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Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has excelled in two straight NFL seasons, returning $2,010 to $100 players. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
@jordanpaytonsn1Carolina is 2-0 following a loss in these playoffs. ...
Toss-up in my mind so only a half unit, but I need a reason not to play a home team -- apparently whenever one is facing Florida suffices -- and I don't have a reason not to here. The Stars have the payback motivation, the better goalie and defense. Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner was fantastic the final two games of the last round but terrible in the three previous. And if he were to get hurt in mid-game, the Oilers are in big trouble with Calvin Pickard still out injured. Shoot, if I'm the Stars I'm taking runs at Skinner for that reason. Hypothetically of course. Dallas was 28-10-3 at home during the RS and has won six straight playoff games there.
Haven't really done much on Marty this year since he left the White Sox, but he's back in "form." After a hot start by his standards, which means a .237 average on April 21, Maldonado is down to .188 on the year and 3-for-21 with eight strikeouts this month. If he gets a hit off Jays starter Kevin Gausman, it's a duck snort or something lucky. And then maybe the Padres sub him out for offense if they are down in the later innings.
Cool temps and winds blowing in about 10 mph from center field in Pittsburgh. Offenses often struggle in a day game after a night one -- and the teams combined for a single run last night. Pirates starter Andrew Heaney has been solid with a 3.02 ERA, while the Reds' Brady Singer has a 3.31 ERA in two starts during the day. A couple of Pirates regulars are taking a seat.
The Royals' Michael Lorenzen is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA on the road and the KC bullpen is very thinned-out having been used a lot both Sunday and Monday. Wilmer Flores smashes Lorenzen career, going 7-for-14 with three homers. SF's Hayden Birdsong is a glorified opener but has a 1.69 home ERA.
I'm still pretty flabbergasted how bad Florida made the Maple Leafs look on their own ice in Game 7 on Sunday night. So impressive for the Cats but utterly depressing yet again for those of us tired of watching Toronto Game 7 meltdowns. I've had a pretty good NHL season but seems like I don't do well fading the Panthers. The only reason I will in Game 1 is that they have to turn around and play so soon after a long series. Carolina is well-rested and the only team without a home loss this postseason. Frederik Andersen leads all goalies in GAA and SV as well. This series will probably be a slugfest full of 2-1 or 3-2 games.
I don't think much of Yankees pitcher Will Warren, but no way that Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin (3-2, 3.35 ERA) suddenly got good for the first time in six years and at age 35. New York leads the majors in OPS against southpaws at .869. Cody Bellinger is raking during a 13-game hitting streak and is a career .391 hitter off Corbin. Texas, still without Corey Seager, is 8-13 on the road.
Tampa Bay's Zach Littell has three straight quality starts and hasn't allowed more than three earned since April 10. It's the first big-league start and Astros debut for lefty Brandon Walter. The 28-year-old made his big-league debut last year with Boston and got into nine games in relief with a 6.26 ERA. Houston almost surely is without closer Josh Hader and top setup man Bryan Abreu as both have pitched Sunday and Monday.
OK, that was not a fun MLB weekend. Think I will avoid the Padres for a while. I'd obviously prefer 3.5 here (priced -160 at BR) but I'm always taking 3 runs on a home team in MLB. Easy flat spot for the Phils after a long homestand and the bad news received on Sunday that top reliever Jose Alvarado was suspended 80 games and is ineligible for the postseason.
Not really understanding why the Brewers are home dogs against an Orioles team that clearly has quit already on a six-game skid and no "new manager bump" after the firing of Brandon Hyde over the weekend. It's not Hyde's fault that GM/ownership didn't go get pitching this offseason, but it is on Hyde that a lot of the team's good young hitters have regressed. Dean Kremer is 1-4 with a 6.96 ERA on the road.
We take home teams in Game 7, that simple. And we are covered in the event of an overtime loss. I hope to heck this goes to OT simply as a fan ... but then naturally Maple Leafs winning. They haven't been to the conference finals since 2002 when they got there with a Game 7 home win in the semifinals to face Carolina in the ECF. And of course, the Hurricanes are there waiting this year. Toronto forward Matthew Knies (58 regular-season points, +7 rating) was in some question with an injury but will play. This might be a homer pick because I'm not much interested in a Florida-Carolina East Finals matchup.
It has not been a great MLB weekend in large part because of the Padres, so I must be a glutton for punishment going back to them again. I just can't believe they will get swept at home in a supposed rivalry series. Seattle's bullpen is pretty taxed. Young starting pitcher Bryan Woo is darn good, but his road/day splits are significantly worse than his home/night ones. San Diego's Michael King has a 1.64 ERA at home. The Padres bullpen is in good shape. And any lineup of theirs without Jason Heyward (.177) in it is a better lineup. He's sitting today.
Definitely lost on the Padres on Friday, but this just makes me like them better on Saturday. Yeah, one game in theory should not influence the next, but I think it depends. It was a bad loss and the bullpen got reset for SD. Punt game. I honestly had forgotten this is the "Vedder Cup" series. Dunno, I don't like coffee or flannel. But I do like Pearl Jam (who doesn't?): "I'll ride the wave where it takes me." I try to live my life that way ...