Lionel Messi and Argentina will face 2018 runner-up Croatia in the first semifinal at the 2022 FIFA World Cup on Tuesday in Doha, Qatar. Croatia proved their grit again in a victory in a penalty shootout against tournament favorite Brazil on Friday after a 1-1 draw. Argentina also needed a shootout to decide their Friday matchup with the Netherlands after that one ended deadlocked at 2-2 through extra time.  

The match from Lusail Stadium will kick off at 2 p.m. ET. Argentina are the -125 favorites (risk $125 to win $100) in the latest Argentina vs. Croatia odds from Caesars Sportsbook, with Croatia +375 underdogs. A draw is priced at +235 and the over/under for total goals is set at 2.5. (For more soccer coverage, click here.)

Before you lock in your Croatia vs. Argentina picks or World Cup 2022 predictions, you need to see what SportsLine's soccer simulation model has to say.

The SportsLine soccer simulation model evaluates a team's offensive and defensive capabilities based on the game situation. Then, it assigns a grade using an expected payout-to-probability ratio. The model was accurate on 56% of all picks during the Champions League group stage and returned more than $1,000 to $100 bettors on its A+ picks. It also enters the World Cup semifinals on a 33-15-4 run on spread picks, returning more than $1,400 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

The model knows Argentina are on a mission to get Messi the big prize that has eluded him. The seven-time Ballon d'Or winner won 35 trophies in his long career with Barcelona but has won just one major trophy with the national team. He has scored in four of the five World Cup matches, and Julian Alvarez has scored twice for La Albiceleste. Argentina have scored at least twice in nine of their past 10 matches in all competitions.

The model also has considered that Croatia crushed Argentina 3-0 the last time the teams met, in the group stage at the 2018 World Cup. Luka Modric was among the goal-scorers in that one, and the 37-year-old's leadership and creativity in the attack is crucial to the team's success. Knocking off mighty Brazil will give the team tons of confidence, and goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic has come up big whenever he has needed to.

Now, the model has taken an in-depth look at the Argentina vs. Croatia match from every angle. It is leaning over on the total, and it says one side of the money line has all the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any 2022 World Cup picks.

Who wins Argentina vs. Croatia in Tuesday's semifinal? And which side of the money line has all the value? ... Join SportsLine now to see which side of the Croatia vs. Argentina money line to back, all from the model up more than $1,400 on its soccer spread picks!