A pair of NFC heavyweights clash when the Washington Commanders battle the Detroit Lions in an NFL Divisional Round matchup on Saturday. Washington is coming off a 23-20 last-second win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round, while Detroit is coming off a bye after dismantling the Minnesota Vikings 31-9 in Week 18. The Commanders (12-5), who earned the sixth seed by placing second in the NFC East, are 6-3 on the road, including the postseason. The Lions (15-2), the top seed in the NFC after winning the North Division, are 7-2 on their home field.

Kickoff from Ford Field in Detroit is set for 8 p.m. ET. Detroit is a 9.5-point favorite in the latest Commanders vs. Lions SportsLine consensus odds, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 55.5. The Lions are -513 money-line favorites (risk $513 to win $100), while the Commanders are +385 underdogs (risk $100 to win $385).

Before making any Commanders vs. Lions picks or NFL predictions of your own, you need to see which side SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein is on. 

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Hartstein's weekly Vegas contest selections form the basis of his NFL best bets column, which is 79-48-2 (62.2%, +25.95 units) since its inception in 2022. He's also an incredible 19-5 (+1312) on his last 24 NFL picks involving the Commanders! Anyone who has followed him could be way up.

Now, Hartstein has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Commanders vs. Lions.

We can tell you he's leaning Over the point total, but he also knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back! You absolutely need to see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.

So who wins Commanders vs. Lions on Saturday, and what X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? ... Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the Commanders vs. Lions spread hits hard, all from the expert who is an amazing 19-5 on picks involving the Commanders!