The Ohio State Buckeyes played a much more demanding non-conference schedule (No. 5 vs. No. 32) while owning better net yards per play (+2.7 vs. +1.9) overall. Ohio State’s point differential is +24.6, while Oregon is +18.8. The Ducks outgained four of six fellow Bowl teams with an average yards per game of +82. Ohio State outgained six of seven Bowl teams for an average yards per game of +145. Oregon outgained the Buckeyes in that one-point home victory. After that game, Ohio State changed its defensive scheme, which has dramatically helped. I like Ohio State in this revenge spot!

Last season, Missouri defeated Ohio State 14-3 in the Cotton Bowl, which we had as an easy winner. Remember how many players were out for the Buckeyes, including their quarterback Kyle McCord and first-round pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.? I don’t think this Missouri team is as talented, and it’s a little bit of a letdown spot playing against Iowa. The Hawkeyes lost 35-0 in last year’s Citrus Bowl, so you know they are highly motivated in this one. Both teams have key opt-outs which are accounted for in the line. A strong system for years in Bowl games is to “play on” teams as underdogs if they lost their previous Bowl game by 30 or more. Grab the points.

The Trojans began their season with a victory over LSU at Allegiant Stadium, the same venue as the Las Vegas Bowl. This familiarity with the environment may give them a slight advantage in comfort and preparation. In contrast, Texas A&M suffered losses in three of their last four games, including their final three conference matchups. They lost three starting defenseman lineman to the transfer portal, which was the strength of their defense. In last year's Holiday Bowl, USC overcame opt-outs and showed up ready to play, bringing the fight to Louisville. This experience suggests that Lincoln Riley and his staff know how to motivate and prepare the team for postseason play. USC also lost some key players, but they have a deep roster. Dog call.

This line seems high to me. Tennessee has a +83-yard differential against fellow bowl teams, while Ohio State is +18. The Volunteers own a +6 point differential against fellow bowl teams, while the Buckeye are +5. Tennessee also has better yards per point on both sides of the ball against bowl teams this season. Don’t forget, The Vols and Penn State are the only teams to hold five opponents to season-low yardage. Tennessee is ranked higher in down-by-down consistency, ranking 28th compared to 36th for the Buckeyes. Both teams have solid kickers. However, Tennessee is ranked 43rd in net punt yards, while Ohio State is ranked 94th. The Vols went 7-5 ATS this season, including 4-0 when playing on Field Turf. Grab the points.

No team has lost more players to the transfer portal than the Mountaineers after firing head coach Neal Brown. The Tigers' high-powered offense, 35.2 points per game, should exploit West Virginia's vulnerable defense that allows 31.1 points. Memphis Senior QB Seth Henigan (Texas native) and running back Mario Anderson form a potent offensive duo that will challenge the Mountaineers' 106th-ranked defense. Memphis is riding a wave of momentum, starkly contrasting West Virginia's interim head coaching issues. The Tigers are highly motivated, aiming to defeat a Power-5 team, and their bowl game success (3-0 run) further strengthens their chances to win. The players have a strong affection for head coach Ryan Silverfield, who stands to earn a $50,000 bonus with a victory.

Boise State's tackling performance in 2024 has been a significant area of concern. The Broncos rank 130th in PFF's Tackling grades, which places them near the bottom of all FBS teams. This poor tackling performance is further emphasized by their ranking of 196th out of all FBS and FCS defenses in broken and missed tackles allowed. UNLV has recorded 82 tackles for loss on 376 attempts, which ranks as the 3rd best among Non-Power Conference teams. Tackling in extreme cold weather is complex, and the Runnin' Rebels have a big-time edge. They are playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and in last year's MWC championship game. UNLV has a massive special teams advantage as well.

Kansas State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 23 vs. No. 32) and has better net yards per play (+0.9 vs. +0.6). The Wildcats have the better sack differential (+1.6 vs. -0.3) and have outgained 10 of 11 foes this season. Kansas State is ranked 15th in rushing yards per game (202.7), while Iowa State is ranked 100th in rushing yards allowed (176.6). Last year, the Cyclones defeated Kansas State 42-35 as 9.5-point road dogs, despite a 32-10 First down margin and 42:12 to 17:48 time of possession deficit. The underdog is 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings. This will be the season's first game in which the Wildcats are underdogs as they look to play spoiler. Take the points!

