We're officially down to 14 teams playing for a Super Bowl championship, a group that includes three teams lined at 6.5 wins or fewer in the market before the season, two teams with rookie quarterbacks, two surprise division winners and all but one team (Seahawks) to reach 10 wins during the 2024 NFL regular season. The Lions (+280) are favored to win it all at BetMGM, with the top three AFC contenders up next in the Chiefs (+350), Ravens (+600) and Bills (+600), while the Eagles (+700) are the only other team below +1600 odds. The longest of longshot Cinderellas is the Steelers (+10000), with the Broncos (+8000) and Texans (+8000) the other teams higher than +3500.

My spread power ratings look very similar at the bottom of the playoff table, and I have those three teams graded either as league average or slightly higher despite the fact they've already outlasted more than half the league. Things look much different at the top, where the byes for the Lions and Chiefs don't boost their ratings above teams in each conference I think are better. However, it is a tight group of five at the top, and several other teams rate well enough that I wouldn't be shocked to see one make a deep run in the postseason.

What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success. 

Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see playoff NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!