It's worth mentioning that lesser Notre Dame teams gave Ohio State all it could handle the past two seasons, covering both times. The Irish were also one play away from victory last season at South Bend. Both the 2022 (21-10) and 2023 (17-14) scorelines suggest Al Golden's defense can keep OSU in check, and those were Buckeye sides with CJ Stroud in 2022 and Marvin Harrison Jr each of the last two seasons. This is a better Notre Dame team with another top ten Golden defense and a big-play offense detonated by Duke transfer QB Riley Leonard. Note the Irish have covered 12 straight pointspreads this season and are 23-5 vs. the spread under Marcus Freeman since last year. Play Notre Dame.

The money and action (in Nevada, at least) seems to be lining up behind the Buckeyes, but we've never been afraid to buck the masses. The key tonight could be the 1st Q; if OSU jumps out quickly (and that's an understatement after the last two games) as it did vs. Tennessee and Oregon, the Longhorns will be in trouble. Remember, however, Texas has been a quick-starter, too; staying close or ahead 3-0 or 7-3 early would be akin to weathering the early rounds vs. a big puncher in a boxing match. But only in the first Georgia meeting this season did Texas find itself in a serious early hole. Does the Longhorn defense have enough athletes to not get overrun? Play Texas (Cotton Bowl)

It's easy to get carried away by these fireworks displays lately from Ohio State, but for large swaths of this season, the Buckeyes were a decidedly under team, including one 6-1 stretch in that direction at midseason. The Longhorns have also played a couple of higher-scoring playoff games, yet were 7-1-1 under prior to the Clemson contest. Note only two Longhorns games got beyond 52 points in the regular season, Sept. 14 vs. UTSA and Nov. 9 in a distorted game vs. Florida. It seems the Texas defense has enough athleticism to somewhat mitigate the Jeremiah Smith factor and not get overrun. Meanwhile, note the Buckeyes allowed beyond 21 points only in the 32-31 loss at Oregon on October 12. Play Ohio State-Texas Under

There remains the thought the Domers have caught a break schedule-wise. We recall USC and Jayden Maiava moving a bit too easily thru the air vs. Al Golden's brawling defense on November 30, and note ND was facing backup Georgia QB Gunner Stockton in the Sugar Bowl. Scoring points is how to win games and seems Penn State can negotiate that a bit easier with its collection of weapons paced by do-everything TE Tyler Warren, all operating smoothly in first-year OC Andy Kotelnicki's progressive attack. Recent work by the Riley Leonard-led Notre Dame offense is less convincing, and the Georgia game turned around on a short field following a turnover and an Irish KR TD by Jayden Harrison. Play Penn State (Orange Bowl)

The portal has taken a bite out of Liberty, with do-everything QB Kaidon Salter off to Colorado and top RB Quinton Cooley (1264 YR; portal) both unavailable, and the Flames are also down thee starters along the OL. Liberty has disappointed this season, only 3-8 vs. the line and 4-11 against the spread since late 2023. Further, HC Jamey Chadwell is 0-4 vs. the spread in bowls with Liberty and Coastal Carolina. Meanwhile, Pete Lembo's Buffalo closed the season hot with four wins into Nassau, and mostly avoided major losses to the portal in the run-up to this bowl. Still in the fold is QB CJ Ogbonna (2244 YP and 19 TDF passes plus 311 YR) in the Bahamas. Play Buffalo (Bahamas Bowl)

It's been a brutal bowl run for the ACC with just 2 wins in 12, and unless getting a favorable number with either Syracuse or Louisville in their games, no spread covers, either. VPI has lost 14 starters to the portal or injury, and apparently goes again at QB with frosh Pop Watson with Kyron Drones still out. Meanwhile, the Gophers are arguably the nation's most-successful bowl performer, winning seven straight the last five of those with HC PJ Fleck, with spread covers in those as well. Minnesota hasn't been hit as hard by the portal, and New Hampshire transfer QB Max Brosmer has had a solid season, passing for 2617 yards with 17 TDs and only 5 picks. Play Minnesota (Duke's Mayo Bowl)

High scoring has dominated most of the bowls thus far, and I see no reason this one should be any different. UNT is without QB Chandler Morris, but coach Eric Morris has an air-it-out offense regardless, and backup Drew Mestemaker will get his chance to air it out on Friday. The Mean Green passed for 3,874 yards this season and 31 touchdowns, and sources suggest Mestemaker can hold his own. The real feasting, however, should happen for the Bobcats and well-traveled QB Jordan McCloud, who was sensational this season (29 passing touchdowns, seven rushing). That the Mean Green defense ranked 119th in TDs allowed adds further fuel to the Over fire. Play the Over.

