The No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs will host the No. 4 seed Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs on Saturday. The Chiefs went 15-2 in the regular season and earned a first-round bye. Meanwhile, Houston dominated the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 in the Wild Card Round. The winner advances to the AFC Championship Game to play the Baltimore Ravens or the Buffalo Bills. 

Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Kansas City is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Texans vs. Chiefs odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 41.5. The Chiefs are -474 money-line favorites (risk $474 to win $100), while the Texans are +362 underdogs (risk $100 to win $362).

Before making any Texans vs. Chiefs picks or NFL predictions of your own, you need to see which side SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein is on. 

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Hartstein's weekly Vegas contest selections form the basis of his NFL best bets column, which is 79-48-2 (62.2%, +25.95 units) since its inception in 2022. He's also an incredible 30-14 (+1302) on his last 44 NFL picks involving the Chiefs! Anyone who has followed him could be way up.

Now, Hartstein has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Texans vs. Chiefs.

We can tell you he's leaning Over the point total, but he also knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back! You absolutely need to see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.

So who wins Texans vs. Chiefs on Saturday, and what x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? ... Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the Texans vs. Chiefs spread hits hard, all from the expert who is an amazing 30-14 on picks involving the Chiefs!