Fantasy Football 2021: Rookie RB class showing encouraging early-career target per route run data

D'Andre Swift has been an absolute cheat code for Fantasy football players in 2021. Swift was drafted as a low-end RB2 -- somewhere between the RB15-RB20 range -- in most leagues, but he ranks as the RB10 in half-PPR and RB5 in PPR formats through the season's first 10 weeks.

How has Swift put up such gaudy Fantasy totals while playing in one of the worst NFL offenses in recent memory? The answer is simple and was predictable entering 2021: targets. In the same number of games, Swift is within three targets of Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, and DK Metcalf for the season. He has out-targeted Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins. He is an absolute target magnet, and that is the name of the game when searching for upside at the RB position in Fantasy.

SportsLine Fantasy analyst Jacob Gibbs was one of few experts who had Swift ranked as a top-12 Fantasy RB entering 2021, and the primary driving force behind his lofty projection was the impressive target per route run rate from Swift's rookie season. If you are unfamiliar with target per route run rate, Gibbs covered the metric in detail this offseason. He also recently published this article, highlighting the biggest target per route run risers and fallers from the 2020 to 2021 season.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the data we have on the 2021 rookie RB class and found some exciting nuggets. One player who really stands out is New York's electric rookie playmaker Michael Carter. Carter has shown an ability to handle an early-down workload, and when given the opportunity to handle any sort of substantial route involvement, Carter has been targeted at an enticing rate. The sample size isn't quite large enough to trust yet, but Carter has actually been targeted at a higher per-route rate during his rookie season than Swift was in 2020.

So which receivers and tight ends have seen their TPRR rate jump the most? And which disappointing players can be linked to a fall in TPRR rate? ... Join SportsLine here to see the complete data and which players you should focus on over the remainder of the 2021 season!

2021 rookie RB target per route run leaders

(Routes run in parentheses. 350 is the number of routes I typically use as a qualifier if examining a full season's worth of data, but there is a notable dropoff in volatility around the 150-route mark as well.)

27.4% -- Michael Carter (164)
26% -- Kenneth Gainwell (123)
23.3% -- Chuba Hubbard (120)
21% -- Najee Harris (267)
19.5% -- Javonte Williams (149)
11.2% -- Khalil Herbert (89)
9% -- Eli Mitchell (100)

For comparison: Some recent rookie RB rates

(In parentheses: the RBs target per route run rate in the following years, if they ran at least 200 routes.)

2020 rookie RB target per route run leaders

25.2% -- D'Andre Swift (25.2%)

24.2% -- Antonio Gibson (n/a)
21% -- James Robinson (17.6%)
19.2% -- Jonathan Taylor (20.5%)
18.9% -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (n/a)
11.1% -- J.K. Dobbins (n/a)
10.4% -- Zack Moss (n/a)

2019 rookie RB target per route run leaders

24.7% -- Tony Pollard (20.1% in 2020 ==> 28.1% in 2021)
19.9% -- Miles Sanders (17.6% ==> n/a)
16.5% -- Ty Johnson (n/a ==> 21%)
15.1% -- Devin Singletary (15.7% ==> 15.9%)
14.6% -- David Montgomery (17.4% ==> n/a)

2018 rookie RB target per route run leaders

25.7% -- Saquon Barkley (19.4% ==> n/a ==> n/a)
23.4% -- Nyheim Hines (26% ==> 28.9% ==> 28.9%)
23.1% -- Kerryon Johnson (n/a)

2017 rookie RB target per route run leaders

35.9% -- Tarik Cohen (29.6% ==> 28.8% ==> n/a)
34.4% -- Alvin Kamara (31.4% ==> 28.1% ==> 31% ==> 24.3%)
28.7% -- Austin Ekeler (27.9% ==> 29.8% ==> 27.7% ==> 23.3%)
25.2% -- Christian McCaffrey (25.2%  ==> 24.9% ==> n/a ==> n/a)
22% -- Leonard Fournette (n/a ==> 20.7% ==> 21.8% ==> 23.2%)
21.7% -- Joe Mixon (20.1% ==> 18.7% ==> n/a ==> n/a)
20.8% -- Kareem Hunt (n/a)
20.5% -- Marlon Mack (n/a)
17% -- Jamaal Williams (14.9% ==> 22.3% ==> 17.4% ==> n/a)

