
Bruce's Past Picks
Will taking care of MSU prove more tricky for Auburn than doing the same vs. Michigan on Friday? Maybe not, though Auburn had to rally from a 9-point deficit midway in the second half to outscore Michigan by 22 the rest of the way to win handily. Bruce Pearl called upon three scorers to hit for 20+ on Friday (when Johni Broome, Denver Jones, and Tahaad Pettiford all complied) suggests real explosive balance. Meanwhile, MSU was up against the wall on Friday vs. a slightly-lesser SEC entry (Ole Miss), and for all of the Tom Izzo accolades, he doesn't always win in March, as no coach has lost more games in the Big Dance the past 20 years. Play Auburn (NCAA at Atlanta)
Tennessee has never made it to the Final Four... time for that to change. Last year's trip to the Elite 8 matched as close as UT has ever gotten, but was running into Purdue and Zach Edey in the Elite 8. The Cougars don't have that sort of component, and considering their discomfort at Lucas Oil vs. Purdue on Friday, how they fare vs. a more-uncompromising UT remains to be seen. The Vols put the clamps on Kentucky in Friday's 78-65 cruise, and the savvy Ziegler-Lanier pairing in the backcourt isn't likely to be fazed by the Cougs after dealing with SEC heavyweights all season. Is this the year for Rick Barnes to get to the Final Four? Play Tennessee (NCAA at Indianapolis).
Houston hardly looked comfy with the depth perception at Lucas Oil on Friday, as shooting suffered and caused the Cougs to kick away a 10-point lead before a Milos Uzan bucket in the last second saved the Purdue win. UH still has the nation's best scoring defense (59 ppg) and slowing down Purdue's collection of bombardiers on Friday. Tennessee doesn't have shooters the caliber of Braden Smith or Fletcher Loyer so don't expect the Vols to bomb at will on Sunday. Tennessee, however, plays rugged defense, too, and took Kentucky out of its offense on Friday. UH needs to executes a lot better than it did vs. Purdue if it wants to solve this Rick Barnes defense. Play Tennessee-Houston Under (NCAA at Indianapolis).
No need to amplify on Duke and all-everything 6-9 frosh Cooper Flagg, who put 30 on Arizona Thursday night. But before coronating the Blue Devils, note their perimeter defense was shot full of holes by Arizona's Caleb Love, who scored 35, and Duke couldn't shake the dogged Wildcats down the stretch. gg). Experience, also gained from a Final Four trip last spring, and excess firepower are great advantages for any underdog like Bama. If the 3s are falling anywhere near as they did on Thursday (when hitting 25 of 51--sheesh!--vs BYU), the Tide, after surviving the rugged SEC, can get back to another Final Four. Play Alabama (NCAA at Newark)
There hasn't been such a long-range shooting display like Bama's on Thursday vs. BYU since Loyola-Marymount's memorable 1990 run to the Elite 8, when Paul Westhead's Lions hit for 21 triples in the second round vs. Michigan. The Tide had broken that LMU record for most 3s in a game with seven minutes still to play at the Rock! While BYU conducted a suicidal resolve by trying to run with the Tide and its nation's-best 91.4 ppg offense, Jon Scheyer might not have the same approach on Saturday, though the Blue Devils and their near 84 ppg offense never shy from a shootout, either. Still, it's not hard to get sucked in by the racehorse style that Bama prefers. Play Alabama-Duke Over (NCAA at Newark)
The Red Raiders rallied vs. Arkansas on Thursday but it wasn't an offensive clinic by any means. After inconsistencies in the first two rounds, TT was only 8 for 32 from deep vs. the Porkers, continuing erratic shooting. Meanwhile, we suspect the Gators got the yips out of their system in the second-round win over UConn, as all the cylinders were firing in Thursday's romp past a dangerous Maryland side. Attacking from all angles with six double-digits scorers on Thursday led by G Will Richard's 15 points, it was Florida at its best, and this nine-game win streak vs. Big Dance entries, scoring 86 or more eight times, suggests Florida is peaking at the right time. Play Florida (NCAA at San Francisco)
Blessed with shooting accuracy from deep but not great quickness, Matt Painter's main dagger-throwers Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith usually hold the key for Purdue. Loyer and Smith, however, were collectively neutralized on more than once this season, as quickness is not their forte, and we wonder about their abilities to get clear looks against a jarring Houston that has lead the country in scoring defense for much of the season (58.4 ppg). Here's the other difference with this Cougar edition compared to recent Kelvin Sampson versions that have slipped in the Dance; UH leads the nation in three-point accuracy (39.8%), after hitting around 34% from deep in recent seasons. Sampson's best chance to finally win it all? Play Houston (NCAA at Indianapolis)
What makes the M so intriguing in Atlanta is how the Wolverines have been winning games, effectively for most of the season. Michigan has won 11 straight games decided by 4 points or fewer. Though there are some heavy losses the past two months, Michigan looks again on a roll as it was around New Year's. The unique combo of 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, and their screen-and-roll plays with Wolf an effective point-center, has the potential to unnerve. Guard Tre Donaldson is also rolling after his numbers dropped from mid-January into March. Has Auburn has lost a little steam, closing the regular season with losses in three of four, and struggling for covers last weekend? Play Michigan (NCAA at Atlanta).
