Advanced model updates Broncos' projected win total

In the four seasons since winning Super Bowl 50, the Denver Broncos have only managed one winning season and the franchise has rotated through three different head coaches and seven different starting quarterbacks during that span. However, the Broncos found a spark late in 2019, winning four of their last five games with Vic Fangio at the helm and Drew Lock installed as the starting quarterback.

Now Denver enters the 2020 NFL season with a sense of general optimism and threw around a little bit of money in free agency to continue rebuilding the roster. The Broncos gave Graham Glasgow a four-year, $44 million contract to improve the interior offensive line and then added to an already solid backfield by signing Melvin Gordon to a two-year, $17 million deal. Denver also traded for A.J. Bouye to help ease the loss of Chris Harris in free agency.

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As they entered the 2020 NFL Draft, surrounding Lock with playmaking ability became the clear priority as the Broncos spent their first two picks on wide receiver. Denver landed Alabama's Jerry Jeudy with the No. 15 pick and then took Penn State's K.J. Hamler with the No. 46 pick, giving the franchise a potentially elite trio of wideouts with Courtland Sutton coming off a 1,000-yard season. The Broncos also added tight end Albert Okwuegbunam in the fourth round and wide receiver Tyrie Cleveland in the seventh round to further improve their offensive skill position depth.

Denver also added a couple of interior offensive linemen at the draft and drafted four defenders who all have impressive upside. None more so than Iowa cornerback Michael Ojemudia, whose length makes him an ideal fit in Fangio's aggressive 3-4 scheme. 

After jumping from 22nd in total defense to 12th in Fangio's first season calling the shots, the Broncos have to feel like they're heading in the right direction on that side of the ball. And there's no question that Jeudy, Hamler, Sutton, Gordon, Philip Lindsay and Noah Fant give Lock a group of playmakers he can be confident in. But will that be enough to make them competitive in an AFC West that the Chiefs won by five games last season?

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Broncos win an average of 7.9 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 7.8 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Denver wins the division 6.0 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 39.1 percent of the time. The Broncos are also currently 50-1 to win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for 12th-worst odds in the NFL.