Computer simulation breaks down the AFC West

SportsLine's advanced computer has simulated the entire 2018 NFL season 10,000 times to come up with projected wins, division and playoff odds for each team in the AFC West.

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Here's a look at what the computer is calling for in the 2018 AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected wins: 9.5

Division win percentage: 44.6

Postseason percentage: 67.2

Los Angeles Chargers

Projected wins: 9.3

Division win percentage: 43.4

Postseason percentage: 64.8

Denver Broncos

Projected wins: 7.3

Division win percentage: 8.8

Postseason percentage: 22.2

Oakland Raiders

Projected wins: 5.9

Division win percentage: 3.1

Postseason percentage: 7.8

Division preview: The Chiefs and Chargers are the teams to beat, according to SportsLine's prediction model. The squads finished No. 1 and No. 2 in 2017, far ahead of the Raiders and Broncos. Surprisingly, Oakland has just a 3.1 percent shot for the division crown despite a healthy Derek Carr and the return of Jon Gruden.

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After a crushing home loss to the Tennessee Titans in the wild-card round, the Chiefs dumped Alex Smith to commence the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs will prove difficult to corral on offense with the likes of Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. A strong defense that held 10 of its 16 opponents to 20 points or less last season mostly remains intact from the 2017 edition. SportsLine's prediction of 9.5 wins is based partly on Kansas City's brutal first six games that include trips to Los Angeles, Pittsburgh and New England and a home date with Jacksonville.

Does the name Younghoe Koo ring any bells? It may not jog your memory, but any mention of him within whispering range of Chargers fans will assuredly will elicit a chorus of groans. Koo was Los Angeles' placekicker who had his Week 1 field goal attempt blocked that would have forced overtime against the Broncos and missed twice in the Week 2 loss to the Dolphins. The computer gives the Chargers a 64.8 percent shot to make the postseason in 2018, now that their kicking issues have been resolved with the addition of Caleb Sturgis.

Any goodwill the Broncos' 2017 3-1 start had quickly died in an embarrassing, Week 6 primetime loss to the then-winless New York Giants. Denver never fully recovered afterward and the offense struggled to find any semblance of continuity. Shoring up their obvious weakness at quarterback, the Broncos signed Vikings signal caller Case Keenum. He's got two strong wideouts to throw to in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but the depth gets much shakier after that, reflecting Denver's slim 8.8 percent probability to win the division. 

The computer is showing no love for the Raiders, who are less than two years removed from a 12-4 campaign. The only two AFC teams the SportsLine projection model is predicting a lesser postseason chance are the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets. There are plenty of question marks on defense and how 33-year-old receiver Jordy Nelson will acclimate to his new digs, but Oakland seemingly has enough weapons on offense to make a division run.

It's a two-horse race in the AFC West, according to the computer, with a wild card unlikely to emerge from the field. If Mahomes performs as well as Chiefs coach Andy Reid presumes, Kansas City would appear to have the upper hand. But if the Chargers can build off their 9-3 finish to 2017, they could become kings of the West and clinch their first division title since 2009.