Are the Indians the best bet in the American League?
Rank: Numerical rank based on Power. Power: Each team's neutral win% determined when each team plays every other team on a neutral field. Each team is actually made up of 5 versions based on their #1 to #5 starters. Every match-up involves the same numerical starter (ie. Team's No. 1 starter faces every other Team's No. 1 starter). Power x 162: The PWR% multiplied by 162 games. This makes it easier to determine how good a team is for baseball purposes. Win Projection: This is the team's current forecast for season win totals, which includes actual wins plus projected wins. Playoff%: The team's chances of making the playoffs. |
We're coming up on the halfway point of the 2016 regular season, so let's take an updated look at how the SportsLine Projection Model sees things when it comes to the best and worst teams in baseball.
These rankings are based on results to date and underlying indicators, of course, and the remaining games on the schedule have been simulated thousands of times to give us a dose of future outlook.
You can probably guess the team at the top of the heap, but said top team isn't quite lapping the field to the extent they once were, thanks in large part to recent struggles.
Elsewhere, a certain AL East contender took big step forward, while the reigning champs are trending in the wrong direction.
Here is a team-by-team look at this week's Power Ratings from SportsLine.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
1 | 65.2% | 105.6 | 104.0 | 100% | 0.0% | -7.4 |
Yep, they're still the best team in baseball, but entering the week they've dropped six of seven. Still, the Cubs are the only team we give a 100 percent chance of making the postseason. That said, they've lost 7.4 wins off their projected total in a week according to SportsLine.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
2 | 61.3% | 99.3 | 97.9 | 98.5% | +0.0% | +0.1 |
The Giants have more wins than the Cubs entering the week. They of course can't compare when it comes to run differential, but that's still something considering the clip the Cubs maintained for quite a while. Speaking of wins, SportsLine now pegs the Giants for 98 of them.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
3 | 59.6% | 96.5 | 97.4 | 98.1% | +10.5% | +4.4 |
The best rotation in baseball? That might indeed be from Cleveland. The Indians are 14 games above .500 and have a playoff percentage of 98.1, and they've gotten exactly 43 plate appearances from Michael Brantley this year.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
4 | 59.5% | 96.3 | 97.8 | 98.8% | +4.0% | +2.8 |
The Rangers are just .004 points behind the Cubs in winning percentage. That excellent mark isn't quite backed up by run differential and batted-ball outcomes, but it's still notable. Speaking of the Cubs, they're the only team that tops Texas’ current playoff percentage of 98.8.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
5 | 56.9% | 92.1 | 94.5 | 92.9% | -5.7% | -3.6 |
Stephen Strasburg is out, and Lucas Giolito is in. Sunday's win snapped an eight-game losing streak. That's why they've lost 3.6 wins off their projected total and dropped two spots in the eyes of SportsLine.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
6 | 56.8% | 91.9 | 92.1 | 82.0% | +18.1% | +2.4 |
The O's are among our big movers this week. They've won five straight, including a four-game sweep of the Rays, and their current 4.0-game lead in the AL East is their largest of the season. In related matters, they tacked on 18.1 points to their playoff percentage this past week.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
7 | 56.3% | 91.2 | 89.1 | 64.3% | -18.8% | -2.3 |
The Dodgers seemed to be gradually rising to meet expectations before they dropped three of four to the Pirates. Good news ahead, though, as they'll play 13 of their next 16 against losing teams and 10 of those next 16 at home.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
8 | 54.5% | 88.3 | 89.3 | 63.1% | -10.4% | -1.5 |
SportsLine remains bullish on Toronto, as it tabs them for 89 wins and a playoff percentage of 63.1. The Jays rank third in the AL in ERA despite getting 5.00-plus marks from Marcus Stroman and key bullpen acquisition Drew Storen.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
9 | 54.4% | 88.1 | 91.6 | 81.0% | +13.1% | +2.3 |
The Cardinals continue to tread water thanks to their powerful lineup, and SportsLine continues to like them. The Cubs are the only NL team projected to have a higher winning percentage over the remainder of the season.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
10 | 53.5% | 86.7 | 84.7 | 24.8% | -5.8% | -0.8 |
A .500 team in the top 10? Well, Seattle has under-played its run differential by four full games. Over the rest of the season, SportsLine expects the M's to be eight games over .500.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
11 | 53.1% | 85.9 | 87.7 | 48.5% | -17.7% | -2.3 |
The Red Sox have a powerhouse offense and to date have played the toughest schedule in baseball. The pitching staff outside of Steven Wright has been roundly unimpressive. With a playoff percentage of 48.5, the Sox are the team closest to "coin-flip" territory when it comes to making the postseason.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
12 | 52.8% | 85.6 | 87.2 | 42.1% | +8.3% | +1.4 |
The Mets reportedly have bone spurs aplenty in the rotation, and Matt Harvey has on balance underperformed expectations. They've also played the weakest schedule in baseball to date. Right now, SportsLine gives them a 42.1 percent chance of returning to the playoffs.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
13 | 52.6% | 85.2 | 84.2 | 21.1% | +16.9% | +4.4 |
Over the remainder of the season, SportsLine expects the White Sox to post a winning percentage of .535, which is second to the Indians' projected mark in the AL Central. Serious contention may require a bit more than that, though.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
