Bob's Past Picks
Ole Miss is off a loss to their instate rival, while the Aggies have lost two of their last three. Texas A&M really rely on two scorers, as they’re shooting less than 46% effectively on the road. The Rebels are 9-0 SU at home where they shoot 51.9% effectively. Ole Miss has seven players averaging nine points, or more, with the more productive bench as well. The Aggies still lead the nation in offensive rebounding, but capitalizing on offense still has been the issue. Ole Miss has just as good of a defense and are able to defend the perimeter better while also protecting the ball on offense.
Super fishy line here. Charlotte has yet to win a conference game while the Bulls are 1-4 SU on the road. Charlotte is shooting 46% effectively at home and less than 29% from beyond the arc over their last three games. They really struggle to defend inside the arc as their opponents are shooting 56.5%. The Bulls are the more consistent team on offense, shooting 55.4% effectively on the road and over 77% from the free throw line.
KJ Adams is listed as out tonight per some reports. TCU is 9-0 SU at home but only 4-6 ATS. The Jayhawks have a +5.3 point differential on the road while shooting 46.6% effectively. Kansas seems to be leaning more on their defense this season as their middle of pack in shooting from beyond the arc. The Horned Frogs are transfer heavy and while this is the second most efficient defense they’ve faced yet, but their getting healthier and have covered five of the last seven against Kansas.
Louisville is 5-0 ATS on the road this season. The Mustangs are 8-2 SU at home but only 5-5 ATS. The pace won’t be the issue since both teams will want to get up and down the floor. SMU has been shooting 63.6% effectively over their last three games. The Cardinals took advantage of some of the conferences weaker opponents over their eight-game win streak but now face an SMU team that leads the conference in rebounding. The Mustangs are also one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country and shooting 44.9% over their last three games. Louisville struggles defending the three and have been inconsistent, at time, on offense.
This is only the third road game for Dayton. They’re 0-2 SU and ATS, also being favored in both games. The Dukes come into this game off their big win over St. Bonaventure, but are still only 6-4 SU at home. However, they’re 4-0 ATS as home underdogs. The Flyers have struggled in conference play, being 0-5 ATS and have issues defending the perimeter. Over their last three games, Duquesne has been shooting 54% effectively and 81% from the free throw line. There’s no doubt the Flyers have the more talented team, but Duquesne has turned their season around, playing more like the tournament team from last season.
Cincinnati finally got their first two wins in conference play this season. They’re 8-2 SU at home but only 3-7 ATS, losing their only game to the Jayhawks as home underdogs. The Bearcats offense looks good on paper, but they’ve only been averaging 55.6 points over their last four games. All of their losses have come against teams with above average defenses and now face a Texas Tech defense ranking 37th in efficiency and holding opponents to under 70 points on the season. The Red Raiders are the better rebounding team and have the more consistent offense, 2nd in the conference from beyond the arc.
Kent State has dropped their last two games, one against the best team in the MAC and one against one of the worst. The Rockets are 4-1 SU at home but only 1-3 ATS. Toledo defensive numbers might be a little skewed due to some of their non-conference opponents. But, over their last three conference games, they have a +4.3 point differential. The Golden Flashes 4-1-1 ATS on the road but still shooting 40.9% effectively and less than 23% from beyond the arc. Toledo has the deeper bench and play a fast-paced style to wear down their opponent.
Incarnate Word has lost four in a row. The Vaqueros have lost three of their last four and are 1-6 SU on the road this season. However, UT Rio Grande Valley is 4-2-1 ATS on the road. Neither team is currently in the best form and the line is moving in the Cardinals favor. Incarnate Word has faced one of the easier schedules in the country with one of the worst perimeter defenses in the country. The Vaqueros have been in a funk since conference play began, 1-5-1 ATS, but they’re still shooting above 52% effectively on the road with a slight edge on the glass, especially offensively.
Both of these teams are at the top of the Big 10 and very similar in many ways. Michigan State is 9-0 SU at home this season, but only 5-4 ATS. This one will come down to free throw shooting with such a short spread. The Spartans are shooting over 84% from the stripe while Illinois is shooting 75%. Both top 25 defenses but got to give the edge to the Spartans with home court.
Oregon State is off their big win over the Bulldogs. However, they’re only 1-3 SU on the road this season. San Francisco is 11-0 SU at home and only two of those games were decided by less than five points. The Dons play their best defense at home, holding opponents to 65 points per game. They guard the perimeter well and are able to force turnovers at home with their home court advantage.
BYU has yet to win a game on the road this season. But they’ve won five of their las seven meetings between these two. The Utes have won two straight and return home where they’re 9-2 SU. Both are experienced teams and struggle from the free throw line. BYU is currently 7th in the nation in effectiveness inside the arc. However, the Utes have the side to compete even though the edge on the boards goes to BYU. The Tigers struggle defending the perimeter which is where Utah can take advantage.
Texas A&M is off two straight losses. The Tigers are 1-2 ATS on the road thus far and really struggle protecting the ball, near the bottom of the country in turnovers. LSU may miss the presence of Jalen Reed downlow, as the Aggies lead the nation in offensive rebounding. Texas A&M’s lone home loss came against the Crimson Tide, who are much better than LSU. The Tigers are shooting less than 30% from beyond the arc on the road and are the better free throw shooting team, but Texas A&M’s defense is no joke, as they’re holding opponents to 60 points per game at home.
Missouri is off their massive upset of the Gators and now take on a struggling Arkansas squad. This number feels like it should be higher than it’s currently set at. The Razorbacks have failed to cover eight of their last 10 games and Missouri is undefeated at home thus far, but only 6-7 ATS. The Razorbacks have the better defense in this one and have won seven of the last eight in this series. They’re still searching for their first conference win, but they protect the ball well and have a -2.6 point differential on the road.
Wisconsin makes their first trip out to the West Coast and they’re 2-1 ATS on the road. The Trojans are on a nice two game win streak and shooting over 58% effectively over their last three games. USC has started to performed better after shortening their rotation and do a better job at creating turnovers as compared to the Badgers. They have just as much experience as Wisconsin and even though the Badgers are 7-3 SU in their last 10, making the West Coast trip as given some Big 10 teams trouble.
Duquesne may have turned a corner after their rough start to the season. The Bonnies come into this one losing two of their last three games, losing less than 49% from inside the arc. St. Bonaventure is 5-1 SU and ATS on the road this season, but this line is very short. Over their last four games, the Dukes have defeated Rhode Island, St. Joe’s and George Washington, some of the better teams in the conference. They’re over 51% from the floor, 75% from the stripe and averaging five turnovers per game over their last three.