There are three NFL games per usual on the Thanksgiving holiday, and only the primetime matchup features a pair of teams with playoff hopes as the Dolphins (5-6) visit the Packers (8-3) in the first-ever Thursday meeting between the franchises. It is only the second home game on Thanksgiving for Green Bay since 1923, and it is a 3-point favorite with a total of 47. Yes, the field might be frozen at Lambeau Field, but snow isn't in the forecast.

Of course, Detroit hosts the first Thanksgiving game every year and Dallas the second, while the primetime game rotates around. This will mark Green Bay's first time playing on Thanksgiving in back-to-back years since it faced Detroit every year from 1951-63. The Packers won in Motown last year 29-22 to improve to 15-20-2 all-time on the holiday.

The Dolphins last played on Thanksgiving in 2011 when they lost in Dallas to fall to 5-2 all-time on the holiday. Without a doubt, Miami caught a terrible break weather-wise with the schedule-makers having it visit Green Bay on a late November night instead of a nice Sunday afternoon in September or October. The Dolphins are likely looking at two more wintry games in Cleveland (Week 17) and at the Jets (Week 18). 

Miami all but surely isn't catching Buffalo for the AFC East title -- the Bills clinch Sunday with a win if the Fins lose here -- and Green Bay most likely isn't catching Detroit in the NFC North, so the wild card will be the only route to the postseason for both teams. 

The SportsLine Projection model believes the Fins have to win at least four of their final six -- if not five of six -- to get a wild card spot, but are projected to be favored just once the rest of the way (Week 14 vs. Jets). DraftKings currently gives the Dolphins odds of +230 to make the postseason and -300 to miss out. The model gives them a 15.4% shot, which equates to +540. With a win here, that jumps to 26.6% (+276) and while a loss drops it to 9.1% (+1000).

Green Bay is -1600 to reach the playoffs and +800 to not at the books, while the model gives the Packers a 96.2% shot, which equates to -2532. With a win, that number rises to 96.7% and with a loss drops to 87.9% (-726). 

We'll take you through every aspect of the Dolphins-Packers game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.

Who wins Dolphins vs. Packers in the Week 13 Thursday night game, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread hit HARD? Join SportsLine right now to see everything you need to know about the game in the Thursday night matchup to kick off Week 13 of the 2024 season!