Texas has a lot to worry about this week with Ohio State coming up because they watched Ohio State on film for the last two games and were impressed and in awe. The blitzkrieg they put on No. 1 Oregon with two 40-plus yard bombs right away by Will Howard was impressive. Oregon couldn’t come back. In normal years, they lose to Michigan, and they're done. But this year their season was elevated to the playoffs and I think they will win it all despite their coach Ryan Day who I lost all respect for in the Michigan aftermath. The No. 1 defense ranking is a real thing. Texas is lucky to get past Arizona State. Ohio State covers.

Penn State scored 21 or under only two times this season, to Ohio State and Illinois. They scored 31 or more points in their three postseason games, including the Big Ten championship. But that's the only way Notre Dame can win if they hold them to 21 or below with the No. 7 ranked defense allowing 295 yards per game. And their season average of points allowed is 13.6 per game which ranks second in the NCAA. Notre Dame has covered 10 games in a row but along the way eight of their last nine games opponents have stayed under 21 points. It's going on at Notre Dame and it begins with defense. Penn State under.

Penn State played two great teams and lost to both of them, Oregon and Ohio State. Wins against SMU and Boise State were good teams from bad conferences. The best team they played and won in the Big Ten is probably Minnesota or Illinois and I see them playing three former PAC-12 teams along with two MAC teams. They’re the Kings of the mediocre. Overrated in most of those games covering six of the 12 regular season games. Notre Dame covered 12 of their 14 games and also covered the last 10 in a row. Their surprising loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2 was a driving force for the year. It kept them motivated from losing again and the plan is working. Notre Dame.

I have to bet this one on principle with Oregon who I can't believe is not favored in this game. They have not lost one game this season and Ohio State, who lost two games one to Oregon and the other to Michigan and I might add they lost to Michigan as 19.5-point favorites. What gives Ohio State the right to be favored against Oregon in this game on a neutral field? Oregon to cover.

I put ASU in the same category as SMU and Clemson but the difference here is that Texas is not at home and that's where my edge might be with Arizona State in this game. It's also nice knowing that they covered almost every game they played. They were 11-2 ATS on the season. And they have the biggest baddest bowling ball of a running back in college football in Cam Skattebo who ran for over 1,500 yards and had 19 touchdowns. Texas is in the first year of SEC play but I'm not impressed with their schedule and they lost to the best team Georgia twice. Arizona State gives them a battle, covers.

Penn State and Boise State are in the college playoff together but they're from two completely different worlds. Penn State had two losses this year and they came against the best, Oregon and Ohio State. The Big Ten is just a better more competitive conference. Boise State's only loss on the year came to Oregon but the rest of their wins are against UNLV twice, Wyoming barely, and Nevada in a struggle. It's the defense that I think is going to be the separator between the two conferences and Penn State has the No. 5 defense in the nation allowing 279 yards and allow only 100 yards per game rushing which is the strength of Boise State and running back Ashton Jeanty. Penn State covers.

South Carolina will be without defensive player of the Year Kyle Kennard but they got freshman quarterback LeNorris Sellers at quarterback and that's my main concern to make me bet South Carolina to win and cover. It's what they've been doing all year they're 9-3 and 9-3 against the spread and they come in hot with the six-game win streak covering six of their last seven games. South Carolina has the nation's No. 15 defense; their only losses the year were to Alabama, Mississippi, and LSU. South Carolina to cover.

Alabama was 2-3 in away games as they meet Michigan with both teams missing players to the transfer portal and NFL draft. Michigan was playing well at the end of the season beating Ohio State and Northwestern and a close one with Indiana that they lost 20-15. They were a different team with a different attitude than earlier in the season. What sticks out to me with Alabama is they lost to Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt, and the Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe threw 4 interceptions in his last two games and had no touchdown passes. Michigan despite the slow start has always been solid with the run ranking this year No. 3 at 92 yards allowed per game and No. 14 overall in defense.

Iowa had a couple of players opt out for the transfer portal and one running back Kaleb Johnson decided to turn pro. They've got their quarterback back in Brendon Sullivan but it's not the quarterback that Iowa started the season with, Cade McNamara. Missouri's got quarterback Brady Cook is healthy after having a high ankle sprain against Alabama. Missouri's top receiver Luther Burden III is preparing for the NFL draft and then they've got a couple more that are out due to injury. Both teams were two and three in away games. But Missouri went 9-3 and 8-4 against the spread and 7-0 at home. I was surprised with Iowa 9-3 to the over. Missouri is the play.

BYU started the season 9-0 but lost two of their last three games to miss the Big 12 championship. They didn't cover their last four games. Colorado covered nine of their last 10 games but lost to Kansas to miss out on the Big 12 championship. Here they are meeting when they didn't even meet in the Big 12 this season. The big news here is that Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter will play even though they will be top three picks in the NFL draft. Colorado's defense got better this year but not as good as BYU's which is 20th in the nation allowing 317 yards per game. The Buffs want to be playing in the Alamo Bowl. Colorado wins this game.

The Hurricanes entered the bowl season with a 10-2 record, the No. 1 in points with 44.2 a game, and total yards with 538 per game. Iowa State comes off a game where they got waxed by Arizona State 45-19. Cam Ward is staying for his team's last game which is a breath of fresh air amid most things going on in the bowls. The problem with the Hurricanes is that they don't cover very often. Just 6-6 ATS. Their defense isn't very good. But the number is short enough to sweat the defensive play in a trade-off for the offense. Miami to cover.

Washington State lost their coach Jake Dickert at the end of the season. He's going to Wake Forest and starting quarterback John Mateer is transferring to Oklahoma. If that's not enough to decide who to take in this game 25 Washington State players have entered the transfer portal. Meanwhile, Syracuse can get to 10 wins on the season and they have most of the players playing including Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord who had a great season passing for 4,300 yards. The question is how much Syracuse will pour it on because they can do so. McCord will have a big game and not care that it's against Washington semi-state. Syracuse to cover.

We've got the No. 8 offensive with Tennessee averaging 463 yards a game against the No. 1 defense of Ohio State that only allows 241 yards per game. For Tennessee to win they're going to have to be extra smart on offense, but also dangerous at the same time doing moves that they wouldn't normally do, but also playing conservatively. You see what I mean. Tennessee started the season out 4-0 straight up and against the spread, before we knew some of those opponents were mediocre. Then they lost to Arkansas the following week. Arkansas? Can they beat Ohio State? I don't think so. Can they stay close in Columbus and lose by only 7 or less? I don't think so. Buckeyes to cover.

The weather is going to play a big factor in Columbus tonight, with temperatures looking to be 25° and winds of 4 miles an hour. Tennessee only allows 13.9 points per game, fourth in the nation. Ohio State allows 10.9 points per game, first in the nation. I favor Ohio State to win the game, but I think it'll stay under the total due to the weather.

The main battle of the playoff game will be Clemson's 12th-ranked offense which gains 454 yards per game against the third-ranked Texas defense allowing only 249 yards per game. Clemson comes in with three losses and they barely beat SMU in the ACC championship game but they got beat by South Carolina, Louisville, and then Georgia in the season opener 34-3. Texas allows only 12.5 points per game, ranked second in the nation. Texas has two losses in the season and both were to Georgia. The schedules are not comparable, Texas at home takes care of business.