Fantasy Football 2022: 10 winners coming out of NFL free agency, featuring Michael Pittman, Darnell Mooney, more

The 2022 NFL offseason has been one of the wildest in recent memory, and keeping up with it all isn't easy. Stars like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Allen Robinson are among the many Fantasy-relevant players who have switched teams within the past month. These moves don't just directly affect the players involved, either. There's a trickle-down effect with any player movement, and as the dust settles on the 2022 free agency period, we have a more clear view of which players' Fantasy value has changed the most.

If you've had a difficult time keeping up with all of the changes, here are the 10 players I believe to have benefited most from the 2022 free agency moves:

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

The leap that Michael Pittman made from Year 1 to Year 2 was one of the most unprecedented that we have witnessed from any second-year wide receiver in recent memory.

Pittman never showed an ability to draw targets at a high rate in college, and it was more of the same in his first season with the Colts. In three years at USC, the best that Pittman ever ranked in target per route run (TPRR) rate was 66th percentile -- not bad, but not what you'd expect from the 34th overall pick.

As a rookie, Pittman drew a target on just 16.7 percent of his routes run. The list of rookie receivers who ran at least 350 routes and recorded a TPRR rate below 17 percent in the four years I have the data is not an encouraging one:

16.9% -- Antonio Callaway
16.7% -- Michael Pittman
16.4% -- Michael Gallup
16.1% -- Anthony Miller
15.7% -- John Ross
15.6% -- Courtland Sutton
15.2% -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
15.2% -- Zay Jones
12.2% -- Laquon Treadwell
11.1% -- Demarcus Robinson
10.3% -- James Washington
10.1% -- Jaylen Guyton

Gallup and Sutton are the only names on that list who showed an ability to draw targets at a higher rate beyond their disappointing rookie season. Typically, receivers who don't show an ability to draw targets at a respectable rate as rookies don't step into a target hog type of role in their second season.

That's exactly what we saw from Pittman in 2021, though. His TPRR rate shot up by 39 percent from Year 1 to Year 2, and his yard per route run rate saw an even larger boost (42 percent). He commanded 25.7 percent of Indy's targets and 31.9 percent of the air yardage, making Pittman one of just 10 receivers with a target share above 25 percent and an air yardage share above 30 percent.

It was an awesome sophomore showing for Pittman. And after the Colts replaced Carson Wentz with Matt Ryan, Pittman's potential is through the roof as he enters Year 3.

The offense that Ryan will head up in Indianapolis is nothing like the one that has produced extremely Fantasy results for his wide receivers over the years in Atlanta. Just because Ryan produced a top-six Fantasy WR in every season from 2014 to 2020, Pittman is in no way guaranteed or even likely to post that type of Fantasy finish.

When it comes to the total target volume, there's no comparison between Atlanta's pass-heavy attack and a Jonathan Taylor-centered Colts offense. We can still compare Ryan's tendency to target his top wideout on a per route basis, though.

Matt Ryan's top target by season on a per-route basis:

2021 -- Russell Gage -- 24%
2020 -- Calvin Ridley -- 25.4%
2019 -- Julio Jones -- 27.4%
2018 -- Julio Jones -- 29.7%
2017 -- Julio Jones -- 31.6%
2016 -- Julio Jones -- 28.6%
2015 -- Julio Jones -- 33.1%
2014 -- Julio Jones -- 27.9%

Those are some juicy rates for a receiver who already has shown an ability to demand a WR1 type of target share as he enters Year 3. Unlike Pittman, Gage and Ridley had shown no ability to demand targets at a WR1-like level prior to becoming Ryan's top weapon. Gage had a career-best TPRR rate of 21.1 percent, while Ridley's best rate prior to 2020 was 19.8 percent, We've already seen Pittman command a target on 23.2 percent of his routes; combine that data point with Ryan's prolonged tendency to feed his WR1 the ball, and it seems entirely possible that Pittman draws targets at one of the highest per-route rates of any receiver in 2022.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears

Darnell Mooney didn't post quite as drastic of improvements to his rates as Pittman did from Year 1 to Year 2, but he did overtake Allen Robinson as Chicago's WR1. It was somewhat by necessity, but still, Mooney's ability to completely dominate the volume in Chicago in his second pro season was shocking and extremely exciting for his outlook.