2016 rookie RB target per route run leaders

16.5% -- Jordan Howard (16.8% ==> 13% ==> n/a)
15.1% -- Ezekiel Elliott (14.2% ==> 23.1% ==> 15.3% ==> 18.3%)

Takeaways: Don't start extrapolating yet

Before I get into my specific takeaways from this data, I'd like to add some context. The rookie year route run qualifying number that I used was 150 because I wanted to bring you as large of a sample size as I could.

That's not very many routes, though. And even with a low route run qualifier, I still only had a 21-player sample to draw conclusions from.

So, understand that we're dealing with relatively unreliable data here. It is interesting, but not necessarily information that I would consider to be predictive. With that said, here is what I took away from this data:

• On average, the target per route run rate among the RBs listed above dropped by 13.7 percent from Year 1 to Year 2.

Of course, this was a surprising revelation. I am mostly chalking it up to randomness as a result of the Year 1 data coming on such a small sample size. You could think of the 13.7 percent dip as less of a step backward and more as a simple statistical correction for players with wildly unsustainable rookie rates (Tarik Cohen and Alvin Kamara, namely).

• On average, the rookie year target per route run rate among the RBs listed above had increased by 1.6% by Year 3.

Year 4 rates were up by roughly one percent as well. Those two facts in conjunction could point towards the likelihood of some progression over time, even if a player's rookie year rate was inflated. 

• Not a single rookie with a rate of 25 percent or higher saw that rate rise in Year 2.

Including D'Andre Swift, we have a seven-player sample of rookies with rates north of 25 percent invariably seeing regression to that rate in Year 2. This fact does not guarantee that the rates for Michael Carter and Kenneth Gainwell are going to drop, but it does provide a reason for tempering expectations. We shouldn't just extrapolate year-over-year growth starting from a rookie's TPRR rate -- or, at least, the recent data that we have suggests that we are likely to be disappointed if we do.

Final Word: No surprise, target per route run data isn't as predictive at RB as it is at WR

So, we shouldn't assume that just because a rookie RB is being targeted at a Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara-like rate that they will produce like those players as their career progresses. There doesn't seem to be much year-over-year predictability attached to rookie year RB TPRR rates.

I still believe that we have some valuable data here, though!

Another way to frame it: high rookie TPRR rates don't guarantee future target upside, but a low rate does seem to preclude it

It is true that we can't expect a rookie RB's target per route run rate to be predictive of even higher rates in the future with the same type of confidence that we can at the WR position. There are still actionable takeaways to be found, though!

Target upside is more often born of outlier route running opportunity than outlier target per route run ability. But, my research indicates that players rarely find themselves faced with outlier route running opportunities without first showcasing outlier target per route run ability.

Over the past five seasons, there have been 25 instances of a running back finishing a season with at least 80 targets. 21 of those instances involved a running back who ran enough routes as a rookie to qualify. Of those 22 instances, only three times was the player an RB who was targeted on fewer than 20 percent of his routes as a rookie.

The three outliers among that group, along with their rookie year TPRR rate:

17.8% -- Todd Gurley
15.1% -- Ezekiel Elliott
14.2% -- Carlos Hyde

It's worth noting that none of those three reached the 100-target mark, and only Zeke topped 90.

I broke that group down into different target thresholds to better illustrate the types of rookie year TPRR rates that have typically resulted in massive target upside.

80-target threshold

Sample size: 22 players
Average rookie TPRR rate: 25.8%
Lowest rate in the group: 14.2%

The percentage of 80-target RB seasons that came from each TPRR threshold:

Rookie TPRR above 20% -- 81.8%
Rookie TPRR above 22% -- 72.7%
Rookie TPRR above 24% -- 59.1%
Rookie TPRR above 26% -- 40.1%
Rookie TPRR above 28% -- 36.4%
Rookie TPRR above 30% -- 31.8%

Over the past 10 seasons, 100 percent of running backs to reach the 80-target threshold have finished inside the top-12 at their position in PPR scoring formats. 83 percent have finished top-12 in half-PPR formats.

