Last week we talked about how to adjust for the Patrick Mahomes injury with the expectation a high ankle sprain would cost him at least one game, and instead he went out and ran all over the Texans en route to an easy win on Saturday. Clearly he's motivated to do whatever it takes to earn the No. 1 seed, which the Chiefs can lock up on Christmas Day. But the motivation of other teams in the penultimate week of the season becomes a big factor in how to handicap NFL spreads at this time of year.

Teams with everything to play for facing teams eliminated from the playoffs often see a bump in their spreads due to that motivation inequity, and that was certainly in play with the opening Week 17 NFL lines. But we also have to account for which eliminated teams seem to be playing through the final whistle, as the market hopped on one such eliminated underdog quickly this week to drive the spread in that game down.

My NFL spread power ratings stick the 13 eliminated teams at the bottom, even in cases where many might think the talent level of an eliminated team should keep them above a team still technically in the race. But of those teams still fighting for a trip to the playoffs aren't completely hamstrung by injuries to key players, typically at quarterback, I don't know that I can make the argument that a team like the 49ers or Jets will be 100% dialed in to beat a team on the edge of the playoff race.

But there's a clear hierarchy in my ratings that combines those more talented eliminated teams with a few high-effort squads that I expect to try and finish the season on a high note and build off their performances down the stretch. I put that class well above the seven teams I think will pack it in over the final two weeks that I rate low enough that I won't be tempted to try and make a case playing them in the final weeks. Fortunately, four of those teams play each other this week and those games can be completed ignored from a spread perspective.

What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success. 

Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 17 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!