Computer updates Texans' projected win total

The Houston Texans have made the NFL playoffs in four of the last five seasons, and so far in six seasons under head coach Bill O'Brien they've only had a losing record once. However, most still found it curious when the Texans made O'Brien their new general manager, giving him complete control over football operations.

But as they entered the 2020 NFL offseason with a franchise quarterback in place, one of the game's best wide receivers, a top-10 rushing attack and a defense with playmakers like Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt, the franchise still looked on track to compete for a postseason spot again. However, a curious move to begin the 2020 NFL offseason has changed the narrative considerably for the Texans.

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O'Brien elected to trade All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals along with a 2021 fourth-round pick in exchange for running back David Johnson, a second-round pick and a fourth-round pick. It was later reported that there were tensions between O'Brien and Hopkins, but when you consider that the Vikings got a first-round pick and change for Stefon Diggs, it was still a puzzling decision.

The Texans also lost defensive tackle D.J. Reader in free agency, though they did manage to sign wide receiver Randal Cobb and free safety Eric Murray. Houston still has roughly $35.9 million in remaining salary cap space and could continue to be active in NFL free agency and on the trade market, but at least some of that money is probably being stashed away to do a new contract for Deshaun Watson.

However, as if the Hopkins trade itself wasn't enough, Watson has seemed pretty upset on social media about the loss of his No. 1 wide receiver. He still has Will Fuller and Kenny Stills out wide, but the Texans will probably need to add a future No. 1 option in the 2020 NFL Draft to keep their starting quarterback happy.

And the Texans ultimately need to upgrade defensively too, after finishing 18th in points allowed and 26th in total defense after J.J. Watt missed half the season with a torn pectoral muscle. That leaves the Texans with a lot of ground to cover to contend in an increasingly tough AFC South and the SportsLine Projection Model doesn't love Houston's chances. The model simulated the 2020 NFL scheduled 10,000 times and predicts the Texans win the division just 17.9 percent of the time.

The Texans win an average of 7.7 games in simulations and make the postseason 35.4 percent of the time. That is a slight drop from the 7.8 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency, but an improvement from the 7.0 wins it predicted immediately after the Hopkins trade. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Texans at 60-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which is tied for eighth-worst odds in the NFL.