5 Most Fantasy-Relevant NFL Coaching Changes

Many factors go into projecting a player's Fantasy outlook, and one that often goes overlooked is the coaching scheme.

In 2019, many Fantasy drafters expected Le'Veon Bell to replicate the numbers they grew accustomed to seeing while he was in Pittsburgh. What Fantasy players selecting Bell in the first or second round did not account for was how drastically the change from Mike Tomlin's offense to Adam Gase's offense would impact his Fantasy value.

Jacob Gibbs highlighted the Jets' hiring of Gase as a bright red flag for Bell in his 2019 Coaching Changes Fantasy Bible piece. Anyone who followed his advice avoided a major bust. Gibbs was the seventh most accurate Fantasy Football player ranker in the industry in 2019, according to FantasyPros. 

This year, Gibbs has some concern about Christian McCaffrey's usage while playing for a new head coach and offensive coordinator. "Matt Rhule comes from Baylor, where he never had a running back rush for 700-plus yards or handle over 60 percent of the running back carries in any of his three years as head coach," Gibbs said. "Before that, he spent four years at Temple. Only during one of those seasons did Rhule have a clear-cut RB1 -- every other season Rhule employed a RB-by-committee approach.

"I'm sure that McCaffrey will continue to be the centerpiece of Carolina's offense. But, it would be naive to not expect any sort of decrease in usage from McCaffrey's historic 2019 season when no longer playing in Norv Turner's one-back system."

Not every coaching change is a negative though. Gibbs has identified one new head coach who could unlock a breakout season for his starting running back. You NEED to see who it is before you draft.

Which five coaching changes will have the biggest impact on 2020 Fantasy football? And which new head coach could unlock a breakout season for his starting running back? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the five most Fantasy-relevant offseason coaching changes, plus get the entire Fantasy Football Draft Bible for 2020, all from the Fantasy guru who warned against drafting Le'Veon Bell in 2019!

Looking ahead to the 2020 Fantasy season, Gibbs has identified the five coaching changes that will be the most impactful for Fantasy football purposes.

Carolina Panthers
New Head Coach: Matt Rhule
New Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady

The Panthers look to revitalize their sinking franchise with the hiring of two young coaches Matt Rhule and Joe Brady, neither of whom were in the NFL last year. Rhule comes from Baylor, where he never once had a running back rush for 700-plus yards or handle over 60 percent of the running back carries in any of his three years as head coach. Before that, he spent four years at Temple. Only during one of those seasons did Rhule have a clear-cut RB1 -- every other season Rhule employed a RB-by-committee approach.

Does this mean Christian McCaffrey's snap rate is suddenly going to drop from his 93 percent mark 2019 to 60 percent in 2020? No, I'm sure that McCaffrey will continue to be the centerpiece of Carolina's offense. But, it would be naive to not expect any sort of decrease in usage from McCaffrey's historic 2019 season when no longer playing in Norv Turner's one-back system.

I still believe CMC's unique pass-catching ability makes him the 1.01 in season-long leagues. But he's the 1.01 because he projects as the safest option of any of the top picks in Fantasy in 2020, not because you should expect another 471 Fantasy points from him.

Cleveland Browns
New Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski
New Offensive Coordinator: Alex Van Pelt

Both Alex Van Pelt and Kevin Stefanski have backgrounds as QB coaches, and it seems that Cleveland hopes that experience will help elevate Baker Mayfield's play to another level in 2020. It is tough to feel very confident about what type of offense Stefanski will employ, as he was hired after just one year as an offensive coordinator. In that one year, Stefanski's Minnesota Vikings were among the most run-heavy offenses we have seen over the past five seasons. Stefanski's background as a QB coach, tight ends coach, and assistant QB coach before that would suggest that he is more of a passing game enthusiast, so was Minnesota's scheme more of Mike Zimmer's doing?

Even without knowing for sure what Cleveland's offensive scheme will look like, it's hard not to get excited about Nick Chubb in 2020 after what Dalvin Cook was able to achieve as the central part of Stefanski's offense last year.

