Advanced model updates Texans' projected win total

The Houston Texans have won the AFC South in four of the last five seasons, and despite the fact that Houston hasn't experienced much playoff success, those results have been enough for ownership to make head coach Bill O'Brien the general manager, ceding complete control of football operations. However, after what has been a curious first offseason in charge, many will be interested to see if the Texans can hold off the oncoming Titans and Colts within the division.

This offseason, the Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick to the Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson, a second-round pick and a future fourth-rounder. That left Deshaun Watson noticeably upset (as Houston enters long-term contract discussions) and left the Houston offense without its biggest weapon. And while the Texans made some solid additions in NFL free agency (Randall Cobb, Eric Murray and Timmy Jernigan, to name a few), they also lost 26-year-old plug D.J. Reader to the Bengals.

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So as Houston entered the 2020 NFL Draft, squeezing value out of its five picks was an absolute must. So the Texans drafted TCU defensive lineman Ross Blacklock to help ease the loss of Reader and then added Florida edge rusher Jonathan Greenard to help with a pass rush that struggled at times with J.J. Watt injured. They also traded their other second-round pick to the Rams in exchange for Brandin Cooks and a fourth-round pick in 2022.

On Day Three, the Texans drafted North Carolina offensive tackle Charlie Heck with hopes of developing him long-term and also landed Penn State cornerback John Reid, who could factor into the defensive rotation and make an impact on special teams. He also took Rhode Island wide receiver Isaiah Coulter to add depth there.

Ultimately, the Texans are still left without a clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver for Watson, though the overall quality and depth of Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Cobb and Cooks might help ease the pain of Hopkins' loss. But when you consider what was paid for Cooks and what the Texans got in return for arguably the best receiver in the league, people are wondering if having O'Brien at the helm of it all might be the beginning of the end for the AFC South standard-bearers.

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Texans win an average of 7.3 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 7.7 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Houston wins the division 17.9 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 31.3 percent of the time. The Texans are also currently 60-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for eighth-worst odds in the NFL.