Carlton Davis, Patrick Peterson, and Richard Sherman (if he's able to return for either of the upcoming games against L.A.), but the schedule is cake other than that. It's close between Woods and Kupp as far as which player I'd prefer to own the rest of the way, and both remain reliable WR2 types.
Again, Tyler Higbee ran fewer than 20 routes. This is just his role for the time being, and it sucks for Fantasy. But we've seen this from Higbee in every game so far. He's an extremely touchdown reliant player that is going to hurt your chances of winning more often than not with such limited volume. There are 10-12 tight ends I'd rather own than Higbee.
Of course, after limiting Darrell Henderson's opportunities in Week 4, Sean McVay played him (42.6 percent snap rate) more than Malcolm Brown (38 percent) or Cam Akers (19 percent). Henderson was on the field for four of seven goal to go plays, and he converted one of his three touches into a goal line score. He's the back to own going forward, but they're all low-end RB2 types at the moment.
Miami Dolphins
Four catches was all it took for Preston Williams to pile up 106 receiving yards and a score, but it's worth noting that his snap rate (58.8 percent) was below 65 percent for the third-straight game. He (six) and Mike Gesicki (seven) led the team in targets, while DeVante Parker surprisingly finished with just three.
Gesicki's snap rate (44 percent) was down a bit in a game that the Dolphins were able to control on the ground, but he still ran a route on 26 of 31 dropbacks. He's one of the 10-12 tight ends I'd rather own than Tyler Higbee.
Jordan Howard was inactive for this game, and Myles Gaskin was in for 11 of 11 goal to go opportunities. That's huge! He handled five goal to go touches. Prior to Week 5, Gaskin was in for just 11 of 23 goal to go plays for Miami. If this is a permanent change, Gaskin has top-20 Fantasy RB appeal. After a surprising dip in passing game involvement in Week 4, Gaskin saw a 17 percent target share this week. Gaskin's Fantasy appeal continues to rise.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook left this game with a groin injury and will have an MRI on Monday. Hopefully it isn't a serious issue. Fingers crossed, but if Cook is forced to miss time, Alexander Mattison is going to be a strong Fantasy option in his stead. He had an 80 percent snap rate in the second-half, was on the field for all three second-half goal to go plays, and turned 19 second-half touches into 102 scrimmage yards.
Justin Jefferson's target share fell to 13 percent in a game that Adam Thielen dominated, but he still ran a route on 42 of 43 dropbacks. No worries.
New England Patriots
Postponed
New Orleans Saints
Playing on MNF
New York Giants
I was curious to see how New York's passing offense would fare in their first game that didn't come against one of the league's top passing defenses, and it was a mixed bag of results.
The good -- Darius Slayton looked like the baller he is. He ran a route on every Daniel Jones dropback and was targeted 12 times. His 36 percent target share resulted in eight catches for 129 yards against Dallas' susceptible secondary.
The bad -- Evan Engram ran 33 routes but was targeted just twice. He did have a long touchdown called back, but still, one catch for Engram in this matchup is quite worrisome.
The ugly -- Danny Dimes looked very Mitchell Trubisky-ish, which is a sentence that I never wanted to type. Life is better when Daniel Jones is fun, but that has not been the case outside of a few flashes in the season opener against Pittsburgh.
Devonta Freeman looked surprisingly spry in this game. A matchup against the Cowboys will do that to even the dustiest of players, I suppose. He played 53 percent of the snaps and turned 19 touches into 87 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Each of Freeman, Gallman, and Dion Lewis played one goal to go snap. None of them are worth owning outside of leagues with 14-plus teams.
New York Jets
For the second consecutive week, Jeff Smith ran a route on every single dropback and saw double digit targets. I thought there was a chance that the target distribution could even out a little with Le'Veon Bell returning and a new QB under center, but it actually became more condensed. Both Smith and Jamison Crowder saw a target share above 30 percent, which is really unusual for a wide receiver duo. Smith turned his looks into just three catches for 23 yards, while Crowder piled up 116 yards on eight catches.
