Atlanta Falcons-New York Jets Odds and Picks Against the Spread

ATLANTA FALCONS-NEW YORK JETS (+4.5, O/U 45), SUN, 1 P.M. ET

The Falcons complete their four-week stretch against the AFC East in search of a first victory. They were dealt a massive disappointment last Sunday by New England, which reprised the Super Bowl win over Atlanta.

Of these three-win teams, the Jets are more upbeat, even with a spine-tingling loss Sunday at Miami. They are getting unexpectedly solid play from the QB and were more competitive against the Patriots in a recent seven-point loss than the Falcons were.

LINE MOVEMENT, TRENDS

Opening at seven, the spread dove all the way to four before moving up a half-point.

Despite getting blitzed by the Patriots, Atlanta fares better on the road (9-3 ATS in the last dozen away games than at home (3-6 ATS). The Jets are happy to be home in light of their four straight covers there.

BREAKDOWN

Who’da thunk that the Jets QB, Josh McCown, would have three more TD passes than Matt Ryan entering the matchup? In fact, Atlanta, the highest-scoring NFL team by far a year ago, has scrounged out one touchdown in the past three halves.

Coach Dan Quinn believes the Falcons have abandoned the running game that he favors, which does not put first-year coordinator Steve Sarkisian in a good light. Greater emphasis makes sense against the Jets, who allow 4.3 yards per carry.

The bright side of the Falcons’ TD drought is that peerless WR Julio Jones scored his first of the season at New England. He has been productive outside the end zone, but the team has missed his scoring.

McCown, who was not named the starter until late August, has been effective, though his floater that was picked off late in the Miami game partly undid a fine day’s work. He need not worry about interceptions by Atlanta, which has only one all year. Its total of three takeways has made things easy on offenses.

PICK

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