The ninth-seeded Baylor Bears will battle the eighth-seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs in an East Regional first-round matchup on Friday afternoon. The Bears (19-14), who tied for seventh in the Big 12 at 10-10, are making their 17th NCAA Tournament appearance, winning the national title in 2021. The Bulldogs (21-12), who tied for ninth in the SEC at 8-10, are making their 14th NCAA Tournament appearance.

Tip-off from Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., is set for 12:15 p.m. ET. Mississippi State is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Baylor vs. Mississippi State odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 144.5. 

Before making any Baylor vs. Mississippi State picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds! Anyone following could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Baylor vs. Mississippi State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in 60% of simulations!

So who wins Baylor vs. Mississippi State, and which side of the spread cashes in 60% of simulations? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that is 228-166 (+2025) on top-rated college basketball pick and has nailed 24 double-digit upsets!