As the above rates show, accessing this type of target upside is attainable. Over 60 percent of the backs to finish with 80-plus targets in the sample I collected had a TPRR rate below 26 percent as a rookie. Over 40 percent were below 24 percent as a rookie. Posting a strong rookie year TPRR rate has generally been a prerequisite for ever reaching this type of target total in a season, but it's more of a guideline than a rule.

The same cannot be said about reaching the 100-target threshold. The data I collected indicates that an underwhelming rookie TPRR rate very well might preclude a RB from ever reaching this type of raw target upside.

100-target threshold

Sample size: 12 players
Average rookie TPRR rate: 28.1%
Lowest rate in the group: 20.1%

The percentage of 80-target RB seasons that came from each TPRR threshold:

Rookie TPRR above 20% -- 100%
Rookie TPRR above 22% -- 91.7%
Rookie TPRR above 24% -- 83.3%
Rookie TPRR above 26% -- 50%
Rookie TPRR above 28% -- 41.7%
Rookie TPRR above 30% -- 33.3%

I just want to offer another reminder that there are some really bloated TPRR rates in these groups. The rookie year rates from Tarik Cohen and Alvin Kamara are truly unprecedented. 

It is important to not overreact to the fact that the average rookie TPRR rate among 100-target backs is a massive 28.1 percent. That rate is inflated by Cohen and Kamara's presence on the list. I believe that the TPRR thresholds offer the more useful takeaways for the 100-target group.

Every single back to reach the 100-target mark over the past five years had a TPRR of at least 20 percent as a rookie! That doesn't guarantee that guys like Jonathan Taylor (19.2% rookie TPRR rate), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (18.9%), Miles Sanders (19.9%) or Javonte Williams (19.5%) will never reach the 100-target mark in their career, but it does highlight what an unexpected accomplishment it would be for them to do so.

83.3 percent of the group had a TPRR rate of at least 24 percent as a rookie. Does that mean Najee Harris (21.1 percent) is unlikely to ever access the type of target upside necessary to unlock true RB1 potential?

Finally, we arrive: What does this mean for our rookies?

Michael Carter, New York Jets
Target per route run rate: 27.4%
Routes run: 164

Carter was an explosive playmaker as a pass-catcher at UNC, and his collegiate advanced analytics profile suggested that he had the ability to draw targets at a high rate at the NFL level. For now, the passing-down reps still mostly belong to Ty Johnson. If that ever changes, Carter could pile up targets while playing for a Jets team that is almost always going to be playing from behind.

I don't have much confidence in Carter sustaining a rate above 27 percent over a larger sample, but still, it's really encouraging that he has done so thus far. He clearly stands out as the back from this rookie class that is the most likely to ever reach the 80 or 100-target thresholds at any point in his career. He's drawn targets at a much higher rate than Najee Harris or Javonte Williams, and he profiles as being much more likely to work his way into a three-down role than the next rookie back that we will discuss.

Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
Target per route run rate: 26%
Routes run: 123

Gainwell has maintained some of the league's best per-route rates all season long, which is even more impressive when you consider how infrequently the other running backs on his team have been targeted. This is a continuation of what we saw from him at the collegiate level, and while our sample of him doing it at the NFL level is small, I would expect Gainwell to continue drawing targets at an exceptionally high rate.

I have far more questions about his ability to earn consistent playing time than his ability to draw targets once he is on the field. Gainwell did not profile as an every-down player when drafted, and when faced with an opportunity to give Gainwell the opportunity that he seemed to deserve, Philadelphia instead turned to Jordan Howard. Not a good sign.

TPRR standouts such as James White and Tarik Cohen provide a glimpse into the type of rate it will likely take for him to be a Fantasy-relevant option. Those guys both were targeted at a rate north of 28 percent from the get-go, so the data we have on Gainwell thus far does not suggest that he belongs in that group. Time will tell if he has that type of target upside or not. He has shown really encouraging signs as a pass-catcher to this point, though.

