DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy football ranking: 2020 outlook, projections, ADP, value, predictions, stats

DeAndre Hopkins is one of the most divisive players for the Fantasy community entering 2020. He is the only receiver in the NFL to finish inside the top-four in Fantasy points at the WR position in each of the past three seasons, and many still consider him that caliber of Fantasy player as a result. His situation in Arizona is much different than the Fantasy-friendly role he occupied in Houston, though, which may result in Hopkins being one of the most overrated Fantasy players this season. Where should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings, and what DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy football outlook can you expect?

Hopkins' remarkable Fantasy output has been supported by an equally unique target share from Deshaun Watson, but he finds himself in a new situation for the first time in his career. The Houston Texans traded away their star receiver in exchange for running back David Johnson and draft picks earlier this summer, in one of the most shocking moves in recent NFL memory. The trade was great news for David Johnson, who now gets a real chance at a career revival. Players such as Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, and WIll Fuller all saw a boost in Fantasy value as well, but what about Hopkins?

The 2020 DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 100-catch campaign. He's a first-round candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:

So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)

No. 10.3 ADP
No. 4 WR (non-PPR)
No. 2 WR (PPR)

DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model) 

150 targets, 101 receptions, 1,195 receiving yards, 7.8 receiving TDS
167 Fantasy points (non-PPR); 268 (PPR)

DeAndre Hopkins 2020 Fantasy outlook 

From a volume perspective, there simply hasn't been a receiver like Hopkins recently. He's the only wideout to finish with a target market share of at least 30 percent in each of the past three seasons. He also is the only one with an air yards market share of at least 40 percent in each season.

Expecting him to repeat such an unprecedented level of volume in a new offensive system takes quite the leap of faith.

The Cardinals didn't have a receiver even top 110 targets last season, as Kyler Murray spread the ball around evenly. Christian Kirk led the team with a 23 percent target market share, and four receivers finished with a target share of at least 10 percent.

Not only is Hopkins likely to see fewer targets in Arizona, but the targets he sees will likely be less accurate than what he has grown accustomed to while playing with Watson. Watson ranked ahead of Murray in nearly every advanced passing metric in 2019, and his pass-catchers saw a catchable target 75.6 percent of the time. Murray's catchable target rate came in at a respectable 74.6 percent in his rookie season, but that was boosted a bit by the amount of throws that went to the RB position. As proof, Hopkins' catchable target rate of 75.3 percent was markedly higher than that of Larry Fitzgerald (72.1 percent), Christian Kirk (71.7 percent), or KeeSean Johnson (60 percent).

As if that wasn't enough bad news, Hopkins will have fewer opportunities to take advantage of lesser defenders from the slot in 2020.

The upside is there for Hopkins to still end up finishing 2020 as a top-three Fantasy wideout, but there is enough risk here to easily pass on him for Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Julio Jones if picking among the top tier of Fantasy receivers. I actually have him ranked significantly below consensus, as he comes in as my WR9 with the almost guaranteed drop in volume.