How will Spencer Arrighetti fare in his first road start of the season? …

FanDuel. Gavin Williams is someone I’m really high on coming into this season. Last year he dealt with an elbow injury, and didn’t look super comfortable when he did pitch. This Spring, he looked fantastic (26 strikeouts in 17.1 clean innings). In his first start, he had a tough strikeout matchup (the Royals), but did flash a velocity spike on all of his pitches compared to last season. The Angels profile as a below average lineup, both from a production and strikeout perspective and this is a very achievable total for Williams as is (he finished the season 6 for the last 12 on this line).

Caesar’s. Jalen Green is under this line in eleven of seventeen games against teams that rank within the top 15 against both pick and roll scoring, and above the break three pointers. The Thunder rank seventh and second respectively.

FanDuel. Kyle Filipowski burned me with an awful shooting performance in his last game, but he’s once again in prime position to produce tonight. Flip has cleared this line in seven of his last eight games without Walker Kessler, who is out tonight. It’s a solid paced up spot against the Pacers, and with the Jazz in tank mode, Filipowski’s minutes floor is incredibly safe.

FanDuel (-125). Making his first home start at Citizen’s Bank Park, Jesus Luzardo has the tall task of trying to keep the Dodgers’ bats at bay. It’s early, but the Dodgers are registering a 130 wRC+ and .814 OPS thus far, while remaining patient at the plate (4.10 pitches per plate appearance is the second highest in baseball). As a power pitcher, Luzardo does tend to throw a lot of pitches, which should keep his efficiency down against the patient Dodgers.

FanDuel. It feels like the sports-books are pricing Kevin Gausman’s strikeout props based off his success from a few seasons ago. Gausman is coming off a 2024 where his strikeout rate (21.4%) was his lowest since 2018, and his called plus swinging strike rate (25.8%) was his lowest since 2014. We saw more of the same in his first start against Baltimore (four strikeouts), and he now gets a Mets team that profiles as one of the league’s tougher to strikeout.

FanDuel / DraftKings. Charlie Morton had an underwhelming Orioles debut, only mustering 3.1 innings pitched (7 hits and 4 earned runs) on 80-pitches. Even if he’s pushed to 90-95 pitches today, I don’t see him staying efficient enough against a Red Sox team that, despite not hitting much early, has registered the fourth most pitches per plate appearance thus far this season. With favorable hitting conditions on tap in Baltimore today, I like Morton to stay under this line.

FanDuel. As bad as the Braves bats have been out of the gate, this is a wildly high line for notorious slow starter, Blake Snell. He’s got incredible stuff, but with that comes a diminished pitch efficiency - Snell would have lead MLB starters in pitches per plate appearance last season if he qualified. And the Braves, despite not hitting anything, lead all of baseball in that same metric to start 2025. Snell hasn’t finished six innings in a start before May 1st since 2019 - I don’t see today being the first.

DraftKings. Kyle Filipowski has cleared this points line in 11 of the last 16 games. Without John Collins and Lauri Markkanen, but with Walker Kessler, he’s reached the 13-point mark in six of the last seven games. The tanking Jazz are letting their young guys go to work, and Filipowski’s minutes floor should be solid tonight.

DraftKings. Obi Toppin continues his strong play for the Pacers, clearing this line in seven of his last eleven games. I’m willing to bet this before we get injury clarity on both Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin, as there are still plenty of paths for Toppin to see minutes tonight. The most obvious of which is gamescript, as the Pacers come into this game as 15.5-point favorites against the floundering Hornets.

FanDuel. After a dominant seven strikeout performance on Opening Day, and coming off a spring where he struck out 24 batters in 19 innings, I’m liking Kyle Freeland to punch out at least five Phillies today. Despite being a contact-oriented pitcher for most of his career, Freeland has had early success with a new sweeper he unleashed this spring. Already with solid career numbers against the heart of this Phillies lineup, I like Freeland on this line.

Caesar’s. Cole Ragans had a muted debut on the strikeout front, with only three punchouts against the Guardians. But I’m counting on a bounceback performance against the Brewers, who have struggled so far against power lefty arms.

DraftKings. Rudy Gobert will be needed on the court tonight against the Denver Nuggets, as he’ll be matched with Nikola Jokic. Gobert comes into this game having surpassed this line in four consecutive games, and playing at least 35 minutes in each of the last three. In a game with massive playoff implications (especially for the Timberwolves, who currently are slotted for the seventh seed), I’m counting on Gobert to stay on the floor tonight. Gobert has cleared this line in nine of the last ten games he’s played at least 32 minutes. I’d bet this line up to over 24.5.

DraftKings. Coming off one of his best games as a pro, I’m backing Brandin Podziemski on his points line. The second-year wing has cleared this line in eight of his thirteen games played alongside both Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler. He’s benefited greatly from the Warriors’ stars unselfish brand of basketball, seeing a usage spike of 3% with Butler on the court. This is a prime matchup for Podziemski as well, as the Grizzlies rank 23rd and 25th respectively against spot up and transition points (52% of Podz’ point production).

DraftKings. After missing all of 2024 recovering from elbow surgery, Sandy Alcantara returned on Opening Day to strike out seven Pittsburgh Pirates. Now pitching for the first time on four days rest, Alcantara has a tough matchup against a Mets squad that profiles as a low strikeout team. Alcantara has remained below the one strikeout per inning line each season of his career, and his pitch metrics in his first start did not show a significant difference in his arsenal. So, I’m not buying the high strikeout total from his first game, against a Pirates lineup that looks lost at the plate.