Computer simulation for the NFC West
Only the Philadelphia Eagles have a better chance of winning their NFC division than the Los Angeles Rams, says the SportsLine Projection Model, which gives Sean McVay's squad a 59.8 percent shot at clinching the NFC West. In a shocker, it's also predicting the San Francisco 49ers to notch 8.2 victories this season after a 6-10 campaign in 2017. The Seattle Seahawks' standing as the division stalwart is wading as the model is foreseeing only 8.1 wins. And it could be a long slog for the Arizona Cardinals, who have a 5.3 percent shot at taking the division.
Here's a look at what the computer is projecting in the NFC West.
Los Angeles Rams
Projected wins: 9.9
Division win percentage: 59.8
Postseason percentage: 72.6
San Francisco 49ers
Projected wins: 8.2
Division win percentage: 17.5
Postseason percentage: 33.8
Seattle Seahawks
Projected wins: 8.1
Division win percentage: 17.4
Postseason percentage: 31.9
Arizona Cardinals
Projected wins: 6.7
Division win percentage: 5.3
Postseason percentage: 11.2
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Division preview: Based on SportsLine's prediction model, there is less than a two-game spread between projected first-place winner Los Angeles and third-place Seattle, which could mean a competitive race in one of the league's toughest divisions. Can the 49ers live up to the high expectations? Will the Cardinals, with new signal caller Sam Bradford, avoid the NFC West cellar? And is this the season the Rams make it to the Super Bowl?
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Despite an incredible 11-5 season in 2017, the computer is muting the 2018 Rams' division hopes, penciling them in for 9.9 wins. With another year acclimating to McVay's philosophy and Jared Goff's comfort level running the offense on the rise, Los Angeles is expected to vie for a conference championship. Defensively, this team is a juggernaut with the likes of Aaron Donald (assuming he ends his holdout), Ndamukong Suh and Aqib Talib. There's no reason to think the Rams can't win 11, 12 or even 13 games.
After a disastrous 1-10 start, The 49ers swept their final five games behind quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The SportsLine Projection Model believes San Francisco stays on the upswing, racking up 8.2 wins and a better than one-third chance to at least snatch a wild card. Former Viking Jerick McKinnon is now the primary backfield weapon while Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon are the main receiving threats. San Francisco was held to 10 points or less in five of their first nine 2017 contests, but in Garoppolo's final four starts, it scored at least 25 points in each.
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For the first time since 2011, Pete Carroll's second season in Seattle, the 2017 Seahawks failed to hit the 10-win mark. The computer indicates that's a bad sign, which is why it's not high on their chances to win the division. The Seahawks have a 17.4 percent chance to take the NFC West -- slightly less than the Niners. Once the bedrock of the team's success, Seattle's defense was to blame for many of their losses as five times it allowed at least 30 points. With so many new bodies adjusting to unfamiliar schemes, the Hawks' growing pains could prevent them from hitting the .500 mark.
There are plenty of ifs regarding the 2018 edition of the Cardinals. If Sam Bradford can regain his magic touch as a Viking before injuries shut him down, the Cards can vie for the NFC West. Another if is if David Johnson can confidently take the field and grind out first downs for an offense likely to struggle. And the ultimate if is if Larry Fitzgerald can continue his high Hall-of-Fame level of play for a 15th season. New coach Steve Wilks will have his hands full putting all the pieces together and the Cards' 5.3 percent chance to win the division seems about right.
While the SportsLine Projection Model gives the Rams the clear edge in winning a second straight division crowd, keep an eye on the upstart 49ers and the always competitive Seahawks to apply plenty of pressure. The NFC West could come down to a Week 17 showdown when the Rams host the 49ers.
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