2021 Kentucky Derby draw, odds: Betting favorite Essential Quality draws Post Position 14; Highly Motivated lands winless Post 17

After being moved to September last year because of the COVID pandemic, the Kentucky Derby is back in its usual spot on the first Saturday of May this year, and the draw for the 147th Run for the Roses was held Tuesday at Churchill Downs. Betting favorite Essential Quality will start from Post 14, while Highly Motivated drew the unfortunate Post 17.

Essential Quality, a gray colt who is Kentucky-bred, is unbeaten in five career starts – his maiden debut was at Churchill Downs in September 2020. He was the American champion 2-year-old last year after winning the Grade I Breeders' Futurity and Grade I Breeders' Cup Juvenile. This year, he has won the Grade III Southwest Stakes and Grade II Blue Grass Stakes. One possible thing working against Essential Quality is that just two horses in history have accomplished the Breeders' Cup Juvenile-Derby double: Street Sense (2006-07) and Nyquist (2015-16).

The horse is trained by Brad Cox and owned by Godolphin Stables out of the United Arab Emirates, but he has only raced in the USA. Godolphin Stables was formed in 1994 and has had plenty of worldwide success with its horses but has never won a Triple Crown race. In fact, Godolphin Racing has never finished in the top three at the Kentucky Derby in 11 career starts. Horses to start from Post 14 have won the Derby just twice, last Carry Back in 1961.

Cox has never trained a Derby winner and seeks to become the first Louisville-born trainer to win the Derby. Cox has trained seven Breeders' Cup winners, captured the Kentucky Oaks twice and also won the Eclipse Award as the top trainer in the United States in 2020. Cox also will saddle Mandaloun on Saturday.

Essential Quality's jockey is Luis Saez. He has not won the Derby yet – sort of. He was aboard Maximum Security in 2019 when that horse finished first but was then disqualified for interference. Country House was named the winner.

Meanwhile, why is Post 17 so dreaded? It's the only post of 20 yet to house a Kentucky Derby winner. The last time Post 17 produced a horse that even finished in the top five was 2005. Last year's Derby favorite Tiz the Law initially drew Post 17 but was eventually moved to Post 14 when a few other horses were scratched. Authentic, last year's winner, started from Post 15.

Highly Motivated landed Post 17 this time. He is by Into Mischief, who also sired 2020 horse of the year Authentic. Highly Motivated was a close second to Essential Quality at the Blue Grass Stakes early this month.

Bob Baffert was the trainer for Authentic and John Velazquez the jockey. They team up on Medina Spirit this year. Baffert's six wins in the Derby are tied for most by a trainer. Velazquez also won in 2017 on Always Dreaming and 2011 on Animal Kingdom.

Since 2000, 11 of the 21 Kentucky Derby winners have broken from Post 13 or higher. Spots 19 and 20 have just one winner each overall. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from Post 1 since Ferdinand in 1986.

Churchill Downs used a new starting format last year for the Kentucky Derby that has all 20 gates on one starting gate, and that will continue going forward. There used to be a 14-horse main gate and six-horse auxiliary gate. The Derby has used a starting gate overall since 1930 and these position statistics are from that point forward.

Derby Post Position (Trainer/Jockey) Odds

1. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz, Jr.) 6-1

2. Like the King (Wesley Ward/Drayden Van Dyke) 50-1

3. Brooklyn Strong (Danny Velazquez/Umberto Rispoli) 50-1

4. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen) 50-1

5. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) 50-1

6. O Besos (Gregory Foley/Marcelino Pedroza) 20-1

7. Mandaloun (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) 15-1

8. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 15-1

9. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill/Flavien Prat) 8-1

10. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) 20-1

11. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20-1

12. Helium (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 50-1

13. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver/Rafael Bejarano) 50-1

14. Essential Quality (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) 2-1

15. Rock Your World (John Sadler/Joel Rosario) 5-1

16. King Fury (Kenneth McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20-1

17. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) 10-1

18. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana, Jr.) 30-1

19. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) 30-1

20. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) 30-1

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