Computer updates Panthers' projected win total

It's only been a little over four years since the Carolina Panthers were in the Super Bowl, but after a disappointing 5-11 season that led to Ron Rivera's firing and has Cam Newton on the verge of ouster, the Panthers are on the verge of a full-scale rebuild. To make matter worse, Luke Kuechly retired earlier in the offseason and now the Panthers will have to find a new centerpiece to build their defense around.

Former Baylor head coach Matt Rhule has been given the reins in Carolina and he'll look to make the NCAA to NFL transition that has been difficult for so many other top college coaches. And his first order of business has been to make a change at quarterback.

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The Panthers signed Teddy Bridgewater to a three-year, $63 million contract and are now in the process of trying to find a trade partner for Cam Newton, who will likely be released soon if a trade can't be worked out. Bridgewater proved he's still a capable decision-maker in relief of Drew Brees for the Saints in 2019 and gives the Panthers a stopgap option with upside to be a franchise quarterback while they look to the NFL draft for a potential long-term option.

Unfortunately, the Panthers have taken some hits on defense in NFL free agency, with James Bradberry, Mario Addison, Gerald McCoy all moving on. They did manage to add former Vikings defensive end Stephen Weatherly, but it's become pretty clear that Rhule will look to the draft to complete rework a defense that finished 31st in the NFL in points allowed last season.

Ultimately, this is looking like a long-term rebuild for Rhule and the Panthers. They've only got about $14.4 million in cap space remaining, so there isn't much left for them to do in free agency save a few minor moves. Rhule's first draft class may come to define his entire tenure with the Panthers and that's now the primary focus of this offseason.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates the entire NFL season 10,000 times and based on all the latest movement in free agency, the model is predicting that the Panthers win 5.2 games on average in 2020. Carolina makes the postseason in just 1.9 percent of projections.

That's a fairly significant drop from the 5.9 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Panthers at 125-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which are the fourth-longest odds in the NFL.