Mooney finished with a 26.7 percent target share and 36 percent air yardage share in 2021. Over the past 15 seasons, there have been only 12 other receivers to hit both of those marks at the age of 23 or younger:

Brandon Marshall (2007)
Calvin Johnson (2008)
Josh Gordon (2013)
Kelvin Benjamin (2014)
Josh Gordon (2014)
Mike Evans (2015)
Odell Beckham (2015)
DeAndre Hopkins (2015)
Mike Evans (2016)
Odell Beckham (2016)
Justin Jefferson (2021)
DK Metcalf (2021)

Few receivers improved their rates from 2020 to 2021 as drastically as Mooney did on his way to his first 1,000-yard season. Mooney's 18.7 percent target per route run rate as a rookie was respectable -- especially when you consider that it came on an average depth of target of 11.6 yards. He upped that rate to 22.8 percent in Year 2, marking a 21.9 percent increase from his rookie campaign. Mooney's yard per route run improvements were even more drastic, increasing by 43 percent from Year 1 (1.20) to Year 2 (1.72).

Mooney's rates with Robinson mostly sidelined in the second half of the season provide even more reason to be giddy about his WR1 potential with Robinson out of the picture in 2022. His target per route run rate climbed all the way to 24.3 percent over Chicago's final eight games. Chicago funneled 27.7 percent of the team targets and 37.9 percent of the air yards Mooney's way during that eight-game stretch; Justin Jefferson and D.J. Moore were the only two players to hit both of those benchmarks during the 2021 season.

With Robinson now a member of the Los Angeles Rams, Mooney is one step closer to garnering one of the highest target shares of any player in 2022. All that remains a potential roadblock is the possibility that Chicago adds a talented WR in the NFL Draft. However, the Bears have just three picks, none of which come in the first round. It appears likely that Mooney will again see as much receiving volume as he is capable of drawing in 2022, making him one of the most under drafted players according to early average draft position data.

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By all indications, Leonard Fournette is just a slightly above starter-level player at his position. His 2021 advanced rushing and receiving efficiency rates were the second-best of his five-year career, and yet they were just above the league average. When Fournette has posted strong Fantasy results, it has been almost entirely predicated on extremely Fantasy-friendly usage.

With Tampa Bay handing him a three-year contract and making no effort to re-sign Ronald Jones or Giovani Bernard, Fournette appears likely to again fill one of the best roles available to any Fantasy RB.

We have a six-game sample size in which Fournette played a role similar to what he currently projects for in 2022. The Bucs began the season with Bernard penciled in as the third-down back, but that changed as the season progressed. With Bernard sidelined in Week 4, Fournette played 82 percent of the snaps and handled all of the obvious passing down reps. Following their Week 9 Bye, Tampa drastically increased Fournette's receiving involvement.

Including their playoff loss, Tampa fed Fournette target totals of 9, 6, 8, 8, 7, 7, and 9 from Week 10 on. Not only does that seven-game sample extrapolate to 131 targets over 17 games, but the game-by-game consistency with which Fournette delivered those target totals was unique at the RB position.

Fournette was Fantasy's RB5 from Week 10 on, even though he missed 2.5 games. Only Jonathan Taylor outscored him on a per-game basis during that stretch. Given the way Tampa's offseason has shaken out, Fournette is in line to project as a borderline top-five Fantasy RB in 2022.

Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

He was able to work his way into a sometimes Fantasy-relevant role as the season progressed, but it required a DeAndre Hopkins injury before Christian Kirk's excellent efficiency metrics were rewarded with consistent playing time. He won't have to fight for his quarterback's attention in 2022, though, as the Jaguars invested heavily to make Kirk their WR1.

I covered Jacksonville's bizarre offseason and how Kirk's route tree is likely to fit with Trevor Lawrence and new Head Coach Doug Pederson in detail here.

