Beyond the Boxscore: Fantasy Football 2023 Week 6 Lineup Advice from proven expert

Each week, we're going to go beyond the boxscore and dive into the most interesting situations from around the NFL and discuss how they might shape the Fantasy landscape for the upcoming week. My hope is that you leave this article feeling at least a little bit more confident in the reasoning behind your lineup decisions.

I'm going to give advice in this space and hope to be right more than wrong, but most importantly, I hope that you leave these columns with a clearer and fuller understanding of what goes into my rankings here on SportsLine. I'm excited to peel back the curtain a bit and invite you to start thinking about your lineup decisions in a less linear way. We're trying to move away from this player ranks two spots higher than this player, so he's the one to start – lineup decisions are almost always more dynamic than that!

I do my best to create space to answer lineup advice questions on Twitter throughout the week, you might catch me there. My goal is to be more present and available to help SportsLine members with their Fantasy lineup decisions this season. I can't get to every question, though, so I hope that these tiers and comparisons help you feel more confident in your start/sit decisions. Below, you'll find the situations that stood out the most to me when making important lineup decisions.

If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros. Gibbs had the fourth-most accurate rankings in Week 4 and ranks 12th out of nearly 200 experts in terms of rankings accuracy on the year.

Now, Gibbs has projected every Fantasy-relevant player's stats and shared his findings for Week 6 of the 2023 season. In Week 1's lineup advice column, SportsLine users were advised to start Puka Nacua. Leading up to Week 2, Gibbs predicted a huge week from Nico Collins, and he also advised trusting Nacua and Kyren Williams even in a matchup against the 49ers. Week 3's Beyond the Boxscore highlighted Tank Dell before his 5-145-1 explosion against the Jaguars. In Week 4, Gibbs predicted Khalil Herbert getting his season on track due to the splits between Herbert and Roschon Johnson when the Bears had previously been in neutral game scripts. Last week's Beyond the Boxscore identified Arizona's strange schematic tendencies as presenting a perfect bounce-back spot for Joe Burrow and the Bengals.

One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 6: Rhamondre Stevenson. The New England running back has been one of the biggest disappointments in Fantasy, but Gibbs thinks Stevenson will find more running room because of the specific schematic fit against the Vegas run defense. Gibbs is also in rolling with several young receivers over more proven names like Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, and Garrett Wilson! You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 6? And which fill-in running backs can you trust? Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly lineup advice, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

The WR position is really difficult to sort out

There is a notable drop-off in my Week 6 trust level after the top 30 wide receivers, a tier that closes out with DeAndre Hopkins. I actually have Gabe Davis ranked higher than Hopkins to account for his upside. Davis is always a risky bet, but he's looked good lately and a blitz-heavy Giants defense gives him a chance at a ceiling performance. Davis has noticeably better splits when Josh Allen has been blitzed. Allen's average depth of target increases when blitzed, and he could definitely connect with Davis for multiple deep shots against Wink Martindale's aggressive man coverage heavy defense. I'd start Davis over Hopkins 

Ranked after Davis and Hopkins we find an amalgamation of Fantasy let-downs and young players the consensus isn't quite ready to trust yet. Terry McLaurin, Drake London, and Jerry Jeudy keep being ranked as if they're the players that the Fantasy community drafted them to be, even though they clearly are not. At this point, the sample size of 2023 data is large enough that I'd rather trust more unproven receivers such as Josh Downs, Tutu Atwell, and Wan'Dale Robinson.

Robinson's yardage ceiling is a bit capped due to his minuscule average depth of target, but New York's 2022 Round 2 pick has seen at least five targets in every game and was a target magnet when healthy as a rookie after leading college football in target per route run rate during the 2021 season. Robinson has been targeted on 26% of his routes in 2023, compare that to just 19% for London, 18% for Jeudy, and only 16% for McLaurin. Targets that those three earn will likely be more valuable than Robinson's targets. Not all targets are created equal. But these three haven't exactly been models of efficiency in 2023, and two of the three (Jeudy and McLaurin) draw brutal Week 6 matchups.

