The Phoenix Suns (14-14) host the Dallas Mavericks (17-12) Monday in a Christmas Day matchup at Footprint Center. Dallas is coming off a 144-119 win over San Antonio on Saturday, while Phoenix dropped a 120-105 decision at Sacramento on Friday. Bradley Beal (ankle) is out for Phoenix, while Kyrie Irving (heel) is out for Dallas.

Tipoff is at 10:30 p.m. ET in Phoenix. The Suns are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Mavericks vs. Suns odds according to the SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 238.5 points. Phoenix is a -182 favorite (risk $182 to win $100) on the money line. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Suns picks or bets, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 101-52 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Suns power forward Kevin Durant has been dominant this season and has scored 27 or more points in each of the last five games. In a 109-104 loss at Portland on Tuesday, Durant poured in 40 points, while dishing out five assists and grabbing four rebounds. He scored 28 points and grabbed seven boards in Friday's loss at Sacramento.

The model has also considered that Mavericks point guard Luka Doncic is coming off a triple-double in Saturday's win over the San Antonio Spurs. In 32 minutes of action, he poured in 39 points, while grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out 10 assists. He has a franchise-best 62 triple-doubles in his career, and has 20 games this season with 30 or more points. He is averaging 32.7 points, 9.1 assists, 8.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 37 minutes of play.  

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Suns Christmas Day matchup 10,000 times, and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that hits more than 60% of the time!

So who wins Mavericks vs. Suns on Christmas Day, and which side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model on a 101-52 roll on top-rated NBA picks!