14 | 51.9% | 84.1 | 84.7 | 25.5% | -27.3% | -3.5 |
They're getting outscored by the opposition, but the Royals are accustomed to outplaying such indicators. They're also accustomed to winning in spite of a bad rotation, and that's once again going on. Back to the postseason? SportsLine gives them roughly a one-in-four chance.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
15 | 51.9% | 84.0 | 85.5 | 29.4% | +11.6% | +1.8 |
Here come the Astros. They've followed up that disastrous 7-17 April with a 17-12 mark in May and a 15-8 record in June. Since last week, they've improved their playoff percentage by 11.6 points.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
16 | 50.9% | 82.5 | 83.3 | 16.2% | +4.4% | +1.5 |
The Marlins are contending despite getting sub-standard production from Giancarlo Stanton. They ended the week by taking three of four against the No. 1 Cubs. SportsLine, though, still sees this as an 83-win team.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
17 | 49.5% | 80.2 | 78.0 | 1.6% | -0.6% | +0.1 |
The Diamondbacks have a winning mark for the month of June, but they still entered the week a hefty 13.5 games back of the Giants in the NL West. SportsLine doesn't think much of their wild card chances either, as Arizona's current playoff percentage checks in at just 1.6.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
18 | 49.0% | 79.4 | 78.8 | 3.1% | -0.8% | -0.4 |
SportsLine projects the Yanks to win 79 games this year, which would make for their first losing season since 1992. The also have next to no chance of making the postseason, despite them proclaiming themselves as buyers approaching the deadline.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
19 | 48.4% | 78.4 | 80.2 | 5.5% | +1.2% | +0.6 |
The Tigers are getting a number of impressive individual performances, but the collective hasn't lived up those individual performances. They ended last with a damaging home sweep at the hands of first-place Cleveland.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
20 | 48.4% | 78.4 | 77.3 | 1.5% | -1.5% | -1.0 |
The Rockies continue to carry with them the vague odor of respectability. Said odor could dissipate soon, though, as on Monday they began a nine-game stretch against the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Giants.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
21 | 46.9% | 76.0 | 78.2 | 1.9% | +0.7% | +1.7 |
The baseball renaissance in Pittsburgh has of course yielded three straight playoff appearances. Entering this week, however, SportsLine gives the Pirates just a 1.9 percent chance of keeping that postseason streak going.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
22 | 45.1% | 73.0 | 67.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +2.6 |
At present, SportsLine gives nine teams a 0.0 percent chance of making the playoffs, and the A’s are the highest-ranked of those nine teams. So that's ... something?
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
23 | 43.8% | 71.0 | 69.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +1.1 |
The Padres have played .429 ball thus far, but SportsLine expects them to win at a .434 clip moving forward. And with that we have said something positive about the 2016 Padres.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
24 | 43.1% | 69.8 | 71.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +2.4 |
The Brewers were three games under .500 as recently as June 12, but then they lost eight of their next 12. Credit for hanging around a bit longer than expected, but SportsLine gives them zero shot at a playoff run.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
25 | 42.2% | 68.3 | 67.9 | 0.0% | -0.1% | -4.7 |
The Angels spent their week getting swept by the Astros and then dropping three of four to the A's. SportsLine pegs them for 68 wins, which is a feat of sorts considering they still have one of the best players in the world still on the roster.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
26 | 41.3% | 66.8 | 66.4 | 0.0% | -0.1% | -5.6 |
The Rays entered the week having lost 11 in a row and at a season-worst 12 games under .500. As such, they drop four spots in the eyes of SportsLine. Down at this end of things, that's hard to do.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
27 | 39.5% | 64.0 | 64.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.4 |
Only the Braves have scored fewer runs this season, and only the Braves have a worse team OPS. If the SportsLine projections hold, then Philly will wind up with the fourth overall draft pick next year.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
28 | 38.0% | 61.5 | 62.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +3.2 |
One team has a worse record than the Braves! Two teams have a worse run differential! This qualifies as progress of sorts! Believe it or not, the Braves have notched eight wins in their last 11 games. As such, SportsLine now seems them with a real shot at dodging 100 losses.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
29 | 37.7% | 61.1 | 59.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +1.7 |
Your periodic Reds team ERA update: It's presently 5.35. They've allowed 439 runs through 76 games, which is 25 more than the next team in line. When a team that's not in the AL and doesn't play home games at Coors Field "leads" in this category, it's really something.
Rank | Power | Power x 162 | Win Projection | Playoff% | Playoff% +/- | Win Proj. +/- |
30 | 36.2% | 58.6 | 57.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +1.0 |
For a second week in a row, the Twins occupy the bottom spot. The Twins are presently on pace to win 51 games, but SportsLine tabs them for 57.3 victories on the year. So that's something.
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