Not a great bowl season for the SEC, though few are expecting Ole Miss to lose outright as a 17-point favorite over Duke at the Gator Bowl. It also hasn't been a bowl season for unders though we expect this Gator Bowl might change that pattern. SEC onlookers know that Lane Kiffin's Rebels did an effective job keeping the clock moving, and with a big-time defense that wrecked Georgia, among other teams, helped Ole Miss to an eye-opening 10-1 under mark across its last 11 games. With third-string QB Henry Belin IV being Duke's remaining option at QB in Jacksonville, hardly expect the Blue Devils to do significant damage as this 51.5 looks a real mountain to clear in Jacksonville. Play Duke-Ole Miss Under

Was the price impacted in the Rose Bowl toward the Buckeyes as the public digested the blowout result of the first-round romp past Tennessee? Are the masses conveniently forgetting that OSU lost its previous game to Michigan and had some other struggles during the season, including the first Oregon clash? We remain unconvinced that Howard has been an upgrade at QB from Kyle McCord last season. Oregon had a couple of close calls, too, but when watching the Ducks we get the feeling they can hit the accelerator when needed with QB Dillon Gabriel and an attack that can strike quicker than OSU. Any Buckeyes revenge psychology edge probably mitigated a bit by the fact OSU is favored. Play Oregon (Rose Bowl)

It became harder and harder to overlook ASU down the stretch as the Sun Devils won and covered their last six. Cam Skattebo (1568 YR, 22 TDs) lit the fuse, but QB Sam Leavitt's emergence was no less important, tossing 16 TD passes with just one pick across the last six games. Too often we saw Texas play to the level of the opposition this season, and thought the Horns were fortunate to get the spread cover in the opening round vs. Clemson. Moreover, QB Quinn Ewers has been dealing with an ankle and playing at a bit less than 100%. Atlanta also not kind to Texas in the SEC title game, where Georgia beat the Horns days ago. Play ASU (Peach Bowl)

This will be a challenge for Boise to keep pace with Penn State and its potent offense. The Nittany Lions were at times a bit too "cutesy" for OC Andy Kotelnicki, but there is plenty of diversity, with two slashing RBs in Nicholas Singleton and Kayton Allen, plus a great weapon in TE Tyler Warren (92 catches for 1095 yards this season). QB Drew Allar also passed for more than 3000 yards. Of course, RB Ashton Jeanty gives Boise a slashing presence, and the Broncos did play Oregon close on September 7, but it will take more than wearing the throwback uniforms from the 2007 Fiesta Bowl on this same field for the Broncos to hang close. Play Penn State (Fiesta Bowl)

Any place other than Husky Stadium wasn't a good place this season for U-Dub, which lost all six away from its home field for first-year HC Jedd Fisch. Huskies issues were partly at QB, where Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers could only post lukewarm stats and was eventually displaced by skittery frosh Demond Williams. Meanwhile, Jeff Brohm has been waiting 12 months to get another bowl shot for his Cards after the Holiday loss to USC last December. The 'Ville is minus QB Tyler Shough and top RB Isaac Brown, but frosh RB Duke Watson flashed big-play ability down the stretch, while QB Harrison Bailey is a six-year college veteran who finally gets a chance in a bowl. Play Louisville on ML (Sun Bowl)

Iowa can ill afford to be minus key weaponry but star RB Kaleb Johnson (1537 YR and 23 TDs) is skipping this Music City Bowl. Already minus QB Cade McNamara, backup Brendan Sullivan has been cleared to perform after missing the reg season finale vs Nebraska. Mind, Iowa QBs tossed only 9 TD passes all season. Mizzou is also minus homerun wideout Luther Burden but QB Brady Cook is going to make his fourth bowl start and has a 26-13 career mark. Too often the past couple of years we have seen Iowa's offense not be able to keep pace, and remember how the Tigers physically handled a better Big Ten rep (Ohio State) in the Cotton Bowl last year. Play Missouri (Music City Bowl)

BYU was a revelation this season, but the Cougars also cut it very close on many occasions, often relying on late-game magic from QB Jake Retzlaff. The Cougs, however, were not steaming down the stretch, losing twice in November and without a spread cover in their last four games. As far as revelations go this season, Colorado was as good as any, as Deion Sanders' Buffs won eight and covered nine of their last ten, narrowly missing the conference title game. With most draft-eligible Buffs (like both Sanders boys and Heisman winner Travis Hunter) sticking around for the bowl and not many CU players opting yet for the portal, expect the Deion momentum to continue for one more night. Play Colorado (Alamo Bowl)

Bill O'Brien had a very positive debut season with the Eagles, who closed fast with spread covers in their last five games. A late-season switch at QB to former FIU transfer Grayson James (64% completions) lent a bit more bite to the aerial game that also features big-target 6-5 wideout Reed Harris, while the Eagles were able to run with consistency all season. Nebraska showed well at times this season behind electric frosh QB Dylan Raiola, but the Huskers lost five of their last six, their only win in five away from Lincoln was at woeful Purdue, and their penchant for blowing close games is well-documented. Play BC (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)