The Kansas Jayhawks have strong cornerbacks, Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson, to defend against the pass, which Colorado relies on heavily. Colorado has faced a weaker schedule, ranked No. 41 compared to No. 24, and has yet to secure a victory against a ranked team. Kansas is ranked 19th in both EPA per play and offensive success rate, averaging over 400 yards in four of their last five games. The Buffaloes' offensive metrics are closer to average than elite (42nd EPA per play & 44th in success rate). They've surpassed 400 yards just twice in their last five games. Colorado ranks 23rd in luck rankings, while Kansas is 132nd. The Jayhawks need victories to become bowl-eligible. Strong system on the home dog!

The Indiana Hoosiers have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. The Buckeyes' starting Center went down in practice and is out. They are also dealing with other critical injuries up and down the roster. Indiana will be super motivated, considering Ohio State is 10-0 SU against the Hoosiers in their last ten meetings. Ironically, Indiana enters this matchup at 10-0. Take the points!

South Alabama is a talented 4-5 team with two weeks of preparation time, looking to avenge last year's loss despite out-gaining Louisiana 498 to 348 yards. The Jaguars are motivated to win all their remaining games and aim for a bowl appearance. On the other hand, the Ragin Cajuns only have a little to play for, especially with a significant revenge game against Troy coming up. It's worth noting that the underdog has performed well, going 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings. In their three most recent encounters, South Alabama has been outscored by only 12 points combined. QB Gio Lopez is good to go. I like the road underdog in this matchup!

The Utah Utes are currently ranked 11th in the nation on defense, allowing only 16.5 points per game. As an undefeated team facing a .500 opponent, BYU may enter the matchup feeling overconfident, which could enable Utah to keep the score closer than expected. Playing at home in the Holy War in what should be a low-scoring game significantly enhances Utah's ability to cover four points, as they need wins to become bowl-eligible. Full disclosure. I bet Utah at +4 and will be graded at that number at The Sports Monitor of OK. This line became available late at Sportsline. I still like anything over 3.

The Gamecocks have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game, while Texas A&M is coming off their biggest win of the season. However, that victory over LSU was somewhat misleading, as the Aggies were outgained in total yards, 429 to 376. They had a favorable plus-two turnover margin and benefited from three missed field goals by LSU. The Aggies have been outgained in three of their last four games, which raises concerns. South Carolina is just two plays away from having a record of 6-1, as they easily could have defeated both LSU and Alabama. The Gamecocks have played the slightly tougher schedule (No. 3 vs. No. 7). I like the home dog in this spot.

Penn State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 27 vs. No. 35). Under James Franklin, Penn State is 3-6 straight-up following BYE weeks and 1-3 SU in Big Ten road games. His 41.7% against the spread rate is primary fade bait. In 2018, Michigan State defeated Penn State, and in 2019, Minnesota also secured a victory against them. In 2021, Illinois triumphed over Penn State after a historic nine overtimes. Expect a tough defensive battle between two physical Big Ten teams. Wisconsin’s strong run game and home-field advantage will keep it competitive. They also have much better special teams. After six straight wins to start the season, the Nittany Lions may not have wanted a week off. Penn State faces Ohio State next week.

This line seems inflated, but these two teams are very evenly matched. Virginia is ranked 56th in strength of schedule, while North Carolina is ranked 67th. The Tar Heels own a -0.6 net yards per play, while Virginia averages -0.4 net yards per play this season. Last season, the Cavaliers defeated North Carolina 31-27 as 24-point underdogs despite getting out-gained 490-436. The Tar Heels have two weeks to prepare and should be super focused on snapping their four-game losing streak. Virginia has been excellent against the spread this season but has only been favored by more than five points once. I like the road dog!

Both teams are well-rested, coming off a bye week, and have faced similar strength of schedules (Nebraska No. 73 vs. Indiana No. 71). This game is a classic matchup between offense and defense. Indiana's high-powered offense will face a tough challenge against Nebraska's strong defense (13.0 points per game). The BYE week is more challenging for a high-powered offense that produces points every week. The Cornhuskers have the defensive talent to slow down Indiana's attack. An early start time helps the underdog stay within the number.