FanDuel / DraftKings. Charlie Morton had an underwhelming Orioles debut, only mustering 3.1 innings pitched (7 hits and 4 earned runs) on 80-pitches. Even if he’s pushed to 90-95 pitches today, I don’t see him staying efficient enough against a Red Sox team that, despite not hitting much early, has registered the fourth most pitches per plate appearance thus far this season. With favorable hitting conditions on tap in Baltimore today, I like Morton to stay under this line.

FanDuel. As bad as the Braves bats have been out of the gate, this is a wildly high line for notorious slow starter, Blake Snell. He’s got incredible stuff, but with that comes a diminished pitch efficiency - Snell would have lead MLB starters in pitches per plate appearance last season if he qualified. And the Braves, despite not hitting anything, lead all of baseball in that same metric to start 2025. Snell hasn’t finished six innings in a start before May 1st since 2019 - I don’t see today being the first.

DraftKings. Kyle Filipowski has cleared this points line in 11 of the last 16 games. Without John Collins and Lauri Markkanen, but with Walker Kessler, he’s reached the 13-point mark in six of the last seven games. The tanking Jazz are letting their young guys go to work, and Filipowski’s minutes floor should be solid tonight.

DraftKings. Obi Toppin continues his strong play for the Pacers, clearing this line in seven of his last eleven games. I’m willing to bet this before we get injury clarity on both Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin, as there are still plenty of paths for Toppin to see minutes tonight. The most obvious of which is gamescript, as the Pacers come into this game as 15.5-point favorites against the floundering Hornets.

FanDuel. After a dominant seven strikeout performance on Opening Day, and coming off a spring where he struck out 24 batters in 19 innings, I’m liking Kyle Freeland to punch out at least five Phillies today. Despite being a contact-oriented pitcher for most of his career, Freeland has had early success with a new sweeper he unleashed this spring. Already with solid career numbers against the heart of this Phillies lineup, I like Freeland on this line.

Caesar’s. Cole Ragans had a muted debut on the strikeout front, with only three punchouts against the Guardians. But I’m counting on a bounceback performance against the Brewers, who have struggled so far against power lefty arms.

DraftKings. Rudy Gobert will be needed on the court tonight against the Denver Nuggets, as he’ll be matched with Nikola Jokic. Gobert comes into this game having surpassed this line in four consecutive games, and playing at least 35 minutes in each of the last three. In a game with massive playoff implications (especially for the Timberwolves, who currently are slotted for the seventh seed), I’m counting on Gobert to stay on the floor tonight. Gobert has cleared this line in nine of the last ten games he’s played at least 32 minutes. I’d bet this line up to over 24.5.

DraftKings. Coming off one of his best games as a pro, I’m backing Brandin Podziemski on his points line. The second-year wing has cleared this line in eight of his thirteen games played alongside both Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler. He’s benefited greatly from the Warriors’ stars unselfish brand of basketball, seeing a usage spike of 3% with Butler on the court. This is a prime matchup for Podziemski as well, as the Grizzlies rank 23rd and 25th respectively against spot up and transition points (52% of Podz’ point production).

DraftKings. After missing all of 2024 recovering from elbow surgery, Sandy Alcantara returned on Opening Day to strike out seven Pittsburgh Pirates. Now pitching for the first time on four days rest, Alcantara has a tough matchup against a Mets squad that profiles as a low strikeout team. Alcantara has remained below the one strikeout per inning line each season of his career, and his pitch metrics in his first start did not show a significant difference in his arsenal. So, I’m not buying the high strikeout total from his first game, against a Pirates lineup that looks lost at the plate.

DraftKings. I love Nathan Eovaldi in this spot, coming off a strong nine-strikeout performance on opening day. Already built up to 87-pitches, he should be in line for a full workload today, especially with the Rangers bullpen depleted already. Eovaldi should find himself in plenty of two-strike counts tonight, as the Reds have the second highest called plus swinging strike rate thus far on the young season. Eovaldi is a strike thrower (69% on opening day, and was 10th out of 107 qualifiers last season), which should work to his advantage today.

DraftKings. Betting a line this high in a pitcher’s first start isn’t ideal, but Tyler Glasnow isn’t the average pitcher. One of the elite strikeout artists in the game, and he’s coming off a torrid spring (19 strikeouts in 11 innings, culminating in a 73-pitch outing). He should good for 85-90 pitches tonight, against a Braves lineup that is now without Jurickson Profar (suspended). Glasnow has had plenty of success against the core Braves hitters, and Atlanta’ bats have really struggled out of the gate in general.

DraftKings. Amen Thompson has cleared this line in 11 of his last 16 games, including 3/4 back from his ankle injury. Tonight against the Lakers should be another strong opportunity for him to rack up the counting stats - Los Angeles is allowing thw eighth most points in transition (Thompson’s preferred playtype), and the ninth most assists. After only playing 25 minutes in a massive blowout last night, I like Thompson to see his normal workload in a big matchup.

DraftKings. Playable to over 22.5 points. After missing a game for what reads as more maintenance than anything, Kawhi Leonard returns to the lineup tonight (with no injury designation). He’s cleared this line in eight straight games, averaging 27 points per game over that span. As the Clippers make a run at a playoff berth, his minutes have shot upwards too, even reaching 40 in regulation. While the Magic do bring a slow brand of basketball to the table, I do like Leonard’s individual matchup better than his teammates tonight.

DraftKings. Would bet this up to -150. Kumar Rocker makes his first start of 2025, after debuting for the Rangers late last season. He has electric stuff, having racked up 69 strikeouts in just 48.1 innings between the majors and minors last season. His spring was up and down, but he did register 20 punch outs in just 13 innings. Fully built up, I’ll take a chance on him to get five strike outs against the Reds today.

FanDuel. Amen Thompson has cleared this line in ten of his last fifteen games. Thriving mostly on the fast break, this is a plus spot for his scoring potential as the Suns allow the twelfth most transition points this season. Without Tari Eason tonight, Thompson should be in store for big minutes, as he’s seemingly fully in the clear after dealing with an ankle injury.