The TL;DR version: Kirk appears likely to be peppered with targets from the slot and has been highly efficient on the types of routes that Lawrence and Pederson have favored for their slot receivers. He went from a borderline top-36 Fantasy WR in Arizona to someone whose range of projectable outcomes has a top-20 finish comfortably within reason as a featured weapon in Jacksonville.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

While Arizona lost playmakers in Kirk and Chase Edmonds this offseason, they were able to retain the NFL's second-leading touchdown rusher in James Conner. The Cardinals could still add competition at the RB position, but his $21 million three-year contract implies that it's entirely possible that they're prepared to enter 2021 with Conner in a featured role.

We saw Conner fill a featured role over a five-game stretch in which Edmonds was sidelined in 2021, and his usage volume was comparable to the year-end rates that made Fournette a top-five Fantasy RB. Conner's snap rate never dipped below 80 percent as a starter with Edmonds sidelined, even reaching as high as 91 and 96 percent at times during that stretch. He ran a route on 67 percent of Arizona's dropbacks and averaged 5.2 targets per game. Conner also was entrusted with 79 percent of the RB rushing attempts, which came out to an average of 17 attempts per game.

The only Fantasy RB who outscored Conner during his time as Arizona's featured back was Jonathan Taylor.

Conner's touchdown total is sure for regression in 2022, but the volume was there for RB1 Fantasy production even with more reasonable luck in finding the end zone. He doesn't bring the type of target upside that Fournette does, but his projection looks fairly similar otherwise. If Arizona doesn't make any significant additions at the RB position, Conner is likely to project as a top-12 Fantasy RB in his expanded role.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys

With Amari Cooper and Blake Jarwin out of the picture, Dalton Schultz appears set to again find excellent target volume available to him.

The oft-injured Jarwin played just the first seven games for the Cowboys before missing the remainder of the season. From that point on, Schultz filled one of the most Fantasy-friendly roles of any tight end.

The Cowboys moving on from Jarwin makes it likely that Schultz will rank near the top of the NFL in routes run at his position, and Amari Cooper's trade makes it likely that Schultz will draw targets at a higher rate in 2022.

After finishing as the Fantasy TE3 in 2021, Schultz is being drafted as the TE10 according to early ADP data. That doesn't make much sense after the way Dallas' free agency period has shaken out.

Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns

Cooper's eight touchdowns in 2021 somewhat salvaged his Fantasy finish, but his seventh pro season was one of his worst. His 1.65 yard per route run rate was the second-lowest of Cooper's career and a far cry from his 2.05-yard mark in three prior seasons with the Cowboys. Cooper also drew a target on just 19.9 percent of his routes, down from a 22 percent rate that already was relatively low for a WR1.

These are not encouraging signs for a player entering the latter half of his career. Context is important to keep in mind when examining Cooper's career trajectory -- he has dealt with injuries and a declining offensive system in Dallas -- but still, the trajectory seems to be a decline.

Cooper's rates by season:

Target per route run rate

22.9% -- 2019
21.1% -- 2020
19.9% -- 2021

Yard per route run rate

2.29 -- 2019
1.81 -- 2020
1.65 -- 2021

Can he bounce back in Year 8? Deshaun Watson's route specific data provides one promising data point. The likelihood of an increase in play action usage also would seem to be a positive for Cooper. The players who saw the biggest boost from play action plays during Watson's time in Houston were Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller. Watson's aDOT on play action dropbacks was 11.7 yards, which comes in a full 33 percent above the league average. He looked to aggressively attack downfield on his play action dropbacks, and the result was insanely efficient per-route rates for downfield weapons like Fuller and Cooks. Fuller's yard per route run rate rose from 1.42 to 3.68 on play action dropbacks with Watson under center, while Cooks' rate rose from 1.80 on non-PA routes to 2.96 from play action. This certainly seems to bode well for Cooper, a proficient downfield route runner.

