Those eliminated from NFL survivor pools during the chaotic first half of the season have watched things go essentially according to expectations most weeks during the second half, and Week 15 was no exception. The most popular plays all had little trouble securing a win, with the Vikings, Ravens, Cardinals and Bengals all ultimately posting double-digit margins of victory. The Commanders also survived thanks to a failed two-point attempt by the Saints at the end of the fourth quarter, leaving most entries to advance to Week 16.

When looking at your options for Week 16, it's important to project out the rest of the schedule (hence the point of this weekly column). It's also important to know the format of your pool, as Circa Survivor adds two standalone slates for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Even though they're up against potentially the worst team in the league, I would try to avoid taking the Falcons against the Giants.

The Falcons made the move to switch quarterbacks this week with Kirk Cousins' continued struggles, and while it was probably the right one, Michael Penix Jr. is currently a mystery box. He'll probably be better, but there's also a chance he's just as bad as the quarterbacks the Giants have been marching out onto the field each week, and if that's the case the Falcons may be forced to gut out a low-scoring win. It's also possible his first NFL action just overwhelms the rookie QB and he throws a few bad passes that give the Giants defense a chance to put points on the board themselves. We've seen the betting market drop the Falcons as favorites by a few points on the spread after the move, and I believe it's due to that worst-case scenario for Penix.

Also consider where the rest of the field in your survivor pool is expected to turn: for many, it should end up being the Falcons, a team that is still available to 90% of the field in Circa Survivor. The other big favorites this week are only available for anywhere between a third and half of teams in that competition, so a significant chunk of the field should settle on using Atlanta, and I wouldn't want to be a part of that group.

Why listen to me? I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and did even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the Las Vegas ATS contests. While this doesn't involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I've developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we'll be in the best position to outlast the competition this season.  

Below, you'll find my top options for this week as well as a tiered set of options for every week over the rest of the season, including breakouts for the Christmas slate. Let's dig in.

What are the best options to use in survivor pools in Week 16? And which teams should be saved to use later in the season? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL Survivor Pool strategy from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017 to 2023, returning almost 50 units!