Dallas Cowboys
New Head Coach: Mike McCarthy

The real notable coaching decision was to retain offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. While McCarthy suddenly believes in analytics and will surely bring some changes, what we saw from in his final few seasons at Green Bay was enough to be leery of him getting in the way of the success of Dak Prescott and his loaded group of pass-catchers. Moore rejuvenated Dallas' offense last year, encouraging Dak Prescott to throw downfield at the highest rate of his career. With Moore still in house, I expect McCarthy's Cowboys to be even more aggressive through the air in 2020, which might signal that Zeke's true workhorse days are behind him.

In Jason Garrett's 10 seasons as a head coach, he ranked inside the top half of the league in rushing attempts six times. Since Zeke arrived in 2016, Garrett's offenses have finished first, fifth, tenth, and eighth in rush attempts per game. McCarthy's offenses ranked 29th, 27th, and 32nd during that time. In his 13 seasons as a head coach, McCarthy ranked inside the top 15 in rushing attempts four times. He never had an offense that ranked inside the top-10 in rush attempts.

The play calling could look different when in the red zone too. Dallas ran at the fourth-highest rate when in the red zone in 2019, but Green Bay's offenses under McCarthy were quite pass-happy when in scoring distance. During the seasons we have the data available, Green Bay had the league's third, 11th, and second-highest pass-to-rush ratios in the red zone.

After being targeted 95 times in 2018, Elliott saw his target total fall to 71 in his first season in Kellen Moore's offense. Moore's priority on downfield passes was evidenced in Dak Prescott's career-high 12.8 percent deep ball rate and fewer dump downs to his running backs in 2019. It's possible that we never see Elliott come close to the 100-target mark while playing in Moore's offense.

None of this takes away from Elliott's bid for a first-round selection in Fantasy drafts, though. He should still be heavily involved in one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL, and he has a proven track record as a Fantasy producer that almost no one can match. It's just important to consider the changes that Dallas' offense has undergone this offseason, because a lot of what Elliott has been able to accomplish in Fantasy has been predicated on a truly unique type of usage that may be diminished while playing for a new regime in 2020.

Miami Dolphins
New Offensive Coordinator: Chan Gailey

The Dolphins were able to coax former employee Chan Gailey out of retirement, and he will reunite with Ryan Fitzpatrick to spearhead what may be a surprisingly exciting offense in 2020. Fitzpatrick and Gailey had Fantasy success together while in Buffalo and New York, and they'll have arguably their best group of pass-catchers of any of their stops -- although most would agree that even the past-their-prime Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker duo still hold that title. Of course, we will have to see if Fitzpatrick can hold down the starting job, but the outlook should be pretty good for him or Tua Tagovailoa in terms of weaponry. 

One player who is inarguably the best weapon Gailey has had at his position is tight end Mike Gesicki. In Gailey's last 10 years as a coordinator or head coach, he only had three starting tight ends see at least 60 targets. He ran a ton of four receiver sets in his most recent stint with the Jets, so there could be some stylistic differences between the offense last year and the one we'll see in 2020.

Prior to Miami's Week 5 Bye, Mike Gesicki saw just a 52.9 percent snap rate. Following the Bye, Gesicki played 68.3 percent of the snaps. He ranked first among tight ends in routes run and deep targets from that point on, but still ranked as just the TE10 in Fantasy during those weeks. If Gesicki's volume falls off at all with Gailey calling the shots, his Fantasy value could evaporate quickly.

The hiring should be good news for Fitzpatrick/Tagovailoa, Devante Parker, and Preston Williams. The upside is still there for a strong third season from Gesicki, but Gailey's history would suggest that there's plenty of risk to go along with that upside.

New York Giants
New Head Coach: Joe Judge
New Offensive Coordinator: Jason Garrett

New Head Coach Joe Judge said New York's offense will schematically resemble "what we've seen from Jason Garrett in Dallas over the past 10 years," which has to have Saquon Barkley owners excited. Ezekiel Elliott and Le'Veon Bell have been the only backs able to rival Christian McCaffrey's 90-plus percent snap rates over the past few years, and it's possible that we see Barkley elevated to that type of usage in 2020.

Elliott has averaged 24.3 touches per game in his four seasons in Dallas. For reference, Barkley averaged 20.7 touches per game last year, and only McCaffrey, Elliott, and Bell have averaged more than 23 touches per game in any of the past three seasons. If Barkley joins that group from a usage perspective, he'll have an excellent chance at finishing as 2020's Fantasy RB1.