The data we have on Cooper over the past three seasons is not encouraging, and neither is the low cost that Dallas got back in the trade sending him to Cleveland. We should not ignore obvious red flags just because the upside is tantalizing. But the upside absolutely is tantalizing for Cooper if he is healthy and working as Watson's WR1.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

After struggling to stay healthy for the 2019 and 2020 seasons, David Njoku rebounded with his most efficient per-route production in five pro seasons. In fact, only seven tight ends finished with a higher yard per route run rate than Njoku in 2021. He was more efficient with his routes than highly Fantasy-relevant tight ends such as T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, and Mike Gesicki. He was the one Cleveland pass-catcher capable of transcending Mayfield's struggles in 2021 -- the 37 percent discrepancy between Njoku's yard per route run rate and former teammate Austin Hooper's rate tells a pretty clear story.

With Hooper now out of the picture and Cleveland using their Franchise tag to keep Njoku around, it seems as if he'll have every opportunity to convert his per-route efficiency into better raw production in 2022.

Njoku also is the most likely among the current options on Cleveland's depth chart to assume an increase in targets because of the absence of Jarvis Landry. Landry's 7.1-yard average route depth is right in line with Njoku's career mark of 6.8, and his route tree certainly makes him a likely candidate to benefit from finally having a QB who can read zone schemes.

The Browns likely aren't finished adding weapons to Watson's arsenal. I am tempering expectations for Njoku until we have a clearer picture of who he will be competing for targets against. If Cleveland doesn't bring in significant competition for playing time at the tight end position or targets in the short and intermediate area of the field, though, Njoku has the potential to project as a top-12 Fantasy TE for 2022 with Watson leading Cleveland's offense.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Diontae Johnson has emerged as a true target hog in Pittsburgh over the past two seasons, and Chase Claypool has demanded targets and air yards at a high per-route rate during his first two seasons. On top of that, rookies Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth both proved to be dependable pass-catchers capable of taking a healthy share of the short-yardage targets. There were lots of mouths to feed in Pittsburgh and no passer proven capable of facilitating that type of volume.

So, in leaving Pittsburgh in favor of a Patrick Mahomes-led offense that just traded away a massive 25 percent of the team's 2021 targets and 35 percent of the air yards, Smith-Schuster stands out as a clear winner from the free agency period.

And while a statistical resurgence is likely as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, a deeper dive into Smith-Schuster's data as a member of the Steelers doesn't inspire any confidence that he is likely to return to the level of play that we saw from him early in his career.

Smith-Schuster has seen his yard per route run efficiency decrease in every season following his rookie campaign.

JuJu's yard per route run rate by season:

2.17 -- 2017
2.08 -- 2018
1.49 -- 2019
1.29 -- 2020
0.88 -- 2021

Some context is necessary, at this point.

Ben Roethlisberger played just 1.5 games in 2019. Smith-Schuster's first major drop in efficiency came in a season quarterbacked by Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges.

In 2020 and 2021, Smith-Schuster ran the least Fantasy-friendly route tree of any qualified wide receiver. His route tree was much more in line with what you might expect from a tight end.

Smith-Schuster's average route depth dropped from 7.0 yards during the 2017-2019 seasons to 5.8 in 2020 and 2021. His average depth of target dropped from 9.1 to 5.7 yards. He ranked dead last among qualified receivers in both categories.

With a subpar offensive line and a quarterback on his last legs, the Steelers used the slot and tight end positions as short-yardage security blankets. There aren't many players who would produce exciting Fantasy results while filling the role that Smith-Schuster has over the past two seasons.

So, I was prepared to give Smith-Schuster a pass for his horribly inefficient 2020-2021 seasons. But, the more that I dug into Smith-Schuster's data, the less inspired I felt to believe that he is just a victim of circumstance. His route data seems to point more towards the likelihood that Smith-Schuster is simply nowhere near the player that we saw take the league by storm as a 21-year-old.

If the primary culprit behind Smith-Schuster's efficiency dip was truly the change in his route tree, it would make sense for him to have maintained similar efficiency on the downfield route running opportunities that he did get. Well, that's not exactly true, as the circumstances that affect Smith-Schuster's efficiency on those routes change on a year-to-year basis. The more accurate statement is that Smith-Schuster should have maintained similar production relative to his teammates on downfield route running opportunities.

