DFS: College Football Week 3 Lineup Optimizer
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We've got 15 games to choose from in Saturday's big early college football slate at FanDuel, and there are expected to be plenty of fireworks. Our Lineup Optimizer projects Ohio State to score 52 on Northern Illinois and Oregon to drop 67 on Georgia State, which is to be expected. However, those aren't the only fireworks we're anticipating.
One surprisingly high-scoring matchup we're planning on taking advantage of with the optimal lineup is the one between Indiana and Western Kentucky. Both teams have lit up the scoreboard this season without doing much to slow their opposition, and we've got them combining for 78 points Saturday. That's actually better than the Oklahoma-Tulsa game, though feel free to target that one as well, with Oklahoma projected for 56 points.
One thing to keep in mind is the status of Vernon Adams; the Optimizer loves him, but he is a game-time decision with a finger injury. If he doesn't play, you can save a few bucks elsewhere and pay up for Baker Mayfield from the Sooners, but there aren't a ton of other enticing options. Nate Sudfeld, Gunner Kiel and Kyle Allen all are priced within $200 of Adams, but none is expect to score more than 22 FD points. If Adams doesn't play, you could be in for a very touch decision this week.
Here is the Optimal Lineup for FanDuel's early college football slate, as of 12:30 p.m. ET Friday.
Note: The Optimizer will produce multiple lineups throughout the week based on news and other factors leading right up to kickoff. The lineup Chris spotlights in his column may be significantly different than the lineup you receive from the Optimizer later.
Oregon QB Vernon Adams vs. Georgia State $8,400
Key Stat: Top projected player of the slate
This is a really risky call, with Adams considered a game-time decision after breaking his finger last week. Adams got off to a great start, scoring twice and rushing for 94 yards in addition to posting nearly 250 passing yards in the season opener, but he turned the ball over twice and had just six yards on the ground last week against Michigan State. This Saturday's game would be a nice bounceback opportunity for him, but you have to worry about the injury, as well as the potential for an early removal against Georgia State. In a perfect world, Adams seems like a great option running this offense, but you might have to go with someone like Indiana's Nate Sudfeld or Cincinnati's Gunner Kiel, neither of whom has as much upside.
Oklahoma RB Samaje Perine vs. Tulsa $8,300
Key Stat: Scores 18+ FD points in 78 percent of simulations
Perine has received plenty of work the open the season, with 39 touches through two games, but he hasn't exactly impressed, averaging 3.3 yards per carry and 2.8 yards per reception against pretty underwhelming opposition. He was one of the best runners in the nation last season, so you have to expect things to turn around. Tulsa has allowed 579 yards on the ground through two games, so this should be the one where Perine finally gets going.
Indiana RB Jordan Howard vs. Western Kentucky $8,300
Key Stat: One of just two running backs projected for 30-plus points
Howard isn't the No. 1 running back in our projections, but his price makes him easier to fit in than Oregon's Royce Freeman, who carries an $8,900 price tag. Indiana isn't expected to put up quite as many points as Oregon, but the Hoosiers are averaging 42 points and could have another high-scoring affair on their hands. Howard is on pace for his second 1,500-yard season, and the Hoosiers seem content to continue feeding him. Between his workload and 6.5 yards per carry, it's hard to do better than Howard.
Ohio State WR Braxton Miller vs. Northern Illinois $7,100
Key Stat: No. 1 projected player at position
Miller's second game wasn't quite as explosive as his first, but you still have to be very encouraged by what he has done so far. Miller has 18 touches in two games, and is averaging 11.8 yards per touch. He is a threat to take the ball to the house every time he touches it in the passing or running game, and the Buckeyes are pretty clearly featuring him. With Ohio State projected to drop 50-plus on the Huskies, we think Miller has a great chance to find the end zone. There are other receivers we like more from the later games, but Miller dominates the projections for the early slate.
Virginia Tech WR Isaiah Ford @ Purdue $6,300
Key Stat: Scores 15+ FD points in 50 percent of simulations
Ford found the end zone six times as a freshman, and is on pace to easily eclipse that mark in his second season at the school; he already has three scores in the team's first two games. The Hokies are projected to put a lot of points on the board in their matchup against Purdue, and Ford is clearly the top option in the passing game, as he leads the team in every relevant receiving category.
Cincinnati WR Chris Moore @ Miami (Ohio) $5,300
Key Stat: Hits value in 76 percent of simulations
Moore is off to a slow start this season, but he showed a lot of big-play potential when he tallied three touchdowns in his final four games of the 2014 season. The last time he faced this Miami team, he scored a 12-yard touchdown, and he remains one of the best big-play receivers in the offense.
Virginia Tech TE Ryan Malleck @ Purdue $2,000
Key Stat: No. 2 tight end of the week
Malleck has scored in each of his last two games and three of his last four, so you have to like him as a rare high-upside play at the position. If he doesn't score, he won't have much value, as he is averaging 24.3 yards per game over his last four, but as a punt option, you could do worse.
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