Earlier results vs. UK have to unnerve the Vols a bit, because they couldn't win either game, UK winning 78-73 at Knoxville on January 28 and then a bit easier (75-64) at Lexington on February 11. Tennessee's recurring problems were on the stop end, as the Cats hit 50% from the floor on both occasions, and Vols weren't very accurate beyond the arc, making only 14 of a combined 63 attempts (a poor 22%). We have long wondered about this UT edition compared to a year ago with first-round pick Dalton Knecht. Chaz Lanier was a great portal add from North Florida, but doesn't bring the dimensions that Knecht added last year, when UT got to the Elite 8. Play Kentucky (NCAA at Indianapolis).
Tom Izzo pushed all of the right buttons since November losses to Kansas and Memphis, skillfully managing a deep MSU roster which rotates ten players in an ever-changing mix of effective rotations, with much of the electricity provided by the backcourt of sr. Jaden Adkins & highlight-reel frosh Jase Richardson. MSU also enters Atlanta having covered 10 of 11, but it's been rolling sevens for much of that stretch as a series of close decisions continue to fall Sparty's way. While this has been a redemptive campaign for Izzo, it is worth pointing out that Sparty hasn't gotten past the Sweet 16 since 2019...when he eventually lost to a Texas Tech side coached by Chris Beard. Play Ole Miss (NCAA at Atlanta).
Clever work by John Calipari got the Porker wagon back on track, interestingly after flashy frosh G Boogie Fland went down with a hand injury in late January. Fland's absence opened the door for FAU transfer Johnell Davis, who was struggling the first two months, but has now scored double-digits in all but two games since January 25. Meanwhile, Fland has recently returned to active duty but Calipari is wisely using him off the bench and has curbed his sometimes-excessive ball usage. Arkansas has length and athleticism on the blocks to give Tech's JT Toppin problems, and similar on the perimeter, where TT has been a bit trigger-happy in the Dance (46 triples vs. UNCW?). Play Arkansas (NCAA at San Francisco).
It's four months since Duke's 69-55 win at Tucson on November 22. Much has changed, especially for Arizona, which endured a surprisingly slow start to the campaign and a losing mark (3-4) out of November before finding some firmer footing. The question for Thursday is if Arizona has closed the gap? We're skeptical. Duke, with a nation's-best +21 ppg scoring margin, hits Newark covering 10 of its last 12, scoring at a 90 ppg pace that span. ACC sources also insist this is a regional edge for the Blue Devils, as even though the Rock isn't on Tobacco Road, these environs have long been very friendly territory for the Dookies, often featured in the Big Apple. Play Duke (NCAA at Newark).
Maryland dodged a bullet at the death of the Colorado State game on Sunday but not until Derik Queen got away with two (three?) extra steps on his game-winning buzzer beater vs. the Rams. Is the rumor mill impacting Maryland somewhat as Kevin Willard's name keeps being mentioned for the Villanova opening? Meanwhile, Florida overcame the yips vs. UConn on Sunday and in truth had that game a bit more controlled than the 77-75 final scoreline suggests. Maryland will have to keep pace with a jet-fueled 85.4 ppg Gator attack led by guards Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard (combined 46 ppg). These teams combine for better than 167 ppg! Clearing 156 seems reasonable. Play Maryland-Florida Over (NCAA at San Francisco).
As long as UAB has caught its breath after chasing down Santa Clara on Sunday, another NIT road success is possible. Double-double machine 6-9 PF Yaxel Lendeborg (17.8 ppg & 11.2 rpg, third nationally in the latter) caries a streak of five straight double-doubles into Irvine, and help at SCU was provided by 6-8 frontliner Christian Coleman, who scored 21, part of the Blazers' potent offensive brew (82.5 ppg) and greater challenges up front than UCI faced in the Big West. The NIT has already tested the mettle of Andy Kennedy's team, flying the Blazers all across the country, though UAB has at least been able to stay in the same time zone after the win at Santa Clara. Play UAB (NIT).
Kent State switched gears in February by accelerating the tempo. That triggered a five-game win streak, and a stretch of four 90+-point games in five to climb back into the MAC race, with a mature, senior-laden lineup led by hot G Jalen Sullinger (scored 34 in the second-round win at Stanford) lighting the fuse. Note the Flashes have scored 72 or more in 12 of their last 13 as well. Meanwhile, wins are wins, though the Ramblers have been riding lightning in this event with their own hair-raisers in the Bay Area against a sub-.500 San Jose State and a San Francisco side minus key cog Marcus Williams. The Golden Flashes can accelerate the pass better than any A-10 foe. Play Kent State (NIT).