Jeudy faces a Chiefs defense that has faced some of the best wide receivers in the NFL and has yet to surrender more than 20 half-PPR points to a WR. The Broncos -- implied for only 18.5 points in Week 6 -- are again a mess, and Jeudy is doing little to help. His best Fantasy finish has been as the WR33 in Week 3.

McLaurin's Commanders have an implied team total of 19.75 against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has been even tougher on opposing receivers than the Chiefs. The Falcons use press coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and McLaurin has been significantly worse when pressed over the past two seasons. I'm worried that he's not healthy. We've seen McLaurin play through injuries in the past, and it would explain his efficiency dip in 2023. McLaurin has yet to finish higher than WR20 in any given week and has been outside of the top-30 in 3 of 5 weeks.

There's more upside with McLaurin and Jeudy than Robinson, as both players are capable of creating explosive plays at any given time. But Robinson feels much more likely to give us a score that does not hurt us. Hopefully, there's enough upside at our other roster spots to let go of the need to keep starting McLaurin and Jeudy, especially when those players are in such brutal matchups.

I compared those two to Robinson because his expert consensus ranking (WR53) is the furthest from theirs among the receivers who I have ranked ahead of Jeudy (WR34) and McLaurin (WR28). I'd clearly rather start Atwell (WR39) and Downs (WR41) than those two as well. Atwell's target share fell a bit in Cooper Kupp's return, but his route participation didn't. He's still going to have games where he pops off, and this week's matchup against Arizona could be just the spot for it. The Cardinals are the only team in the NFL with two cornerbacks ranked bottom-10 in PFF coverage grade, and we just saw them allow an egregious number of open targets to the Cincinnati Bengals. Atwell's Rams have an implied team total of 27.75 points. I would so much rather take a shot on a wide range of outcomes bet from that offense than a questionable piece of Denver or Washington's passing game.

The Gardner Minshew-led Colts have a slightly better point total (21) than the Broncos, and Downs has been targeted at a really high rate when Minshew has been running the offense.

The Colts have also produced a ton of plays with Minshew engineering drives, thanks in large part to a well-above average third-down conversion rate. I worry that could crater if the Colts offensive line is again dominated up front by the Jaguars. Indianapolis has leaned heavily on the run when Minshew has been under center, but Jacksonville has been really difficult to run against in 2023. There is a clear path to the targets coming down for Downs, and that's through Indy's run game failing to convert when the Colts need short gains to move the chains. But even in this scenario, the Colts would likely abandon the run at some point if the Jags build a large lead -- the winner of this game takes the lead in the division.

Downs feels relatively safe, and he's shown some explosive play ability over the past two weeks. I'd prefer to start Atwell if you're in need of more upside, but I don't think that the tradeoff in downside is worth it to start McLaurin or Jeudy ahead of him unless truly desperate.

I lumped London in with Jeudy and McLaurin, because he truly has not been the player that we expected. Things have looked better lately, though. And the Week 6 matchup offers immense upside for London. The Falcons have a healthy 22.25-point implied team total against Washington, and the Commanders have had some massive Fantasy WR totals dropped on their defense in 2023. So you're telling me there's a chance? I have London ranked as the WR32, just behind Hopkins and Davis and ahead of all the receivers that we just talked about.

Take a wait-and-see approach with Jonathan Taylor if you can

The only quote that I've seen regarding Jonathan Taylor's speculated increased workload in Week 6 is that the Colts are going to ramp his workload up, which feels awfully vague. We have far less vague information available to us in the form of the Week 5 Indianapolis backfield usage.

Taylor barely played last week! Zack Moss dominated the ball. Maybe we'll see things swing back towards Taylor in Week 6, but momentum certainly feels like it favors Moss at the moment. And Moss has been good for some time now! His Week 5 eruption against one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL wasn't some one-off fluke.

I'm projecting Moss to take 65% of the opportunities in Week 6, which is enough for him to project for a top-20 score at the RB position. There is, of course, some risk associated with starting either member of this backfield, so I don't have Moss ranked inside the top 20. He comes in as the RB24, just behind Pierce, Foreman, and Rachaad White and ahead of Jaleel McLaughlin, Emari Demercado, and Taylor.

