Bob's Picks (2 Live)
Bob's Past Picks
These have been two of the best defenses in the country throughout the season. Duke has the height advantage, and the Cougars want a slower paced style of game. It will be difficult to slow down this Duke offense, who has more offensive weapons and the number one offense in the country in terms of efficiency. The Cougars want to control the offensive glass, but they may struggle with Duke’s size and if they aren’t controlling that, they’ll rely more on the three. The Blue Devils are the more complete team on both sides of the ball.
Johni Broome’s health for this game is the cause for the Tigers to be underdogs. This game would most likely be closer to a pick ‘em if he was 100%. However, the public seems to forget how dominant Auburn was throughout the season. They matchup very well with the Gators and have the guard play to defend the perimeter, as Florida relies heavily on the three. The Tigers perimeter defense has been excellent, holding opponents to less than 33% in the tournament. Florida was down most of the game against the Red Raiders and Auburn won’t forget this team putting up 90 on them in the last meeting.
Florida’s games have gone over the total in 11 straight games. Both teams are in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and while they’re also the number two and three offenses in the country, it may take a little to get used to playing in the Alamodome. The Tigers defense have been the best part of their game in postseason, going under the total in five of their last six games. The total has also gone under in five of the last six meetings between these two.
The public is all over Tennessee in this matchup. The Cougars lead the nation in three-point percentage, but Tennessee has been defending the perimeter very well. The Volunteers are just as efficient defensively as Houston, but they face the number one scoring defense in the country. The Cougars are able to create more turnovers and defend the rim better than Tennessee, which is where the Volunteers play their game. This Houston team is their best offensive team they’ve had which gives them their best chance to make it to the Final Four.
Houston is the public side even though this is basically a semi-home game for the Boilermakers. However, Purdue has struggled all season against teams with above average big man. The Cougars have an experienced team to go along with the number one scoring defense in the country. Purdue is near the bottom of country in defending inside the arc and around the rim, 341st in the nation. The Cougars are also one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers and have a much improved offense as compared to last season.
This seems like a lot of points for Auburn to be laying. They haven’t been performing like the number one overall seed, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games. The Wolverines have won and covered their last five games and have the big men in the middle to compete on the glass. Yes, Auburn is the deeper team, and the Wolverines have struggled mightily with turnovers this season, but their guards have been defending at a high level. Dusty May is an excellent coach who has proven he can make a deep run in this tournament and keep this one close.
Kentucky performed very well without Lamont Butler in the lineup down the stretch and have looked even better with him back in it for the tournament. It’s very tough to beat a time three times in a season but the Wildcats match up very well, especially with Rick Barnes ATS record in the tournament, 6-18 since 2018. Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler have been performing well and while they have the edge on the defensive side, Tennessee doesn’t have as many scorers as the Wildcats.
Ole Miss has five players averaging in double figures, along with Sean Pedulla, who has 29 more made threes than the entire Spartans squad. Michigan State is deeper, but not as experienced as the Rebels. Michigan State relies heavily on their defense and are ranked first in the country in defending the perimeter. However, their offense struggled from three and the Rebels defend the rim very well along with protecting the ball. The SEC has performed very well in this tournament and the Ole Miss offense is in better current form than the Spartans.
Texas Tech has had some difficulty with teams with size throughout the season. It’s also unclear if they’ll have Chance McMillian back for the Sweet 16. Adou Thiero is back for the Razorbacks but could be limited moving forward according to the Coach Cal. This line hasn’t moved since it opened with the big difference here being on the offensive glass. Texas Tech is the more physical team and have very efficient around the rim. The Red Raiders average five less turnovers per game than Arkansas during the tournament and the more consistent free throw shooting team all season.
Duke seems like it’s a little overpriced for this game. The Wildcats have one of the most experienced rosters in the country which may come in handy in this one, to at least cover the number. They’re a good rebounding team, as Duke struggled on the offensive glass against the Bears being outrebounded 18 to 3. The Wildcats have also scored 86 points, or more, in four of the last five games. This will be there toughest test defensively but Caleb Love will be playing with a little chip on his shoulder to keep this within the number.
Florida has the best offense in the country but now face one of the more physical defenses in the country in the Terps. Maryland, probably, should’ve lost their last game against the Rams but will have something to prove in this one. The Gators also struggled against the 81st ranked defense in the country in UConn. Maryland has the physicality downlow to compete on the boards and one the perimeter with their guards to attempt to limit the perimeter shooting from the Gators that has been excellent the entire season.
The Crimson Tide have been shaky all season and barely got past the Robert Morris in the first round. They can put up points with anyone in the country but it’s their defense that’s the issue. The Cougars are 11-1 SU in their last 12 and have one of the best offenses in the country. Alabama defends the perimeter very well, 22nd in the country, but the Cougars take good shots all around, inside and outside, and are the better rebounding team to allow second chance opportunities and possibly pull off the upset.
New Mexico has improved their defense throughout the season, limiting second chance opportunities. The Spartans have struggled beyond the arc all season long but currently lead the nation in defending it. New Mexico has the ability to create turnovers leading to transition buckets which may be difficult against this season but they have the offensive players to keep this one within the number.