Are the Yankees a long shot for the postseason?
We're two weeks in, and the Cardinals still top our list when it comes to this blend of results to date and rest-of-season projections.
Rank: Numerical rank based on Power. Power: Each team's neutral win% determined when each team plays every other team on a neutral field. Each team is actually made up of 5 versions based on their #1 to #5 starters. Every match-up involves the same numerical starter (ie. Team's No. 1 starter faces every other Team's No. 1 starter). Power x 162: The PWR% multiplied by 162 games. This makes it easier to determine how good a team is for baseball purposes. Win Projection: This is the team's current forecast for season win totals, which includes actual wins plus projected wins. Playoff%: The team's chances of making the playoffs |
At this early hour of 2016, the projection portion of the calculus obviously holds sway.
That said, you're seeing some movement based on the current standings, and the Orioles have been the chief beneficiaries of those current standings.
The Cardinals remain on top, but that status will surely be tested during the ongoing three-game set against the Cubs.
To this week's SportsLine Power Ratings ...
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
1 | 62.1% | 100.6 | 99.0 | 94.9% | 1.3% | 1.3 |
The Cardinals come in with a 7-5 record and a strong +35 run differential. As you can see, they project for 99.0 wins, per SportsLine, which is tops in all of baseball. They take on the rival Cubbies in a big three-game home set this week.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
2 | 59.4% | 96.3 | 97.2 | 92.5% | 7.8% | 3.0 |
So far, so good for the Dusty Baker era. Sure, the Nats have fattened up against the Braves, Marlins, and Phillies thus far, but their impressive start speaks for itself. In the early going, Bryce Harper hasn't missed a beat coming off his NL MVP campaign in 2015.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
3 | 59.2% | 95.9 | 97.1 | 91.3% | 5.8% | 2.4 |
The Dodgers aren't particularly healthy right now, but they do sport a +24 run differential. Additionally, they've already played the Giants seven times. Dave Roberts' squad could be on the verge of a nice run, as they'll play their next 13 games against the Braves, Rockies, Marlins, and Padres.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
4 | 58.0% | 94.0 | 92.8 | 74.5% | 5.3% | 1.5 |
The Cubs' +40 run differential leads all of baseball by a comfortable margin, and they played .750 ball through 12 games. Those 12 games, though, came against the Angels, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Rockies. Still, this strong start has given the Cubs forward momentum in all categories.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
5 | 57.7% | 93.5 | 92.7 | 74.5% | -9.0% | -1.3 |
It's been a mixed bag for the Giants thus far. The investments in Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija have looked wise through six combined starts, but Matt Duffy and Denard Span have endured brutally slow starts.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
6 | 57.1% | 92.5 | 88.8 | 68.8% | 29.1% | 4.7 |
As noted above, the O's are the winners of Week 2. You can see that they improved their playoff percentage by a whopping figure of 29.2 percent, which is almost triple the next-strongest "improver." Taking two out of three in Boston was key.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
7 | 54.7% | 88.5 | 90.3 | 76.5% | -7.3% | -1.4 |
The bullpen has generally been a mess, and Russell Martin has struggled badly. However, Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista have produced in customary fashion, and they've enjoyed some pleasant surprises in the rotation. A big series against the Orioles starts Tuesday.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
8 | 53.6% | 86.8 | 87.1 | 61.3% | 10.0% | 1.8 |
The reigning champs are off to an 8-4 start, and this week they climb three slots in the rankings and add a 10 spot to their playoff percentage. Driving that early success has been a team ERA of 2.89.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
9 | 53.3% | 86.3 | 88.0 | 66.7% | 1.0% | 0.5 |
The Tribe took two out of three from the Rays and then dropped two out of three against the Mets. It's been a back-and-forth start to the season, but SportsLine still gives the Indians a two-in-three chance of making the playoffs. Michael Brantley could come off the DL this week.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
10 | 52.8% | 85.5 | 84.8 | 48.2% | 2.8% | 0.5 |
Of note: The A's are ranked ahead of two teams with higher playoff percentages. The week started off poorly, as they got swept by the Angels at home, but then they took two of three from the reigning World Series champs.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
11 | 52.7% | 85.4 | 85.8 | 54.7% | -1.1% | -0.2 |
The 'Stros went 3-4 in a week-long homestand, which cost them two spots in the ratings and pushed their playoff percentage down toward coin-flip territory. The biggest early concern is Dallas Keuchel's decreased velocity.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
12 | 52.4% | 84.8 | 89.0 | 50.2% | -10.2% | -0.7 |
Neil Walker has yet to draw a walk in 2016. How about that. Jacob deGrom is still laid up with a lat injury, and Matt Harvey has struggled with his control (and run prevention) thus far. On the upside, Noah Syndergaard looks very much poised to take the next step toward ace-dom.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
13 | 52.2% | 84.5 | 81.7 | 24.2% | -9.3% | -1.3 |
