Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals will pit the Miami Heat against the Denver Nuggets at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday. The Nuggets lead the series by a 2-1 margin after a road win in Game 3. Denver is favored by 3 points at Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 211.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before making any Nuggets vs. Heat picks, you NEED to check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows the Heat have a lengthy track record of defensive success. Miami was a top-10 defensive team in the league during the regular season, and the Heat are holding opponents to 32.5% 3-point shooting in the playoffs. Opponents are also averaging only 23.1 assists per game against the Heat, with Miami creating 18.7 points per game off turnovers.

The model also knows Denver continues to excel on offense. The Nuggets are scoring more than 1.19 points per possession in the playoffs, including nearly 1.18 points per possession in the series against Miami. Denver is securing 31.7% of available offensive rebounds against the Heat, with 51.3% shooting from the field and a 60.7% true shooting mark. The Nuggets are also putting pressure on the rim, averaging 52.0 points in the paint per game in the 2023 NBA Finals.

Now, it has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Heat. We can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NBA picks.

Who wins Heat vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread you should be all over Friday, all from the model that's red-hot on top-rated NBA picks!