Jake's Picks (1 Live)
Jake's Past Picks
Nick Kurtz is heating up at the plate, having launched 3 home runs over the past two days after managing just one in his first 23 games. Today's game in Sacramento is expected to feature very hitter-friendly weather, which could further boost his power potential. While Kurtz is 0-for-14 against left-handed pitching this season, he showed the ability to hit lefties in college and is likely to improve. He faces Tyler Anderson, who has struggled against left-handed hitters this year, allowing a .280 average and a .953 OPS. We set his line +500, so getting Kurtz at +550 offers intriguing value.
Josh Jung is a compelling longshot play, especially considering his strong road performance this season, where he boasts a .903 OPS compared to just .694 at home. He faces Carlos Rodón, who has been sharp overall but remains vulnerable to the long ball—particularly against right-handed hitters. Jung's odds at +650 are significantly higher than the consensus line of +550, offering excellent value. With our line at +520, this pick stands out as a solid longshot play.
Riley Greene hit his 12th home run in yesterday's game, which was his 11th off a right-handed pitcher this season. Greene has a 1.027 OPS vs righties this season compared to a .529 OPS vs lefties. Cardinals' SP Andre Pallante has given up 8 HRs this season after allowing just 8 in 121 IP last season. We set Greene's line at +400 to hit a HR.
Kyle Tucker broke a 9 game homer drought with a HR in yesterday's game vs. Miami. Marlins' pitcher Max Meyer has struggled over his last 4 starts, and while he has stronger home stats, he's given up 6 of his 8 home runs allowed while at home when you can get a left vs right matchup at a reasonable price with a player as good as Tucker, it's usually at least worth a sprinkle. We set Tucker's line at +370 to hit a HR.
This is a buy low spot for Tyler Stephenson who is hitting just .173 over 15 games this season. When an opponent starts a left-handed pitcher, Stephenson is a career .295 hitter with an 0.872 OPS. Andrew Heaney is susceptible to giving up home runs and 42 of the 46 home runs he allowed in 2023 and 2024 came against right-handed bats. We set Stephenson's line at +425
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits his home runs in bunches and is amidst a hot streak, having launched 4 home runs over his last 8 games. His power has been especially potent against right-handed pitchers, boasting a .339 batting average and 11 of his 12 home runs against them. While Chris Bassitt kept the ball in the park in his most recent outing, he allowed two home runs in each of the three starts prior. Tatis is 0-for-6 in his career against Bassitt, which may be why we are getting the +370 line. However, given Tatis's dominance against RHPs, this looks like a strong value play. We set our line for Tatis to homer at around +275.
Josh Naylor is in a prime spot to drive in runs, batting cleanup behind Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll. He's hitting .330 with a .951 OPS against right-handed pitchers, and with the game total set at 10 runs, there's plenty of opportunity. Dodgers' starter Landon Knack has a 1.51 WHIP, indicating frequent baserunners. At +185, this is a value line we'd price closer to even money.
Zach Neto has scored in 9 of his last 12 games and in 7 of 11 road games this season. Neto is a player where you have to take his early career stats with a grain of salt since he played less than 50 minor league games after being drafted. He's showing steady improvement with an OPS of .893 so far this season, making him one of the more underrated players in the league. With a 70% run-scoring rate in simulations and FanDuel pricing this at -150, there's clear value at -110.
Logan O'Hoppe is in a bit of a slump, making this a potential buy-low opportunity-especially after getting a rest day from catching duties. Despite the recent cold streak, O'Hoppe has hit 9 of his 10 home runs this season off right-handed pitching. He'll face A's starter JT Ginn, who's returning from the IL and making his first start in nearly a month. Ginn has struggled in his limited home appearances, surrendering 4 home runs in just two starts. With favorable matchup splits and park factors, we set O'Hoppe's line at +500, making the +525 at BetMGM a solid value play.
Gunnar Henderson has been battling strikeout issues lately, but when he connects, he's doing serious damage. He's hit 4 home runs in his last 9 games, though he's also had 5 multi-strikeout performances in that span. Henderson has been especially effective against right-handed pitching this season, slashing .310 with a .955 OPS. He'll face Brewers starter Quinn Priester, who has struggled against lefties, allowing a .909 OPS compared to just .650 against righties.
This pick is more about fading the Orioles than backing the Brewers. Baltimore is in disarray, having lost six straight games and recently firing manager Brandon Hyde. Their 15-30 start is a sharp decline from last season's 91-win campaign, and a lot of blame should also be placed on ownership which allowed Corbin Burnes to leave and didn't replace him with another ace. The Brewers are significantly better at home (13-9) than on the road (9-16), and while Quinn Priester has had a rough start overall, he's 1-1 in two home starts. The Orioles are just 1-5 in Dean Kremer's road starts and the Brewers are projected to win 62% of simulations, giving a -110 price plenty of value.
Kodai Senga has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in two of his last three starts and faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks third in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers. While he's only 3-5 on this line for the season, similar strikeout pitchers have gone 5-1 on this prop in recent matchups against Boston. With a projection of 6.1 strikeouts, this is a solid value play.
Books are still trying to pin down the right price for the red-hot Kyle Stowers. Stowers has already launched 10 home runs this season-an impressive jump considering he hit just 6 total over stints in his previous three MLB seasons. However, this power surge isn't entirely out of nowhere; in the minors, he posted a 36-HR pace over a 162-game stretch. The key difference this year is that he's finally settled into a consistent role in the majors. All 10 of his homers have come against right-handed pitchers, and today he faces Cubs starter Ben Brown, a righty who has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters (.305 AVG, .832 OPS allowed). We project Stowers at +550 to go deep, so +650 is solid value.
Ben Brown has been dominant on the road this season, with the Cubs winning his three road starts by a combined score of 44-3 (18-0, 16-3, 10-0). Brown was solid in his start against the Marlins in his start last week as he went 5.1 IP and allowed just 2 ER. The Marlins have struggled with Edward Cabrera on the mound, going just 1-3 in his home starts and 2-4 overall. The Cubs, one of MLB's top teams, are projected to win in 66% of simulations, making this a solid play against one of the league's worst teams.