Advanced model updates title chances for Los Angeles Lakers
After missing the postseason in LeBron James' first season with the franchise, the Lakers enacted phase two of their plan by trading for Anthony Davis and opened their title window with two of the biggest stars in the game. And before the coronavirus shutdown, the Lakers sat atop of the Western Conference by 5.5 games over the Clippers.
The Lakers are 49-14 on the season and rank in the top seven in the NBA in points (114.3), points allowed (106.9), offensive rating (113.0) and defensive rating (100.9). James and Davis have had their workloads managed throughout the season and should be particularly well rested after more than three months off.
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Continued contributions from veterans like Rajon Rondo, JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard and Danny Green will be key to helping the Lakers coast to the coveted No. 1 seed and go into the postseason with James and Davis prepped for 40 minutes a night. Meanwhile, the more youthful part of their rotation (Alex Caruso, Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) will be tasked with supplying needed energy on a nightly basis.
With a 5.5-game lead, that should pave a relatively easy postseason path towards the Clippers or Rockets coming out of the other side of the Western Conference playoff bracket. And with those other two star-laden teams likely to play each other, if the Lakers can stay healthy they're likely to be the more energetic group in the conference finals and heading towards whatever awaits them in the East.
But can the Lakers get enough out of their bench to ensure that James and Davis are peaking at the right time and will they be able to take down their 17th championship? The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the remainder of the NBA season 10,000 times and released its conference title and NBA championship odds for all 22 returning teams.
The Lakers currently have the best odds to win the Western Conference at +140 according to William Hill. However, the model predicts that they win the West in 42.56 percent of simulations. Meanwhile, Los Angeles also has the best NBA title odds at +240 and are winning the championship in 24.99 percent of the model's sims.
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