Computer simulates Steelers' season 10,000 times
SportsLine's advanced prediction model has simulated the entire 2018 NFL season 10,000 times to come up with projected wins, division and playoff odds for each team in the AFC North.
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Here's a look at what the computer is calling for in the 2018 AFC North.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected wins: 9.6
Division win percentage: 50.0
Postseason percentage: 71.6
Baltimore Ravens
Projected wins: 9.7
Division win percentage: 45.0
Postseason percentage: 69.9
Cincinnati Bengals
Projected wins: 6.2
Division win percentage: 3.6
Postseason percentage: 9.5
Cleveland Browns
Projected wins: 5.3
Division win percentage: 1.4
Postseason percentage: 3.9
Division preview: Not surprisingly, the Steelers are the front-runners to claim a third consecutive division title. But what is surprising is the prediction model is giving Pittsburgh, a 13-win team in 2017, only a 50 percent shot at taking the crown.
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Provided that the explosive trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are all happy (training) campers, there's no reason to believe Pittsburgh can't be the dominant force in the AFC North. The Steelers won this division by four games in 2017, but the SportsLine prediction model indicates they will have serious competition for the top spot this year.
The Ravens, who only needed a Week 17 home victory against the 6-9 Bengals to enter the postseason as a wild card, lost that game -- and a playoff spot. The model is high on Baltimore, giving it a 69.9 percent chance to make the playoffs, but there are big question marks on defense, receiver and even on 33-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco. Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson is waiting in the wings if Flacco, who averaged less than 200 passing yards per game in 2017, turns in another mediocre season.
The computer is down on the Bengals, expecting them to eke out 6.2 wins and giving them a 3.6 percent chance to claim the AFC North. Cincinnati opened the 2017 season by getting shut out by the Ravens and ended it by playing spoiler against Baltimore. In between, there were plenty of trying times, including back-to-back losses to the Bears and Vikings by a combined score of 67-14. The Bengals don't have much of an identity, and any semblance of one is steeped in mediocrity. Expect more of the same in 2018.
No team holds more intrigue than the Browns, fresh off an 0-16 season, but sporting a lot of new faces. While newcomers Jarvis Landry, Tyrod Taylor and explosive running back Nick Chubb give Cleveland a greater chance to win than the 2017 version, the computer is still giving the Browns only a 1.4 percent shot to take the division.
To no one's shock, the prediction model believes the Steelers and Ravens are the only serious postseason contenders from the division. But the AFC North should be much more competitive from top to bottom. The projections point to a 4.4-game difference from top-rated Baltimore to bottom-rated Cleveland -- a striking disparity from the 13-game difference that separated Pittsburgh and Cleveland in 2017's final standings.
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