The Kansas City Chiefs will aim for a repeat performance of their Dec. 26 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers when they meet in an AFC Wild Card matchup on Sunday. The Chiefs (12-5) defeated the Steelers (9-7-1), 36-10, that night. Pittsburgh is making its 33rd appearance all-time in the postseason, while Kansas City is making its seventh. 

Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Kansas City is favored by 12.5 points in the latest Steelers vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is 46.5.

Before you make any Steelers vs. Chiefs picks and predictions, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,400 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters the 2021 NFL playoffs on an incredible 136-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP!

The model knows that Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes finished the regular season on a roll, completing 27 of 44 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns in last Saturday's win over the Denver Broncos. Mahomes threw for more than 250 yards and two scores in 12 games, including the last five. Against the Steelers in Week 16, Mahomes completed 23 of 30 passes (76.7 percent) for 258 yards and three touchdowns.

The model also knows spearheading the Pittsburgh offense is rookie running back Najee Harris. He was basically the Steelers' rushing attack, carrying 307 times for 1,200 yards (3.9 average) and seven touchdowns. That was 271 more carries and 1,102 more yards than Benny Snell, the team's second-leading rusher. Harris registered six explosive plays of 20 yards or more and converted 62 first downs. In the Jan. 3 win over Cleveland, Harris carried 28 times for 188 yards (6.7 average) and one touchdown.

Now, the model has simulated Steelers vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations! You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.

Who wins Steelers vs. Chiefs during NFL Wild Card Weekend 2022? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model on a 136-97 roll on NFL picks!