Comparing Smith-Schuster's efficiency to his teammates on the same types of routes is as close as we are going to get to an objective presentation on how Smith-Schuster's downfield route running effectiveness has evolved over his five seasons as a pro. And the results are certainly not encouraging.

JuJu's target per route rate on routes that developed five or more yards downfield:
(The difference between Smith-Schuster and Pittsburgh's team average)

2018 -- 22.8% (+20%)
2019 -- 15.2% (-5%)
2020-21 -- 17.1% (-13%)

Smith-Schuster was 20 percent more likely to draw a target than his teammates on routes that developed five or more yards downfield in 2018. His rate dropped hard with the QB change in 2019, and he was actually five percent less likely to draw a target than the average Pittsburgh pass-catcher.

Even with Big Ben back for the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Smith-Schuster still proved to be significantly less likely to draw a target on routes with an average depth of five or more yards.

JuJu's yard per route rate on routes that developed five or more yards downfield:
(The difference between Smith-Schuster and Pittsburgh's team average)

2018 -- 1.99 (+30%)
2019 -- 1.56 (+34%)
2020-21 -- 1.25 (-9%)

Wow. Smith-Schuster was notably less efficient on these routes over the past two seasons than he was even during the 2019 season with Rudolph and Hodges at QB. That is a major red flag. He was really, really good with his downfield routes in the early stages of his career -- in 2018, JuJu had a higher yard per route run rate on these routes than Antonio Brown did!

Here is how JuJu fared relative to his teammates on routes that came even deeper (at least 10 yards) downfield across the past four seasons:

JuJu's target per route rate on routes that developed 10 or more yards downfield:
(The difference between Smith-Schuster and Pittsburgh's team average)

2018 -- 23.5% (+28%)
2019 -- 16% (+14%)
2020-21 -- 12.8% (-26%)

After being significantly more likely than his teammates to draw a target on downfield routes to begin his career, Smith-Schuster has been completely ignored on downfield routes across the past two seasons.

JuJu's yard per route rate on routes that developed 10 or more yards downfield:
(The difference between Smith-Schuster and Pittsburgh's team average)

2018 -- 2.30 (+42%)
2019 -- 1.40 (+35%)
2020-21 -- 1.28 (+7%)

Again, Smith-Schuster's early-career numbers indicate that he had the ability to be one of the league's most explosive downfield playmakers. He had 12 fewer routes within the 2018 subset than Antonio Brown, yet he produced more total yardage.

Even across the 2020-2021 seasons, Smith-Schuster was able to outproduce his teammates on downfield routes. Claypool, Johnson, and James Washington all were more efficient with their downfield routes, but Smith-Schuster at least finished fourth behind them. Still, though, he is clearly not the same player who piled up over 1,400 yards in 2018.

No matter how you slice it, Smith-Schuster is a Fantasy winner after this free agency period. His advanced data does not provide any reason to believe that he is going to again post the type of efficiency rates that he once proved capable of, though. In fact, it appears entirely possible that Smith-Schuster is just a league-average player at this point in his career.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos

Injuries and poor QB play have hindered the former 15th overall selection to this point, but things are looking up heading into Year 3. Of course, the upgrade from Teddy Bridgewater to Russell Wilson stands to benefit any Denver pass-catcher. Jeudy, specifically, is the Bronco whose data points towards being the best stylistic fit with Wilson.

Wilson and Bridgewater have almost identical splits vs. man coverage, with Bridgewater actually ranking ahead of Wilson in some categories. But the difference is night and day when it comes to their splits vs. zone coverage. Wilson has been one of the NFL's best passers vs. zone, which opposing defenses use roughly two-thirds of the time. This is big news for Jeudy, who has been far and away Denver's best weapon vs. zone schemes.

Wilson's splits vs. zone coverage aren't the only factor favoring Jeudy as we speculate on which Broncos pass-catcher is likely to see the biggest boost after the QB change. I took a look at Wilson's tendencies in targeting specific route types and came away with two clear takeaways:

Wilson's propensity for targeting his crossing routes is what we'll focus on specifically for Jeudy.

