This number is already 20.5 at most books, so -128 at 19.5 presents value. Powell has been much better at home during this series, scoring 20 and 22 points in his two home games, compared to 13 or less in all three games on the road. While Kawhi Leonard’s consistent presence has dipped Powell’s volume slightly, he still averaged 25 Pts+Rebs during the regular season. Our model projects him at 21.6 in this home matchup, and we like the bounce-back spot.

Jarren Duran has owned José Berríos in his career, going 9-for-18 with a staggering 8 extra-base hits (3 HRs and 5 doubles). As the leadoff hitter, any early XBH puts him in immediate scoring position, especially with Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman swinging hot bats behind him. This matchup gives Duran a great opportunity to cross the plate, and our model sets the fair value line at -140.

You’re getting strong value here, as the same play is priced at -145 on BetMGM and DraftKings. Brice Turang missed yesterday’s game with an illness, but if he’s in the lineup, he’s likely leading off against a right-hander. Turang is batting .343 vs. RHPs this season, and he’s followed by Yelich (.888 OPS vs. RHP) and Jackson Chourio, who is starting to heat up. Turang has shown a pattern of scoring in games following a scoreless outing, having done so in his last five chances.

Jose Ramírez hasn’t driven in a run in five straight games, but this looks like a strong get-right spot. He faces Simeon Woods-Richardson, who is getting hammered by left-handed hitters (.381 AVG against this season). While the switch-hitting Ramírez has recently hit better from the right side, he’s historically been a tough out as a lefty. With hitter-friendly weather and a game total of 9, this looks like a high-scoring spot where Ramírez should see RBI chances. We set the line around -125, so the +115 line offers strong value.

Rudy Gobert has only 14 points across 4 playoff games, but he showed a bit more activity in the last one with 6 field goal attempts. Averaging 12 points and nearly 2 assists during the regular season, Gobert could benefit if the Lakers focus more on the perimeter defensively. That could open opportunities for dunks or lobs inside. We’ve adjusted his projection down for the playoffs, but still have him finishing with 8.4 combined points and assists.

The Brewers are a strong play today at this number, even against White Sox starter Shane Smith, who’s posted a solid 2.30 ERA. However, the White Sox are just 1–4 in his starts. Brewers starter Tobias Myers struggled in his season debut but put up a 3.00 ERA last year and is capable of keeping this game close. If that happens, the Brewers’ offense has a great chance to get to Chicago’s bullpen in the later innings.

Alex Bregman is riding a hot streak, having scored in 10 of his last 12 games while sporting a 1.280 OPS since April 15. He’s locked in right now. With Toronto likely turning to a spot starter from AAA after using Casey Lawrence yesterday, Bregman should have a solid opportunity to keep the run production going, and you’re getting it at plus money.

Zach Neto has found his rhythm since returning from injury, with 3 HRs in his last 8 games and a red-hot 9-for-20 (.450) streak over his last five contests. All three of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching, and he boasts a 1.073 OPS vs. RHPs compared to just .500 vs. LHPs. He faces Emerson Hancock, a righty with a .860 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters over his career. This is a great matchup between a right-handed bat that crushes righties and a pitcher who struggles to get them out.

Marcell Ozuna went hitless yesterday, but don’t let that 0-for-5 fool you—he squared up the ball multiple times with three batted balls coming off the bat at 95+ mph. Coors Field wasn’t as hitter-friendly yesterday, but the home run index (HRI) has jumped from 1 to 5 for today’s game, indicating better slugging conditions. Ozuna faces rookie Chase Dollander, a top-10 pick who has had a rocky start to his MLB career, allowing 8 HRs in his first 3 starts. While he avoided the long ball last time out, he still gave up 5 ER. With our model pricing this at +225, +310 on FanDuel offers excellent value.

Bryce Miller’s issues this season have been more about control than hard contact. He’s allowed fewer than 4 hits in 2 of his last 3 outings but has walked 9 batters in those games. The matchup is favorable: the Angels rank third-worst in batting average vs. right-handed pitchers and struggle to string hits together even though they do have the second most HRs against RHPs. Miller has a 2.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP at home since last season, and we project 4 hits allowed in this start.

The Mariners are 10–6 at home this year and historically strong at T-Mobile Park (17 games above .500 last season at home compared to 9 games under .500 on the road). They’ve scored 21 runs in their last two games and send Bryce Miller to the mound, who has been far better at home (2.13 ERA since 2023). The Angels, meanwhile, are 7–11 on the road and starting Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 5.00 ERA on the road. Given the Mariners’ offensive momentum and home/road splits, this line is climbing and still offers value at -172.

Riley Greene is heating up at the plate with 3 home runs over his last 3 games, including a 2-HR night against Houston. He draws rookie righty Ryan Gusto, who has exceeded expectations so far, but had a 4.31 ERA in the minors and is likely due for regression. Greene crushes righties (.844 OPS vs. RHPs, all 6 of his HRs this year against them), and performs far better in night games (.972 OPS vs. .521 in day games). We price his HR odds closer to +400, so there’s definite value at +560.

William Contreras is a buy-low option here. He’s batting just .245 with a .705 OPS so far, which is well below his career norms. He’s hit over .275 with an .825+ OPS in each of the last three seasons. The White Sox are deploying a bullpen game, beginning with Tyler Gilbert and following with Bryse Wilson. Chicago’s bullpen leads MLB in home runs allowed (18), making this a strong spot for Contreras to break out. Our projection lines up with the +500 price, making this a fair value play but its a good matchup for Contreras.

Bobby Witt is in the middle of a 19-game hit streak, but he's only gone deep once during that span. While the power hasn’t been there yet this season, Witt does lead the American League with 12 doubles and appears to be seeing the ball well. His barrel rate is down to the 50th percentile after ranking in the 92nd last season, but the consistent extra-base hits suggest he’s close to finding his power stroke. Against Taj Bradley—a pitcher who has been prone to giving up home runs—+425 offers good value on one of the league’s most dynamic hitters. Our model makes this a fair play at +402.

Steven Kwan continues to be an on-base machine at the top of the lineup . He hasn’t scored in four straight games, but that kind of drought has been rare. Kwan hasn’t gone five straight games without scoring since last August 31- September 7. Facing Chris Paddack, who has a 7.44 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last 10 road starts, Kwan is in a good spot to snap the skid. With the line as high as -140 elsewhere, -125 is good value.