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Target per route run rate: 23.3%
Routes run: 120

Chuba Hubbard was targeted on just 12.6 percent of his routes at Oklahoma State, and he has run only 120 routes thus far at the NFL, so I'm not making much of his surprisingly strong 23.3 percent rate. Mike Davis was targeted on 23.1 percent of his routes with the Panthers in 2020, and then his rate dropped to 17.6 percent in 2021.

It is encouraging that he is drawing the targets, regardless of the circumstances. But, it isn't worth overreacting to, at this point.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Target per route run rate: 21%
Routes run: 267

Harris was productive when targeted at Alabama, but he did not draw targets at an especially high rate. He posted a 17.9 percent TPRR rate in 2020 and his career rate was just 14.4 percent.

So, it is pretty dope that we have a 267-route sample size of Harris being targeted on over 20 percent of his routes as a rookie.

This has far more to do with his 2021 season-long value than his long-term outlook, but it is worth noting that Harris has been used more and more as a pass-blocker as his rookie season has progressed. In addition to being less involved as a route runner, Harris also has been targeted on a lower percentage of his routes as the season has progressed.

Harris was targeted on 24 percent of his routes prior to Pittsburgh's Week 7 bye. His rate in the three games since then: 13, 12.5, and 13.8 percent.

I will be monitoring Harris' TPRR rate closely as his rookie year wraps up -- if he is able to sustain a rate around 20 percent, I would consider that a huge W for those with Harris on their Dynasty rosters. He brings rushing volume that is only attainable to a handful of running backs, and Jonathan Taylor is really the only back from that group who has shown an ability to draw targets at a rate on par with Harris.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Target per route run rate: 19.5%
Routes run: 149

Williams' rate has fluttered above and below the 20 percent range all year, and the sample size we have has become large enough that I am beginning to feel somewhat confident in his ability to finish above that range. The Broncos have not targeted the RB position much, but Williams still has held a respectable rate all season. For reference, Melvin Gordon has been targeted on just 14 percent of his routes in 2021.

Williams had a solid career 17.5 percent TPRR rate at North Carolina -- not far off from UNC teammate and rookie year TPRR standout Michael Carter's career 18.6 percent rate. If Williams is indeed able to sustain a rate in the vicinity of 20 percent, I would consider it a really encouraging sign for his long-term outlook.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
Target per route run rate: 11.2%
Routes run: 89

Herbert was targeted on just 11.7 percent of his routes in college, so this shouldn't come as much of a surprise.

Eli Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
Target per route run rate: 9%
Routes run: 100

Mitchell had a decent college TPRR rate (14.2 percent), so I hoped to see his rate higher. The 49ers do not target the RB position at a high rate, but still, nine percent is really low.

These are the only other backs to run at least 100 routes and draw a target on less than 10 percent of them over the past five years: Marlon Mack, Carlos Hyde, LeGarrette Blount, and Gus Edwards. The best-case scenario is that Mitchell follows a path similar to former 49er Carlos Hyde. It's never a promising sign if Carlos Hyde is the best-case scenario.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

Target per route run rate: a casual 35.1%
Routes run: 37

Rhamondre Stevenson is who we thought he was. Of course, his 37-route sample size is far too small to confirm anything for us at this point. But we did see him draw targets at an excellent 23.4 percent per route rate at Oklahoma. Among 199 qualified backs across the 2019-2020 seasons, Stevenson drew targets at the seventh-highest per-route rate and ranked sixth in yards per route run.

Hopefully, we are treated to a larger sample size over the remainder of Stevenson's rookie season! He was one of my favorite players from this class, so I am ecstatic with what we have seen thus far. If Rhamondre finishes 2021 with a TPRR rate above 25 percent, that would be so exciting for his long-term outlook. Stevenson is ranked as the RB33 in my recently published Dynasty rankings update, and it is well within reason for him to push into the top-24 if the encouraging data we have on him sustains over a larger sample size.