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Advanced model updates title chances for Oklahoma City Thunder

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the remainder of the NBA season 10,000 times and predicted the Thunder's title chances.

ByUpdated: Jun 12, 2020 2:30PM UTC . 3 min read

Over the course of the last decade and change, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been blessed to have starpower like Kevin Durant, James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Paul George on their roster. Unfortunately, the franchise only managed one NBA finals appearance during that span and they entered the 2019-20 season with all four superstars having moved on.

Yet, as the team went into the coronavirus stoppage with 35-year-old Chris Paul now leading a group with just one other player (Danilo Gallinari) in their 30s and are still in prime position to make the playoffs as the NBA looks to resume with 22 teams sometime next month. The Thunder are currently 40-24 and own the No. 5 seed in the loaded Western Conference.

Paul is averaging 17.7 points, 6.8 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game so far this season, and while that's not productivity that matches what we saw during the height of his career in New Orleans and Los Angeles, it is an impressive stat line that earned him his first all-star appearance (10th overall) in four seasons. And Paul has helped lift up teammates like Gallinari (19.2 ppg) and 21-year-old Shai Gilgeous-Alexader (19.3 ppg).

The former Kentucky star was a centerpiece of the Paul George trade with the Clippers and the major step forward in his game is a genuine testament to the Oklahoma City front office's eye for talent. And with eight of the players in their main rotation currently 26 or younger (including five who are 21 or younger), it will be interesting to see how this roster continues to develop.

But the major question is if the Thunder will continue to be regular season overachievers and if Paul is still capable of lifting teammates who aren't ball dominant like Gallinari, Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel to the tune of stealing a playoff series or two. The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the remainder of the NBA season 10,000 times and released its conference title and NBA championship odds for all 22 returning teams.

The Celtics are currently have the seventh best odds to win the Western Conference at +4000 according to William Hill. However, the model predicts that they win the East in 0.56 percent of simulations. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is tied for 14th-best NBA title odds at +8000 and are winning the championship in 0.10 percent of the model's sims.

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Ryan Wooden

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