Thomas's Picks (4 Live)
Tennessee has lost by 5+ points just four times this season...
Portal losses give one team an edge in this matchup...
Thomas's Past Picks
The offenses haven't gotten going yet with the Sox and Rangers combining for seven and five runs in the first two games of the series. That could change on Saturday. Walker Buehler goes for Boston and I'm not 100% sold on him after struggling last year before turning it on in the playoffs. Tyler Mahle is on the bump for Texas. Mahle has battled constant injuries and hasn't started more than five games since 2022. I think both teams could be going to the bullpen early and playing for the third straight day, we might run into some tired arms. I'll back the over 9 runs at plus money.
I'm taking the Cubs in the first 5 innings here. I think they are a little ahead of the curve with two games under their belt. Justin Steele has a 1.00 ERA with 25 strikeouts in his last 18 innings vs. Arizona and while the D'Backs have some new faces, they hit just .217 against lefties last season. I like the Cubs to get out to a fast start after dropping both games to the Dodgers in Tokyo.
I'm riding with the Gators here. I make this number -7.5. I like top seeds that get pushed in Round 2 to come back and take care of business in the Sweet 16 when the matchup is right. I thought Florida was a little tight early facing the two-time defending champions. Now that they got past UConn I think they relax and play loose. I like the matchup vs. a Maryland team that also wants to play fast but isn't deep. The Terps are tough to blowout. They have lost just one game by 6+ points all year. However, I think the Gators are on a different level and they pull away to cover. DK has 5.5 but 6.5 is fine too.
I'm higher on the Reds than most to start the season. I bet Cincinnati over 78.5 wins and took the Reds +650 (DK) to win the NL Central. It's early in the year, so anything can happen, although I'm trying to get ahead of the market on Hunter Greene. Opponents hit just .179 vs. Greene last season and I think he is a sleeper Cy Young candidate in the NL. I'm also not high on the Giants, a team I believe is going through a rebuild. I'll lay the short number with Greene in the Reds' home opener.
I'm all over Crochet this year. He has nasty stuff and I like backing pitchers who have a good cutter early in the year while many hitters are still rounding onto form. Crochet's 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched would’ve been the best in baseball last season if he threw enough innings to qualify, but the White Sox load managed him later in the year. He also had 30 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings in spring training. Over 6.5 is a little juicy at -150 but I think that price will go up closer to Thursday.
Luka has been cooking recently, topping 30 points in three straight and eight of 10 overall. He has a good matchup tonight against a Pacers team that plays at the fifth fastest pace in the NBA, which typically leads to more possessions. It was with Dallas but Luka has scored 33, 39 and 34 points in his last three games vs. Indiana. I also expect the Lakers to go all out in this game after dropping three straight. The spot and matchup sets up for Luka to have another big scoring night.
I think St. Mary's is getting too much respect. Here is the thing we need to understand: Gonzaga isn't very good. Beating the Zags twice is overrated. The Gaels' next-best win? Nebraska. St. Mary's looked awful against Vanderbilt, one of my lowest rated teams in the field. I know Bama struggled in Round 1 too but I don't think St. Mary's has enough offense to hurt them. The Gaels have a strong defense but Bama has scored 90+ points 19 times this year. The Gaels also rank 360th in bench minutes and could wear down in the second half if Alabama establishes its pace. I wanted 4.5 but will settle for 5.5.
BYU has been red-hot over the final month, going 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Cougars have scored at least 77 points in nine of their last 10 games. The only time BYU didn’t hit that number was against a Houston defense that ranks second in the country in defensive efficiency. The Cougars' offense should continue to have success on Saturday. BYU attempts the 17th most threes per game and ranks 31st in three-point percentage. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s perimeter defense can be exploited. The Badgers ranked 12th in the Big Ten in three-point percentage defense. I think this will be a really good game but made the Cougars slight favorites. I'll grab the 1.5 and hope the threes are falling in the Round of 32.
At some point, Michigan's turnover issues will likely send them home and it could be Saturday against Texas A&M. The Wolverines rank 329th in turnover percentage and that plays into the hands of A&M's ball pressure defense. The Aggies are also one of the few teams that can negate Michigan's size on the boards. A&M is the top offensive rebounding team in the country. This is just a bad matchup for Michigan. The Big Ten team that plays a physical style like A&M is Michigan State and they beat the Wolverines by 13 and 17 this season. I do worry about free throws in a close game. The Aggies shoot just 69 percent from the line, but overall this is a good matchup for A&M.
I have been on Xavier for the last month. The Musketeers are a team I was high on coming into the season. After dealing with injuries and suffering some close losses, Xavier hit its stride late in the year. I also like the way Xavier won its First Four game over Texas. The reason First Four teams typically win a couple of games is because they get confidence from that first win. Illinois has been inconsistent all season. I think this sets up nicely for Xavier to outscore them and pull off the small upset.
I'm going to hit St. Mary's now that a 4 popped at Caesars. The Gaels have a significant edge defensively and should dominate the offensive glass. Mark Byington did a great job in his first season with Vanderbilt but the Commodores are one of my lowest rated teams in the field. Vanderbilt really struggles defensively, ranking last in the SEC in efficiency, effective FG percentage and three-point FG percentage. St. Mary's should limit Vanderbilt in transition and make them play in the halfcourt. That's advantage Gaels. Try to get -4 but 4.5 is still good for a St. Mary's team that has a lot of key edges in this game.