Alvin Kamara Fantasy football ranking: 2020 outlook, projections, ADP, value, predictions, stats

Alvin Kamara finished as a top-five Fantasy back in both 2017 and 18 while sharing the backfield with Mark Ingram, so when Ingram left New Orleans for Baltimore, expectations were sky-high for Kamara's 2019 Fantasy season. And while his finish as the eighth-highest per-game scorer was solid, Kamara's 2019 was riddled with injuries and inconsistency. Where should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings, and what Alvin Kamara Fantasy football outlook can you expect?

New Orleans has improved on their already strong offensive line heading into 2020, which should work in Kamara's favor in his bounce-back campaign. They shelled out $57.5 million to retain starting guard Andrus Peat and invested their first-round pick in center Cesar Ruiz out of Michigan. The Saints added wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, but otherwise didn't make any changes to their skill position groups.

The 2020 Alvin Kamara Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 80-catch campaign. He's undoubtedly a first-round candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:

So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

Alvin Kamara Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)

No. 5.8 ADP
No. 6 RB (non-PPR)
No. 5 RB (PPR)

Alvin Kamara Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model) 

185 carries, 875 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs; 
97.3 targets, 79.5 receptions, 576 receiving yards, 1.99 receiving TDS
201.5 Fantasy points (non-PPR); 281 (PPR)

Alvin Kamara 2020 Fantasy outlook 

After finishing as a top-five Fantasy RB in each of his first two pro seasons, Alvin Kamara's 2019 Fantasy performance was a let-down. He finished as the RB11 and was eighth at the position in Fantasy points per game, so Kamara wasn't a complete bust. But the gaudy numbers he posted in his first two years in the NFL were not there. Will they be in 2020?

Comparing Kamara's 2019 to the two years prior makes it clear what caused the drop-off in Fantasy production. After scoring 13 touchdowns as a rookie and then 18 in his second season, Kamara found the end zone just six times in 2019. Everything else from his Fantasy profile was the same. For the third-straight year, Kamara caught exactly 81 passes. He averaged 18 touches per game, down just slightly from 2018's 18.3 mark. Kamara also was targeted at the highest rate of his career last season.

So, was the massive dip in touchdowns a fluke? A look at his red zone usage offers some interesting insight. Below is Kamara's red zone usage for each of his three seasons as a pro:

2019 -- 27 red zone carries (52.9 percent of the team's carries), 8 carries from within the five-yard line (75 percent), and 11 red zone targets (10 percent)
2018 -- 51 red zone carries (65.4 percent), 16 carries from within the five (53.3 percent), and 25 of 139 red zone targets (18 percent)
2017 -- 25 red zone carries (41 percent), 5 carries from within five (23.8 percent), 14 red zone targets (13.3 percent)

Kamara's split of the team's red zone carries in 2019 was nearly identical to his 54.7 percent mark through the first two years of his career. His percentage of the carries from within the five-yard line was actually the highest mark of his career, but his percentage of the red zone targets was down slightly. Overall, the percentage of scoring opportunities was right in line with what we've seen in years past. The only difference was that New Orleans' offense saw far fewer red zone scoring opportunities with Drew Brees missing five games.

Only Todd Gurley saw more red zone carries than Kamara in 2018. Kamara's 71 red zone touches that year was the third-most we've seen from a running back over the past five years. It beat out historic Fantasy outputs from Christian McCaffrey (68 red zone touches) in 2019 and David Johnson (67) in 2016. If New Orleans' offense returns to the dominant unit we saw in 2018, Kamara's 2019 red zone usage rates would suggest that he'll again be among the league leaders in red zone touches. That type of touchdown potential gives Kamara the highest Fantasy ceiling of any player outside of the top-five in average draft position.