We're getting this week's NFL survivor strategy article out early with a standalone Christmas slate that begins Wednesday for some people, and many will not know if they've made it to Week 17 at the time of this writing. That's because the Packers were the overwhelming consensus pick in Week 16, with 42% of the remaining entries heading into the week in Circa Survivor opting to take them on Monday night against the Saints. Ten percent of that field has already been culled in Week 16 by backing the Cardinals and Buccaneers, and we'll see on Monday Night Football whether that grows into a majority of the field eliminated in Week 16.

When looking at your options for Week 17, it's important to project out the rest of the schedule (hence the point of this weekly column). It's also important to know the format of your pool, as Circa Survivor adds two standalone slates for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Even though they're up against potentially the worst team in the league, I would try to avoid taking the Colts against the Giants.

We did this last week and it didn't really matter, as two pick-sixes by the Falcons turned their matchup with the Giants into a laugher. Now the Giants are at home and facing a Colts team off a win in which they opened a 38-7 lead on the Titans before giving up three late touchdowns and needing a few first downs to essentially salt the game away. I don't have much faith the Giants can rattle off touchdowns in quick succession based on their quarterback play, but if they can somehow get the ball in the hands of Malik Nabers, I wouldn't put it past them to put up points. And you never know what you're going to get with Anthony Richardson; he only needed to throw 11 passes in the win over Tennessee, but if you get him in a script where the Colts have to throw more, he could just as easily put up points for the other team. With that much volatility in play week to week, I'm not risking my survivor season on Richardson and the Colts.

Why listen to me? I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and did even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the Las Vegas ATS contests. While this doesn't involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I've developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we'll be in the best position to outlast the competition this season.  

Below, you'll find my top options for both the Christmas standalone state and the main slate this week. Let's dig in.

What are the best options to use in survivor pools in Week 17? And which teams should be saved to use later in the season? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL Survivor Pool strategy from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017 to 2023, returning almost 50 units!