Bell was targeted just once on 25 routes run. He played 67 percent of the snaps in his first game back and apparently was openly upset with his role after the game. Who knows what will happen with this situation. It wouldn't surprise me to see Bell off the team at the end of the year, but it also wouldn't surprise me to see him get the squeaky wheel treatment and return to workhorse status. I'd be fine selling Bell high if he has a big performance, but the upcoming schedule isn't particularly inviting.
Philadelphia Eagles
Zach Ertz played 95 percent of the snaps, but he saw just a 16.7 percent target share and finished with one catch for six yards. The matchup was brutal, but still, we have seen this from Ertz for almost 10 games now dating back to last season. In a year where people have been quick to write off A.J. Green and T.Y. Hilton as "washed," I am unsure why Ertz (and a pass-catcher I'll hit on in detail for the next team) have been given a pass. I'm ready to move on from Ertz as a top-five Fantasy TE, but the upcoming schedule is extremely enticing, so your best option may be to just hold and wait for a big game before you sell him.
Outside of his 74 yard run, Miles Sanders was limited to six rushing yards on 10 carries against Pittsburgh's vaunted defensive front. He did more than enough to satisfy Fantasy owners, though, and his 85 percent snap rate was a season-high. He should be viewed as a top-eight Fantasy RB, especially with the matchups the Eagles have on the horizon.
After coming down with a long touchdown catch in Week 4, Travis Fulgham upped his game to unforeseen heights in Week 5, looking like a WR1 in both volume and production. He was on the field for 79 percent of the snaps, led the team with 12 targets (33 percent share), and caught 10 passes for 152 yards and a touchdown. This all came against the freaking Pittsburgh Steelers!
It's important to remember that this also all came with Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert sidelined. Fulgham looked legit and earned Carson Wentz's trust by going and getting several jump balls, but he definitely could lose playing time in a matter of weeks. I'd claim him if in need of WR help, but don't bank on him being the solution. It's possible that he'll be irrelevant in a matter of weeks, although I hope he sticks around, because it was a lot of fun to watch him and Chase Claypool dominating this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson played just eight percent of the snaps before leaving with a back injury, which left a big opportunity for Eric Ebron (77 percent snap rate), JuJu Smith-Schuster (76 percent), James Washington (71 percent), and Chase Claypool (69 percent). Of that group, only Claypool topped 50 receiving yards, and he did so in spectacular fashion. Pittsburgh's second-round rookie is dripping with both talent and swag, and when given an opportunity for more playing time, he did what he has done all season -- dominate. Claypool finished with 110 receiving yards and four touchdowns on the day, and his 29 percent target share made him the only Steeler to see at least 20 percent of Ben Roethlisberger's targets. It's unclear how serious Johnson's injury is, but it is tough to imagine that Mike Tomlin will have any choice but to continue to get Claypool involved going forward. I'd add him before Fulgham for sure.
Ben Roethlisberger is not targeting JuJu Smith-Schuster the way that Fantasy owners grew accustomed to with the two players healthy in 2018. We saw Smith-Schuster struggle to get open last season too, but most were quick to write it off to injury. What if this is just who he is, though? His Fantasy production has been almost entirely reliant on touchdowns, and I'd be fine selling him now or after his next multi-TD game. There's a legitimate concern that JuJu could struggle to reach even a 20 percent target share if Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are both healthy and balling out.
San Francisco 49ers
It appears the 'easing in' period is over for Deebo Samuel. He played 89 percent of the snaps and saw a 22 percent target share. No one other than Raheem Mostert could get anything going for San Fran, but that usage is encouraging.
Rookie Brandon Aiyuk ended with double the catches (four) and yardage (44) of teammate Deebo Samuel, and he led all Niners in routes run (43 of 43). George Kittle played 100 percent of the snaps and ran 34 routes, but he only caught four of eight targets for 44 yards.