I really don't want to start Taylor this week. This is not an inviting matchup, especially on the ground. If you're starting Taylor, you're hoping for 10-15 touches as a best-case scenario, right? That doesn't feel like enough in this matchup, and the potential for another game with fewer than 10 touches feels like a realistic risk.

I have Taylor ranked just ahead of McLaughlin, Samaje Perine, and Miles Sanders. I'd rather roll the dice on D'onta Foreman's workload (in an easier matchup) than Taylor's. Unless you absolutely need to be on a big game from Taylor, I'd rather start Demercado in any sort of PPR format. It's well within Taylor's range of outcomes to finish with fewer than five Fantasy points in this spot. I hope that you don't feel any need to expose yourself to that type of risk already after just five weeks of football.

Rhamondre Stevenson finally gets a breath of fresh air

The Patriots use man/gap scheme rushing at one of the highest rates in the NFL. So far, 60% of Rhamondre Stevenson's rush attempts have been man/gap scheme, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, and three of his five opponents rank top-10 in defensive rushing success rate vs. man/gap runs. 

The two opponents who don't grade out well against that specific rush scheme were the Saints and Dolphins. New Orleans hasn't allowed a rusher to top 63 yards on the ground all season. They might have struggled on a small sample size of man/gap schemed runs this season, but New Orleans is far from an advantageous matchup on the ground. And Stevenson actually found some success against the Dolphins -- that was his one top-20 Fantasy RB finish this season.

In Week 6, Stevenson draws a much more inviting matchup. Only two teams have allowed more rushing yards from man/gap concept runs than the Raiders. Las Vegas has surrendered 4.3 yards per rush (4.6 on man/gap rushes), even while facing one of the easiest opposing RB schedules in the league. The Raiders have faced the Broncos, Bills, Steelers, Austin Ekeler-less Chargers, and Aaron Jones-less Packers. Of that group, the only team that uses man/gap schemed rushes as often as the Patriots is the Bills. James Cook totaled 159 yards against the Raiders while Latavius Murray and Damien Harris chipped in 64 more yards and two touchdowns.

The Patriots offense has been so unbelievably bad that "Bill Belichick on the hot seat" narratives are popping up. Of course Stevenson's production has fallen off. It's possible that the Pats are just such a mess that we won't be able to trust their players even in the best matchups. I'm not ready to make that judgment after they predictably struggled against an unbelievably difficult opening schedule. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get a bounce-back from Stevenson and the Pats in this spot.

Stevenson currently sits at the RB20 spot in my Week 6 rankings, ahead of Dameon Pierce, Rachaad White, and Jonathan Taylor.

Sorting out the fringe starter range at each position

Those were the player-specific situations that stood out to me as worth discussing in detail this week. Each week, we'll wrap up this start/sit journey by sorting out the fringe starter range of my rankings at each position.

QB 

The number of quarterbacks I consider to be viable starters each week hovered around 23 through the first three weeks. In Week 4, that number was down to 19; in Week 5, 17. And in Week 6, there are only 15 quarterbacks I want to start, with Dak Prescott being the cut-off point. C.J. Stroud, Sam Howell, Josh Dobbs, and Brock Purdy are fine starts for those in desperate situations.

You can easily start Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa, no questions asked. Beyond that, here's how I am categorizing the position this week:

Group 1: Quarterbacks with question marks but upside to push well north of 20 Fantasy points

Tier 1 -- Kirk Cousins
Tier 2 -- Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson

If you're looking for upside, these are your guys.

Implied point total for each quarterback's team:

26.5 -- Prescott
23.5 -- Cousins
23.5 -- Burrow
21 -- Smith
18.5 -- Wilson

Prescott and the Cowboys have underperformed their implied totals lately, but bettors are backing them firmly in Week 6. The Cowboys' implied team total has been bet up from 24.25 points at open to 26.5 points already. Prescott has yet to finish any higher than QB17 in Fantasy in any given week, and he's been QB25 or lower in two of five games. A lot of that can be attributed to weird game scripts. The Cowboys are two-point road favorites, so this game should be close. And, of course, the Chargers have been torched through the air in 2023.

I'd start Prescott over Wilson, Stroud, and Purdy, and you could justify rolling with him ahead of Burrow or Smith based off of their respective point totals.

