The No. 8 seed Miami Heat are hosting the No. 1 seed Boston Celtics in a pivotal Game 4 showdown on Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Boston as the 10.5-point favorite, while the over/under is 203.5 points (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the third week of the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 91-62 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Boston forward Jayson Tatum is a consistent scorer and impact player. Tatum has the ability to get a score from any spot on the court and will catch fire. He's leading the team in scoring (24.3), rebounds (9.7), and assists (6.3). In his last game, Tatum had 22 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists.

The model also knows Miami guard Tyler Herro gives the squad a nimble but agile playmaker. Herro scores from the perimeter at will and owns good vision as a passer. The former Kentucky product averages 16.7 points and 6.7 assists per contest. In Game 2, Herro had 24 points and 14 assists.

The model has simulated Celtics vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits 60% of the time!

Who wins Celtics vs. Heat, and which side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 92-61 roll on top-rated NBA picks!