They're 14th in the AL in ERA, and among starters only Steven Wright has impressed thus far. On the other hand, the Sox are second in the AL in OBP.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
14 | 51.1% | 82.8 | 84.3 | 20.1% | 0.6% | 0.9 |
It's been mixed results for Juan Nicasio, Ray Searage's latest reclamation project, and the middle-relief corps has struggled badly. The Buccos are above .500 and about to play 13 straight against the Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks and Reds.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
15 | 50.7% | 82.0 | 81.3 | 26.4% | -4.1% | -0.6 |
Vintage Robinson Cano? So far, that's what we're seeing, at least in terms of power. This past week includes the back end of a five-game losing streak, but it also includes taking two of three from the Yankees in the Bronx.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
16 | 50.3% | 81.5 | 82.3 | 27.0% | 0.3% | 0.4 |
Here we have the last team this week that boasts a Power of 50 percent or higher. On the downside, ace Chris Archer has been very disappointing thus far, and the offense ranks 14th in the AL in runs scored.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
17 | 49.6% | 80.4 | 78.4 | 11.6% | 3.7% | 2.1 |
No, the ChiSox still project as a .500-ish team according to SportsLine, but that 8-4 start has methodically improved their odds. Perhaps most encouraging is that the Sox played just two of those first 12 games at home.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
18 | 49.2% | 79.7 | 80.1 | 16.9% | -14.2% | -2.6 |
The second week of the season was not kind to the Yankees. A 2-4 run against the Blue Jays and Mariners drops them four spots in the ratings and shaves 14.2 percent off their playoff percentage -- tops for the league this week on both counts.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
19 | 47.9% | 77.7 | 75.2 | 5.1% | -4.0% | -1.5 |
SportsLine fades the Tigers a bit relative to last week. They ended the week by dropping two of three in Houston, and that takes a bite out of their already modest playoff percentage. Jordan Zimmermann has yet to allow a run.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
20 | 47.0% | 76.1 | 69.3 | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.2 |
Trevor Story has cooled off a bit, but around that same time the Rox took two of three from the Giants and Cubs. As you can see, they still project as a 69-win team, but Powerx162 is a bit more bullish.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
21 | 46.6% | 75.5 | 75.5 | 6.4% | -5.4% | -1.9 |
Mike Trout isn't putting up his customary numbers just yet, and the Angels have gotten basement level production from first base, second base, and left field. Getting swept by the Twins? Perish the thought. They lose more than 5.0 percent on the playoff front, but they stay at No. 21.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
22 | 45.5% | 73.8 | 74.0 | 1.0% | -0.1% | 0.4 |
SportsLine didn't buy the Diamondbacks as contenders coming into the season, and they still don't. Arizona won its first series of the year (against the Padres), but they'll play their next 10 games against the Giants, Pirates, and Cardinals.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
23 | 45.3% | 73.4 | 72.7 | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.6 |
Texas enjoyed a 4-2 week, which helped them climb two spots and add a full point to their playoff percentage. More good news: Yu Darvish (Tommy John surgery) begins a minor-league rehab assignment next week.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
24 | 44.1% | 71.5 | 74.3 | 3.6% | -2.5% | -1.1 |
They followed up that 0-9 start with a sweep of the Angels, but they still lost a spot in the ratings. In 10 of their 12 games over the span in question, they scored three runs or fewer.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
25 | 43.8% | 70.9 | 68.4 | 0.1% | -0.3% | -1.8 |
The Reds still have almost a full rotation on the disabled list, which in part explains how they have a 5.99 FIP as a team. They're outplaying their run differential with a .500 record, but SportsLine sees through that and still tabs them as a 90-loss team or thereabouts.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
26 | 43.6% | 70.6 | 72.5 | 0.7% | -0.4% | -0.4 |
Through Sunday, Giancarlo Stanton was running an OPS of .678 and Jose Fernandez had pitched to an ERA of 5.06 after two starts. If the Fish are going to matter in 2016, then they'll need much better outputs from their two young stars.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
27 | 41.5% | 67.2 | 68.8 | 0.1% | -0.3% | -2.1 |
When not playing in Coors Field this season, the Padres' offense has averaged 1.5 runs per game. That's ... not optimal. They're down to a playoff percentage of 0.1.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
28 | 41.1% | 66.5 | 68.6 | 0.1% | -0.3% | -2.5 |
Through two weeks of play, the Brewers were running the worst run differential in baseball. They'll score some runs this season, but the rotation figures to be MLB's worst in 2016.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
29 | 39.5% | 64.0 | 67.4 | 0.1% | -0.2% | -2.7 |
Better than expected? The Philly rotation to date. They were non-terrible out of the gates, but they still profile as one of the worst teams in baseball in 2017.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
30 | 37.4% | 60.6 | 62.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2 |
A 3-3 week for the Braves! Of course, when you precede that with 0-9 start and project as a truly awful team, it's not going to do much for your indicators.
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