Congratulations if you've made it to the final week of your NFL survivor pools. For the first time in a long time, a consensus pick lost last week with the Colts unable to stop Drew Lock and the Giants, knocking out nearly half of the remaining Circa Survivor entries and reducing the field chasing a share of the $14.266 million prize to 18. We faded the Colts last week expecting they would be a popular play but weren't worth the risk, and we'll talk about whether it makes sense to do the same this week later in this article.

When looking at your options for NFL survivor each week, it's important to project out the rest of the schedule (hence the point of this weekly column), though that does not apply this week. It's also important to know the format of your pool, as Circa Survivor adds two standalone slates for Thanksgiving and Christmas. It probably doesn't need to be said, but I would avoid taking the Colts against the Jaguars.

The Colts defense has been abysmal down the stretch, including giving up a combined 75 points to the Titans and Giants in the last two weeks. While a good portion of that Tennessee production came down big later in the game, Indianapolis has surrendered at least 24 points in seven straight games despite facing just two inarguably good offenses (Buffalo, Detroit) in that stretch. While the Jaguars may be checked out for this game with the coaching staff expected to be let go after it's over, they've lost by more than one score just once since Week 6 despite a stretch of five straight games against playoff teams (Packers, Eagles, Vikings, Lions, Texans). It's possible a solid Jaguars defense keeps them in this game, or an awful Colts defense gives up 30-plus points again, or both, so there's no way the Colts should be under consideration for the final week even though they're moderate favorites.

Why listen to me? I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and did even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the Las Vegas ATS contests. While this doesn't involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I've developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we'll be in the best position to outlast the competition this season.  

Below, you'll find my top options for this week. Let's dig in.

What are the best options to use in survivor pools in Week 18? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL Survivor Pool strategy from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017 to 2023, returning almost 50 units!