Prop's Picks (3 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
FanDuel. Without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, PJ Washington has become a go-to guy for the Mavericks. He’s cleared this line in 4/6 without his superstar teammates this season, including 27+ in each of the last three games. Overall, he’s averaging 27.7 P+R per 36 minutes without Doncic or Irving on the floor. And against the Nuggets (notably without Aaron Gordon), he should continue to thrive. Denver ranks in the bottom 10 teams both vs the spot up and transition playtypes (PJ’s main source of scoring). And PJ should be able to crash the boards as he won’t be directly involved in defending Nikola Jokic. Washington had 35 P+R versus Denver earlier this season with Irving in the lineup.
FanDuel. In his first playoff game, Bo Nix faces a tough task against the Bills defense. The Bills look to keep everything in front of them - they allowed the third lowest aDOT this season (6.8 yards) which combined with their stout run defense, lead to opposing QBs completing the fourth most passes per game (23.3). Per FTN, they also had the third worst DVOA against short passes. This plays into Bo Nix’s hand, as he has embraced the short passing game down the stretch. Since week 14, Nix’s 5.7 aDOT is the lowest amongst qualified QBs. Tack on a gamescript that should lend to Denver having to play catch-up, and I love this over.
B365/ESPN (-125). Would bet this up to over 22.5. Walker Kessler has cleared this line in 14 of his last 19 games. The Jazz will once again be without John Collins today, and Kessler has surpassed this line in 7/9 without his frontcourt counterpart. The Suns have struggled all season against centers, allowing the second most points + rebounds.
draftKings. Another day, another Mikal Bridges over. Bridges has cleared this line in 14/L19 games, including a 24 point performance against the Thunder last week. The Thunder’s defensive strength is against the pick and roll, which makes this a brutal spot for Jalen Brunson.
DraftKings. Without Joel Embiid and Andrew Drummond available, Guerschon Yabusele is once again going to have to play big minutes for the Sixers. In five games without both Embiid and Drummond, Yabusele played at least 31 minutes and cleared this line in each game. And it’s a fantastic matchup against the Pelicans who allow the second most combined points and rebounds to opposing centers. Playable to over 19.5.
FanDuel. In seven games as a starter this season, Amen Thompson is averaging 29.3 points + rebounds, and has cleared this line in five of those contests. In this recent run of starts, with Jabari Smith Jr. down with an injury, Thompson has played 41 minutes in each of the last two games. Without Tari Eason (doubtful) likely out again, the Rockets will roll with a tight rotation once again, against a formidable Grizzlies team that is first in pace.
DraftKings. The upstart Pistons have won eight of their last ten games and sharpshooting Malik Beasley has been a big part of this stretch for Detroit. Beasley has cleared this line in 17 of his last 21 games when playing at least 26 minutes. And with Jaden Ivey (leg) out of the lineup, he’s surpassed this line in 5/7 games. Tonight, with a secure minutes floor, he gets a tasty matchup against the Warriors. Golden State allows the second post points per game to spot up shooters, at the highest frequency for the playtype. Beasley thrives off of Cade Cunningham’s initial action, and should be in position to pour in the points tonight.
DraftKings. It’s been a few games since we bet on Norman Powell’s points - I wanted to see how Kawhi Leonard’s return would affect him. So far, Powell’s usage shot attempts (including free throws) have not suffered. And it’s evident that Kawhi, who is on a strict minutes limit, is not close to his All-Star form. So in a plus matchup against the Nuggets (5th in pace, 20th in team defense), I’m happy to fire on Powell at a one basket discount from his 23.5 points per game average. Would bet to over 22.5.
DraftKings. RJ Barrett makes another return trip to the Garden to take on the Knicks. He’s averaging 23.5 points per game this season, but that’s admittedly with Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley missing extended time. Regardless, all three shared the floor together against the Bucks, and Barrett paced the Raptors with 25 points. He should be in prime position to cross the 20-point plateau tonight, as I’d expect OG Anunoby to matchup with Scottie Barnes.
B365/ESPN. Jalen Smith has had a solid first season in Chicago backing up Nikola Vucevic, averaging 7.9 points per game. He’s cleared this line in 19/31 games played with Vucevic, including 14/17 against teams in the bottom half of defending the restricted area - the Pacers rank 24th. Smith, who spent parts of the last three seasons in Indiana, netted 10 points against his former team earlier this season.
DraftKings. With Myles Turner ruled out, Toppin should be in store for more minutes, as the Pacers likely will unleash some small ball lineups. As is, Toppin has cleared this line in nine of the last 15 games, and the Bulls torrid pace suits his playstyle.
DraftKings. Nikola Jovic has cleared this line in 7/11 games without Jimmy Butler this season. With the Heat coming off a double overtime game last night in which Jovic only played 20 minutes (12 points), it wouldn’t shock me to see Erik Spoelstra loosen the rotation a bit, which could result in extra run for Jovic.