Mostert played 48 percent of the snaps, Jerick McKinnon played 25 percent, and Jeff Wilson played 23 percent for no apparent reason. McKinnon was given one carry and ran just 10 routes. That's really hard to believe after how well he's played this season, but thus is the life of a Kyle Shanahan RB. If you're a McKinnon owner, you should probably still stash him to see if the workload balances out in a more even game, but you can't trust him as a starter after that.
Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson turned in another pretty strong Fantasy performance, but it again came on usage that doesn't seem strong enough to support his Fantasy production. He played 57 percent of the snaps, rushed eight times, and only ran a route on 19 of 41 dropbacks. His eight targets on 19 routes run is going to be extremely hard to replicate even one more time, and is an impossibly high rate to sustain over the course of multiple games.
DK Metcalf led the way with a 34.5 percent target share, and he's out-targeted Lockett in each of the past two games. He also came down with the game-sealing touchdown -- his second of the night -- and led the team with 93 receiving yards. Lockett caught just four of five targets for 44 yards. I think this is a random rough patch, I wouldn't worry as a Lockett owner.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I thought that the Bucs might use rookie Tyler Johnson as the primary slot receiver with Chris Godwin out, and that happened to be exactly what we saw on Thursday night. Just like with Justin Watson (also out) before him, Tyler Johnson logged a high snap rate (79 percent) and dominated the slot usage while Scotty Miller's role (63 percent snap rate and zero targets) remained unchanged. Even still, Johnson is not a priority add this week. It would likely take a season-ending injury to Godwin for him to be worth the pickup. This is more of an indictment on Miller than anything. I don't view him as a top-50 Fantasy WR.
Mike Evans again paced the team (20.5 percent share) in targets and came down with a goal line score. I worry about his Fantasy value once Chris Godwin returns, and the only thing that is preventing Evans from being a clear sell-high is the super favorable upcoming schedule he faces, particularly during the Fantasy playoffs.
The sentence I am about to type might make me vomit. Ronald Jones and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are playing the same role. Yeah, I puked. As much as I don't want it to be true, this is the world we live in. Jones' 64 percent snap rate in Week 4 was his career-high, but he played 69 percent of the snaps on Thursday with Leonard Fournette listed as an emergency-only back. Like CEH, Jones is playing exclusively on first and second downs, while a player (Ke'Shawn Vaughn) who doesn't stand out as an obvious improvement on passing downs dominates the playing time in obvious passing situations. Despite this, Jones has 13 targets over the past two games. Assuming the role remains fairly close to what we've seen in the past two weeks, Jones should again be a top-20 option this week against a Green Bay defense that has struggled against opposing RBs.
Tennessee Titans
Playing on Tuesday
Washington Football Team
I mean, the tweets above pretty much tell the story. It is incredible that Alex Smith was able to return to an NFL field, but the offense was alarmingly anemic in this game. Part of the credit should definitely go to the Rams. They're allowing the fifth-fewest yards per drive on the season and prioritize keeping opposing offenses in front of them and limiting long gains.
The good news for Washington is they face the Giants, Cowboys, Giants again, Lions, Bengals, and Cowboys again in their next six games. They should be able to find more offensive success in those matchups.
J.D. McKissic still ran more routes (24) than Antonio Gibson (16), but the gap is shrinking. Gibson was on the field for all (just two) of Washingotn's goal to go plays, and he received a handoff on one of them. As someone with Gibson in every league, I've kept a close eye on the specific usage (first/second half, early/third downs, goal line situations, etc) split in this breakdown, and if I had to guess, I'd say we are one or two weeks away from Gibson taking over as the every-down (65-70 percent snap rate) back. That is just assuming that things continue to trend as we've seen from Week 1 until now. It's entirely possible that Gibson forces Ron Rivera's hand and takes command of the backfield as early as Week 6 against the Giants.
Terry McLaurin still played 100 percent of the snaps and saw a 26 percent target share in this game. He was just a victim of the horrible offensive environment. Better days are ahead.
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