Fantasy Football 2024: Why targets per route run is they key to unlocking wide receiver production and breakouts

If you Google the phrase "yards per route run," the results pervasively portray a level of confusion regarding the metric and its relevance. Maybe you've heard the phrase before and wondered why Fantasy football analysts obsess over it, placing so much emphasis on a player's yard per route run rate.

Fantasy football is a hobby that allows NFL fans to deepen their connection to and love for the game of football. But really, Fantasy football exists as its own unique and sovereign space. It is rarely a reflection of real-life football. Fantasy football results reflect a player's ability to compile whichever arbitrary stats that we as a group decide are worth points. A running back can catch a pass behind the line of scrimmage, trip over his feet, lose yardage, and still accrue Fantasy points.

Your Fantasy football league – whether it rewards one, half, or no points per reception, whether it allows you to guess which kicker might send that beautiful oblong ball through the uprights on any given week, whether you're playing to win big money or bragging right over your buddies – whatever your Fantasy football experience may be, it exists separate from the game that we watch on Sundays. Real-life football is described by statistics. Fantasy football is produced solely from statistics. By nature, the Fantasy football community tends to be a bit obsessive about analytics.

Over time, a collective attempt to perfect the process of predicting player statistical outcomes has led to a number of "made up" analytics that illuminates potential future Fantasy value. Some prove to carry a strong correlation to Fantasy production, while others settle in as cool descriptors of what we're seeing on the field.

A select few of these "made up" stats actually prove to be more predictive of future Fantasy points than a player's past Fantasy point totals! You guessed it, yards per route run is one of those stats. It's time to get on board with the glorious yard per route run movement and win some Fantasy football championships.

I invite you to consider approaching Fantasy football through a per-route lens. It's not just yards per route run, there's more! We have access to all sorts of awesome per-route data – targets per route run, yards per route run, and even first downs per route run – and I believe that this information is the next wave of improving Fantasy football analysis. It would be my honor and joy to help you learn more about how to apply it and accomplish all of your wildest Fantasy football dreams.

My name is Jacob Gibbs. I have been using per-route data to help make my Fantasy football dreams come true for the past six years (basically just making sure that my little brother never finishes above me in the standings, he talks way too much trash for me to let that happen), and this information has helped me to consistently identify values in Fantasy football drafts.

What key info on targets per route run will help you unlock players to target? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jacob Gibbs' running back target analysis, plus get the entire 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Bible, all from one of the nation's most-accurate rankers!

Why per-route data matters to winning in Fantasy

The two most recent examples come in the form of 2023 Fantasy football league-winners: Nico Collins and Puka Nacua.

In Nacua's case, varying circumstances precluded him from compiling impressive receiving totals during his BYU career, but his production when examined on a per-route basis suggested that Nacua possessed the potential to be a difference-maker at the NFL level. I brought this information to Fantasy Football Today's Beyond the Boxscore podcast listeners in May when the Rams' Round 5 pick was essentially free in Fantasy drafts, and Nacua joined Nico Collins as one of my most-drafted players in 2023.

Collins may seem like an obvious breakout candidate in retrospect, but many Fantasy football drafters were unable to overlook an underwhelming 927 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns compiled across his two initial pro seasons. Many judged Collins at face value after two disappointing seasons, which hardly felt fair given his circumstances. A look under the hood at his per-route data profile suggested that with better health, Collins might be able to produce huge Fantasy results if Houston's offense improved in Year 3.

Per-route data is not a cheat code to be followed blindly. As with any other metric, context is important when attempting to understand or apply it. Formation and personnel grouping affect per-route data, for example. With fewer wide receiver teammates on the field to compete for targets with, receivers record stronger per-route rates from two-receiver sets than from three-receiver sets. This factors into teams from the "Kyle Shanahan coaching tree" posting bloated per-route data. No team used three or more receivers at a lower rate than the Mike McDaniel-led Miami Dolphins in 2023, and we saw Tyreek Hill shatter any previous per-route records as a byproduct.

Another important contextual piece to understanding per-route data: sample size is super important. The smaller the sample of routes run, the larger the impact that any single route can have. If a player scores an 80-yard touchdown on a play where his defender slips, that's really not in any way indicative of future success. And yet, that singular outcome would have a massive influence on the player's season-long yard per route run rate, which we know to be one of the most predictive statistics available. This phenomenon highlights exactly why first downs per route run are also relevant. In the example just given, a fluke 80-yard touchdown reception results in just one first down. Knowledge of discrepancies that exist between a player's first down and yard per route run rates can potentially highlight fraudulent production that is unlikely to be replicable.

I explore tangential themes of the per-route topic in detail each offseason; if you're curious to learn more, I'd like to point you to the Fantasy Football Today newsletter. You can have my work delivered directly to your email inbox.

I introduced some nuances of per-route data analysis in this space with hopes of sparking your curiosity regarding the potential use-cases for per-route data. This information has been instrumental in elevating my game as a Fantasy football player and has deepened my understanding and appreciation for the factors that influence the results that we see on the field. My hope is that you might also find this information to be cool and useful. If I can accomplish that, eventually, per-route data will become normalized and future introductions that I write won't need to be so long.

