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Braves vs. Phillies odds, lines: Advanced computer model reveals picks for Tuesday's NL Division Series opener

SportsLine's Projection Model has generated picks for the first NLDS game between Atlanta and Philadelphia

By@SportsLinePublished: Oct 11, 2022 3:06PM UTC . 3 min read

The Atlanta Braves begin their quest for a second consecutive world championship when they host the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday in Game 1 of their best-of-five 2022 National League Division Series. Atlanta, which won the fourth World Series title in franchise history last year, received a bye after capturing its fifth straight NL East crown. Philadelphia surprised experts by sweeping the Cardinals in St. Louis in their best-of-three NL Wild Card Series. The Braves took the season series this year, winning 11 of their 19 meetings with the Phillies.

First pitch at Truist Park is set for 1:07 p.m. ET. Atlanta is listed as a -205 favorite (risk $205 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total runs scored is 7.5. (see the latest lines for every game on our MLB odds page).

Before making any Phillies vs. Braves picks, you NEED to see the latest MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it enters the divisional round on a 20-11 roll on top-rated MLB money-line picks, returning more than $600. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

The model knows Atlanta had the second-best home record in the NL during the regular season, finishing two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers at 55-26, after going 7-1 at Truist Park last postseason. The Braves split their first six home meetings with the Phillies this year but swept a three-game series in mid-September. Matt Olson recorded 34 home runs and 103 RBI in his first season with Atlanta and was hot down the stretch, belting six shots and driving in 11 runs over his final nine contests, while left-hander Max Fried allowed fewer than three earned runs in each of his last 10 starts.

The model also knows Philadelphia limped into the postseason, losing 13 of its final 20 games - including five of seven against Atlanta, and entered the ninth inning of its Wild Card Series opener trailing 2-0 with just two hits before erupting for six runs en route to shocking 6-3 triumph. The Phillies received a tremendous pitching effort from Aaron Nola and three relievers to post a 2-0 victory in Game 2 and win their first playoff series since 2010. Left-hander Ranger Suarez went 0-2 with a 4.09 ERA in his first four starts against Atlanta this season before scattering five hits over six scoreless innings of a victory on Sept. 22.

Now, it has set its sights on Braves vs. Phillies. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any MLB picks of your own.

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