Advanced model updates Falcons' projected win total

It's only been a little over three years since the Atlanta Falcons held a 28-3 lead late in the third quarter of Super Bowl 51. In the seasons since, the Falcons made another postseason appearance and have put up a .500 record, but the erosion of talent has been pretty clear and now the franchise is struggling to tread water in the loaded NFC.

This offseason, the Falcons lost several big names during NFL free agency as Desmond Trufant, Austin Hooper, Wes Schweitzer and Vic Beasley all signed elsewhere. But they were able to make a couple of splash signings of their own, signing Dante Fowler Jr. to a three-year, $45 million contract and bringing former Georgia star Todd Gurley back home on a one-year, $5 million deal. Still, many assumed that the needle was pointing down as Atlanta entered the 2020 NFL Draft.

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The Falcons looked to move up from No. 16 but ultimately wound up staying put to take Clemson cornerback A.J. Terrell, who may have been a reach but certainly fills a need at his position and has the length and ability to potentially make an impact. The Falcons made another solid defensive addition in the second round, selecting Auburn defensive lineman Marlon Davidson with the No. 47 overall pick.

Those two defensive additions should be able to make immediate contributions and Cal safety Jaylinn Hawkins has some serious upside after Atlanta trade back into the fourth round to take him with pick No. 134. However, critics are understandbly concerned that may not be enough to bring the defense up to par with an offense that can still be dangerous.

Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley still give the Falcons one of the most dynamic passing attacks in the NFL and if Gurley shows up motivated to earn another big contract and prove he's healthy, the Falcons should be able to put points up. But will they be able to stop anyone after ranking 20th or worse in scoring defense and total defense in three of the last four seasons? Especially considering all their losses on the defensive side of the ball?

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Falcons win an average of 6.8 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 7.0 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Atlanta wins the division 3.7 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 17.3 percent of the time. The Falcons are currently 60-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for eighth-worst odds in the NFL.