Seven YPRR gems to target in your drafts

For the purpose of today's discussion, we're going to focus more on per-route results than any process or theory behind them. Using per-route data, I have highlighted seven players who I am excitedly targeting in Fantasy football drafts. I'm happy to share these results with you, and if you want to know more about players who weren't mentioned in this space, I will again invite you to follow that curiosity to the FFT newsletter.

Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins joined Tyreek Hill as the only three players to record a yard per route run rate above 3.00 while running 300 or more routes in 2023. Over the past 10 years, Julio Jones (three times), Cooper Kupp (in 2021) and Hill (2022) are the only other such instances, for reference.

As alluded to already, Kyle Shanahan's schematic design and frequent use of two-receiver sets boosts per-route stats. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik hails from the Shanahan coaching tree, but Houston actually used three-receiver sets 61% of the time – right in line with the NFL average. The Niners used three-receiver sets only 47% of the time. I filtered out any plays involving two or fewer receivers to see just how much these players benefited from their respective offensive schemes, and what I found was super interesting.

Aiyuk's yard per route run rate plummeted from 4.11 with two or fewer receivers on the field to 2.00 on plays with three or more receivers. That 2.00 rate is still strong, ranking 16th among 105 qualified (minimum 200 routes) receivers. Still, the "Shanahan effect" was real. Without filtering out plays with two or fewer receivers on the field, Aiyuk's per-route data looks historically elite. With it, he looked more like Mike Evans or Amari Cooper.

Filtering out plays with two or fewer receivers barely impacted the per-route data for Collins. That's an extremely encouraging signal regarding his future outlook.

Best single-season yard per route run rates on plays with three or more receivers on the field, 2019-23 (data courtesy of TruMedia)

Throw out any preconceived notions you may have had about Nico Collins. The only players on that list who did not go on to post multiple top-10 Fantasy WR point per game seasons were Cooper Kupp and Michael Thomas, each being prevented from doing so by health. Every other receiver on that list went on to achieve continued Fantasy superstardom. Draft Nico Collins. Draft Puka Nacua.

If you only look at Jaylen Waddle's 2023 Fantasy point total, his third season was a disappointment. However, on a per-route basis, Waddle improved across the board. As is usually the case when I find a discrepancy between a player's per-route data and public perception, the culprit is health. Waddle's route total dropped from 523 in 2022 to 378 in 2023 as he contended with a variety of injuries. When on the field, Waddle was spectacular.

Even when filtering to exclude plays with two or fewer receivers on the field, Waddle remained top 10 at the WR position in targets, first downs, and yards per route run. If you were comfortable drafting Waddle in 2023, enjoy his discounted 2023 price. All indications are that Waddle remains an ascending talent with the potential to be the league's top yardage creator at the wide receiver position while attached to this Mike McDaniel-designed offense.

After his yard per route run rate dropped for five straight seasons from 2017-21, Keenan Allen has displayed signs of a late-career resurgence. Allen's rate spiked from 1.78 yards in 2021 to 2.14 in 2022, but I wasn't sure if we could trust it as he only played 10 games. Across a much larger sample size in 2023, Allen turned in an even better rate of 2.37 yards. A rookie quarterback and a new offensive environment present scary trends for an aging receiver, but those factors feel already priced into his average draft position. Allen's per-route rates over the past two seasons show no signs of decline, making him an intriguing bet when he falls in drafts.

After crushing it to the tune of the Fantasy WR12 overall finish in 2022, Christian Kirk actually improved his per-route rates in his second season with the Jags. He only played 12 games so many don't realize it, but Kirk was awesome for an otherwise dysfunctional offense. If extrapolated over his 2022 route total (618), Kirk's 2023 yard per route run rate would yield 1,286 receiving yards.

With a yard per route run rate that actually came in just above Kirk's, DeAndre Hopkins low-key balled out in his first season with the Titans. He was more efficient at turning his route running opportunities into yardage than fellow aging receiver Davante Adams in similarly subpar situations. I expect the new-look Titans to throw the ball as much as possible in 2023, and Hopkins has the potential to post some shocking stats if able to maintain even 90 percent of his per-route effectiveness from 2023 over an increased route total.

If your Fantasy team was competing for a late-season title push in 2023, you likely felt the gravity of Trey McBride's emergence. His per-route data provides a truly stunning illustration of how impressive his second pro season was. T.J. Hockenson has never topped two yards per route run in a season; McBride did it in his age-24 season. McBride ranked first at tight end in targets and first downs per route run and was second in yards per route run. Sam LaPorta outscored him on the year, but McBride's 2.04 yards per route run was way ahead of LaPorta's 1.76 mark.

McBride's 2023 per-route data comes closer to the early-career rates of true difference-makers at the position (Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews) than any young tight end we've had since that era. Marvin Harrison Jr.'s presence may lower McBride's target rates, but the two draw targets at completely different areas of the field. On average, McBride's targets came just 6.6 yards from the line of scrimmage in 2023. It seems likely that McBride will again soak up targets in the short and underneath area while Harrison works the intermediate-deep levels of the field.

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