A list of favorites that no MLB manager wants to be on

BookMaker.eu has opened odds on which major league manager will be fired first during the 2016 regular season.

Let's take a look at those numbers ...

I disagree that Atlanta's Fredi Gonzalez is the most likely to be fired first. The Braves, who are in the midst of a deep rebuild, have utterly no expectations for 2016. Also, Gonzalez, unlike, say, Bryan Price, has a past record of success with Atlanta (a division title and two playoff appearances on his watch).

Given how much talent the Braves have parted with in recent months, bottom-feeding is to be expected in 2016 -- desired, even, in the service of nabbing another high draft pick and large bonus pool.

Certainly, it's perfectly plausible to say Gonzalez will be fired before they open the new suburban ballpark in 2017, but it's hard to imagine that things will reach such a state that Gonzalez is the first to be fired this season. Don't take him at those odds. 

Price, meantime, seems like a better bet. He inherited a winner from Dusty Baker and promptly led the Reds to 76-86 and 64-98 records in two seasons on the job.

This year's model will of course lack the contributions of Todd Frazier, Aroldis Chapman, and Mike Leake, among others.

Unlike Gonzalez, Price doesn't have any capital built up in terms of past success, and Price is also in the final year of his contract. The Reds are going to be bad in 2016, and Price seems like a much better bet than Gonzalez to be the first manager to go.

If you're looking for a bolder play, consider John Farrell. The GM who hired him, Ben Cherington, is long gone, and expectations for a strong bounce-back season will be high in Boston after the club sprung for, at great cost, David Price in free agency and Craig Kimbrel in trade.

Yes, Farrell won a World Series in 2013, but those successes didn't keep Cherington from being nudged out. With a high payroll, a new boss in Dave Dombrowski, and some ugly results on his watch in 2014 and for most of 2015, Farrell could be on notice early in 2016.

Elsewhere, don't even think about touching Clint Hurdle (+2000). In 2013, he led the Pirates to their first winning season in more than two decades, and he's also reeled off three straight postseason appearances, including a 98-win campaign last year.

In matters related, Hurdle has proved to be remarkably adaptive in working with the analytics-driven front office. That's a rare quality in a manager who also boasts old-school bona fides.

It's an exaggeration to say Hurdle will be Pittsburgh's manager for as long as he chooses to be, but it's not much of one. 

Darkhorse for this dubious distinction?

It's Chip Hale at +2300.

Certainly, the odds are against his being fired so soon after leading the team to a 15-game improvement in 2015. However, the Diamondbacks have spent money this offseason and heavily leveraged the future for contention right now, while linchpin Paul Goldschmidt is still in his prime.

On another level, there's a substantial gap between how the 2016 Diamondbacks project and the general expectations surrounding them. Thanks to a thin roster, this profiles as a .500-ish team, and an early-season collapse is very much within the range of possibilities.

Again, Hale isn't likely to lose his job in 2016, but in Arizona the expectations outstrip the realities by quite a bit. Throw in the contentious uncertainties surrounding their ballpark, and this seems like a front office ripe for overreaction to a bad couple of months.