For help reading the table below:

Route% = The percentage of a player's total routes that were crossing routes
So, 9.8 percent of all the routes run across the NFL in 2021 were crossing routes. 10.1 percent of Seattle's routes were crossing routes. 14.2 percent of Jeudy's routes in 2021 were crossing routes, down slightly from 14.6 percent across his career.

TPRR = Target per route run rate on crossing routes
So, 22 percent of crossing routes resulted in a target across the NFL in 2021. Russ targeted his crossing route 24 percent of the time. Jeudy drew a target on 27.8 percent of his crossing routes, compared to just 11.3 percent for Tim Patrick.

YPRR = Yard per route run rate on crossing routes
Wilson's pass-catchers averaged 2.4 yards per route run on crossing routes, well above the league average of 1.81. Jeudy stood out even further above the average, with an eye-popping 3.86-yard rate.

This subset does not cast a favorable light on Sutton or Patrick, who were among the NFL's least efficient route runners on crossing routes in 2021.

Nearly everyone expected Jeudy to be a highly effective route runner at the NFL level, and he's done nothing to disprove that in his first two years. With a passer proficient in producing when targeting the routes that Jeudy thrives in, a Year 3 breakout feels imminent. 

Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Denver Broncos

Few tight ends have been more efficient on a per-route basis than Albert Okwuegbunam since he entered the league. Will that efficiency translate over a larger sample size now that Noah Fant is out of the picture?

Albert O has been targeted at a higher per-route rate than Travis Kelce over the past two years! He isn't just drawing targets at a high rate, Okwuegbunam is also converting them into yardage.

If the Broncos don't add a tight end who is a threat to Okwuegbunam's playing time, there's a realistic chance that he steps into a highly Fantasy-relevant role in Year 3.

One of the most important rates to track for tight ends is their route involvement rate -- or the percentage of the team's total dropbacks on which they run a route. You can't draw a target if you aren't running a route, and the percentage of dropbacks on which a team asks their tight end to stay in and block varies widely from team to team.

When healthy in 2021, Noah Fant's route involvement rate typically hovered between 70 and 80 percent while sharing the field with Okwuegbunam. When Albert O missed time with injury, Fant's route involvement rate spiked to 93 percent.

It would be irresponsible to pencil Okwuegbunam in for a 93 percent route involvement rate, but what might his target load look like with a 70-80 percent rate?

The Broncos dropped back to pass 602 times in 2021, which ranked 24th in the NFL. It seems likely that number will increase with Wilson under center, but to be conservative, let's just use 602. If we give Albert O a 70-80 percent route involvement rate out of 602 available routes, he would run 421-482 routes.

Let's assume that his career 24.7 percent target per route run rate is a bit bloated as a result of the small sample size. We'll project him for a more modest 23 percent rate. If Okwuebunam drew a target on 23 percent of his 420-480 routes, the result would be a target range of 97-111.

Here are the tight ends who fell in that range in 2021, followed by their Fantasy finish at the position:

94 targets -- George Kittle -- TE3
104 targets -- Dalton Schultz -- TE4
110 targets -- Kyle Pitts -- TE5
111 targets -- Mike Gesicki -- TE11

Let's also assume that his career 2.02 yard per route run rate drops. We'll lower it to 1.75. Even with a conservative projection in both route volume and yard per route run efficiency, Albert O's yardage range would still be 735-840.

Here are the tight ends who fell in that range in 2021, followed by their Fantasy finish at the position:

763 yards -- Zach Ertz -- TE8
780 yards -- Gesicki -- TE11
802 yards -- Rob Gronkowski -- TE10
808 yards -- Schultz -- TE4
830 yards -- Dallas Goedert -- TE6

From a projected volume standpoint, the most likely outcomes for Albert O at this point seem to be Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, and Mike Gesicki. And again, the projections we used here are conservative compared to the rates Okwuegbunam has sustained to this point in his career.