Group 2: Quarterbacks who feel like safe bets to post a score that doesn't hurt your lineup

Tier 1 -- Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence
Tier 2 -- Jared Goff

RB 

The RB position has mostly shored up after a couple of scary weeks as backfields sorted themselves out in Weeks 3 and 4. There are 20 running backs I actually want to start in Week 6, that group ends with Alexander Mattison against the Bears and Rhamondre Stevenson against the Raiders. That list will become 21 players long if we get Saquon Barkley back.

There are 11 RBs who I view as must-starts for Week 6 -- Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler Bijan Robinson, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams, David Montgomery, Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, and Raheem Mostert. Beyond that, you can find how I'm sorting out the position below.

Group 1: There's definitely upside!

Tier 1 -- Derrick Henry, James Cook, Breece Hall, Isiah Pacheco, D'Andre Swift
Tier 2 -- Brian Robinson, Alexander Mattison, Dameon Pierce, D'Onta Foreman
Tier 3 -- Jonathan Taylor, Jaleel McLaughlin

Group 2: Safe starters if you don't have a higher-upside option that you prefer

Tier 1 -- Alvin Kamara
Tier 2 -- Emari Demercado
Tier 3 -- Samaje Perine, Javonte Williams

Group 3: We're betting on volume. There's not much upside here.

Tier 1 -- Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White
Tier 2 -- Miles Sanders

Group 4: Plays that make sense in theory, but I'm not excited by their projection

Tier 1 -- Zack Moss
Tier 2 -- Jerome Ford, Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, Tyler Allgeier, Zach Charbonnet
Tier 3 -- Keaontay Ingram, Chuba Hubbard, Tyjae Spears, Jerick McKinnon, Cam Akers, Salvon Ahmed or Jeff Wilson, Kendre Miller, Clyde Edwards-Helaire

WR 

The Week 6 must-start group of wide receivers is much larger, ending with Adam Thielen and Chris Godwin as the WR18 and WR19. Here's who comes next:

Group 1: I think we can trust these players

Tier 1 -- Marquise Brown, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers
Tier 2 -- DeAndre Hopkins, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Thomas, Tutu Atwell
Tier 3 -- Josh Downs, Wan'Dale Robinson, Tyler Boyd, K.J. Osborn, Brandin Cooks

Group 2: Mystery Box

Tier 1 -- Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith
Tier 2 -- Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Gabe Davis

Group 3: Desperation Plays

Tier 1 -- Drake London, Garrett Wilson
Tier 2 -- Jerry Jeudy, Terry McLaurin, Josh Palmer
Tier 3 -- Jahan Dotson, Courtland Sutton, Rashee Rice, Josh Reynolds,
Tier 4 -- Michael Wilson, Darius Slayton, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Michael Gallup, Rondale Moore, Kadarius Toney, Trenton Irwin, Jonathan Mingo, Kalif Raymond, Brandon Powell

Group 4: I'd really rather avoid them

Tier 1 -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel, Robert Woods
Tier 2 -- DJ Chark, Quentin Johnston, Rashid Shaheed, Skyy Moore
Tier 3 -- Jalin Hyatt, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Allen Lazard, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling

TE 

Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, and Mark Andrews are the tight ends I consider must-starts for Week 6.

Group 1 -- Upside shots

Tier 1 -- Sam LaPorta, Darren Waller, Evan Engram
Tier 2 -- Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet

Group 2 -- I'm just looking for eight points, honestly

Placement in Group 2 doesn't indicate that I prefer a Group 1 TE. You can find my full Week 6 rankings here for help navigating specific positional start-sit decisions.

Tier 1 -- Zach Ertz, Dalton Schultz
Tier 2 -- David Njoku, Hunter Henry, Logan Thomas, Dawson Knox, Gerald Everett, Jonnu Smith, Tyler Higbee

Group 3 -- You can find a better option, right?

Tier 1 -- Chigoziem Okonkwo
Tier 2 -- Hayden Hurst, Tyler Conklin, Cade Otton
Tier 3 -- Adam Trautman, Kylen Granson, Durham Smythe, Mike Gesicki

Good luck with your lineup decisions this week! Be sure to hit me up on Twitter during one of the Q&A's, when I set aside time for lineup questions!

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