The 2023 NBA Finals begin with Game 1 between the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets at 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. Denver is favored by 9 points at Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 219 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before making any Heat vs. Nuggets picks, you NEED to check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows the Heat excel on defense. Miami held Boston to a season-low 84 points in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and the Heat are giving up fewer than 1.12 points per possession in the playoffs. The Heat lead the postseason with 19.3 points per game off turnovers, and Miami is averaging well over seven steals per game. Opponents are also shooting only 32.5% from 3-point range against Miami in the playoffs, including 30.3% from Boston in the previous round.

The model also knows the Nuggets have extreme comfort playing in Ball Arena. Denver is 8-0 at home in the playoffs, posting a +11.6 net rating in the process. The Nuggets also have the best offensive rating (119.7) in the NBA during the playoffs, including the best 3-point percentage (38.6%) in the league. Denver sits atop the playoffs in points in the paint and turnover rate, with elite metrics in fast break points, assists, and offensive rebound rate. 

Now, it has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets. We can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NBA picks.

Who wins Heat vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread you should be all over Thursday, all from the model on a roll on NBA picks!