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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has excelled in two straight NFL seasons, returning $2,010 to $100 players. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
LAST 251 NBA PICKS
+3236.25
RECORD: 161-89-1
# 1 NBA EXPERT
+3236.25
161-89-1 IN LAST 251 NBA PICKS

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Matt's Past Picks

May 21 2025, 1:45 am UTC
League
Kansas City
2
@ San Francisco
3
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+951
37-15 in Last 52 KC ML Picks
Analysis:

The Royals' Michael Lorenzen is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA on the road and the KC bullpen is very thinned-out having been used a lot both Sunday and Monday. Wilmer Flores smashes Lorenzen career, going 7-for-14 with three homers. SF's Hayden Birdsong is a glorified opener but has a 1.69 home ERA.

Pick Made: 1:12 am UTC on FanDuel
May 21 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Florida
5
@ Carolina
2
+3964.5
146-71-8 in Last 225 NHL Sides Picks
+1979
93-51 in Last 144 NHL ML Picks
+2118
54-25 in Last 79 CAR ML Picks
Analysis:

I'm still pretty flabbergasted how bad Florida made the Maple Leafs look on their own ice in Game 7 on Sunday night. So impressive for the Cats but utterly depressing yet again for those of us tired of watching Toronto Game 7 meltdowns. I've had a pretty good NHL season but seems like I don't do well fading the Panthers. The only reason I will in Game 1 is that they have to turn around and play so soon after a long series. Carolina is well-rested and the only team without a home loss this postseason. Frederik Andersen leads all goalies in GAA and SV as well. This series will probably be a slugfest full of 2-1 or 3-2 games.

Pick Made: Tue 2:49 am UTC on FanDuel
May 20 2025, 11:05 pm UTC
League
Texas
2
@ N.Y. Yankees
5
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+408.5
50-34 in Last 84 TEX ML Picks
Analysis:

I don't think much of Yankees pitcher Will Warren, but no way that Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin (3-2, 3.35 ERA) suddenly got good for the first time in six years and at age 35. New York leads the majors in OPS against southpaws at .869. Cody Bellinger is raking during a 13-game hitting streak and is a career .391 hitter off Corbin. Texas, still without Corey Seager, is 8-13 on the road.

Pick Made: Tue 2:42 am UTC on Caesars
May 20 2025, 11:05 pm UTC
League
Houston
2
@ Tampa Bay
3
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+783.5
43-23 in Last 66 TB ML Picks
Analysis:

Tampa Bay's Zach Littell has three straight quality starts and hasn't allowed more than three earned since April 10. It's the first big-league start and Astros debut for lefty Brandon Walter. The 28-year-old made his big-league debut last year with Boston and got into nine games in relief with a 6.26 ERA. Houston almost surely is without closer Josh Hader and top setup man Bryan Abreu as both have pitched Sunday and Monday.

Pick Made: Tue 9:09 pm UTC on DraftKings
May 20 2025, 12:40 am UTC
League
Philadelphia
9
@ Colorado
3
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+1085
29-10 in Last 39 MLB ATS Picks
+604
44-28 in Last 72 PHI ATS Picks
Analysis:

OK, that was not a fun MLB weekend. Think I will avoid the Padres for a while. I'd obviously prefer 3.5 here (priced -160 at BR) but I'm always taking 3 runs on a home team in MLB. Easy flat spot for the Phils after a long homestand and the bad news received on Sunday that top reliever Jose Alvarado was suspended 80 games and is ineligible for the postseason.

Pick Made: Mon 1:09 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 19 2025, 11:40 pm UTC
League
Baltimore
4
@ Milwaukee
5
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+1085
29-10 in Last 39 MLB ATS Picks
+450
6-0 in Last 6 BAL ATS Picks
Analysis:

Not really understanding why the Brewers are home dogs against an Orioles team that clearly has quit already on a six-game skid and no "new manager bump" after the firing of Brandon Hyde over the weekend. It's not Hyde's fault that GM/ownership didn't go get pitching this offseason, but it is on Hyde that a lot of the team's good young hitters have regressed. Dean Kremer is 1-4 with a 6.96 ERA on the road.

Pick Made: Mon 10:29 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 18 2025, 11:30 pm UTC
League
Florida
6
@ Toronto
1
+3964.5
146-71-8 in Last 225 NHL Sides Picks
+2875.5
80-33-8 in Last 121 NHL ATS Picks
+1139
14-2 in Last 16 FLA ATS Picks
Analysis:

We take home teams in Game 7, that simple. And we are covered in the event of an overtime loss. I hope to heck this goes to OT simply as a fan ... but then naturally Maple Leafs winning. They haven't been to the conference finals since 2002 when they got there with a Game 7 home win in the semifinals to face Carolina in the ECF. And of course, the Hurricanes are there waiting this year. Toronto forward Matthew Knies (58 regular-season points, +7 rating) was in some question with an injury but will play. This might be a homer pick because I'm not much interested in a Florida-Carolina East Finals matchup.

Pick Made: Sun 5:04 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 18 2025, 8:10 pm UTC
League
Seattle
6
@ San Diego
1
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+336
7-4 in Last 11 SD ML Picks
Analysis:

It has not been a great MLB weekend in large part because of the Padres, so I must be a glutton for punishment going back to them again. I just can't believe they will get swept at home in a supposed rivalry series. Seattle's bullpen is pretty taxed. Young starting pitcher Bryan Woo is darn good, but his road/day splits are significantly worse than his home/night ones. San Diego's Michael King has a 1.64 ERA at home. The Padres bullpen is in good shape. And any lineup of theirs without Jason Heyward (.177) in it is a better lineup. He's sitting today.

Pick Made: Sun 5:18 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 18 2025, 12:40 am UTC
League
Seattle
4
@ San Diego
1
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+336
7-4 in Last 11 SD ML Picks
Analysis:

Definitely lost on the Padres on Friday, but this just makes me like them better on Saturday. Yeah, one game in theory should not influence the next, but I think it depends. It was a bad loss and the bullpen got reset for SD. Punt game. I honestly had forgotten this is the "Vedder Cup" series. Dunno, I don't like coffee or flannel. But I do like Pearl Jam (who doesn't?): "I'll ride the wave where it takes me." I try to live my life that way ...

Pick Made: May 17, 5:03 am UTC on BetRivers
May 18 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Winnipeg
1
@ Dallas
2
+3964.5
146-71-8 in Last 225 NHL Sides Picks
+1979
93-51 in Last 144 NHL ML Picks
+2148
54-23 in Last 77 WPG ML Picks
Analysis:

Get asked often why I generally only play home teams (any sport). I just think guys feel comfortable with the background/rink/field, no travel, etc., and it's easier to stage a comeback at home than away. The Jets' Connor Hellebuyck is the definition of back at home/fade away in these playoffs. He pitched a second home shutout in the series Thursday but is 0-5 with a 5.84 GAA on the road. Winnipeg -- and Hellebuyck -- has lost nine straight playoff road games overall. So, yeah, the Jets are probably due and as someone who wants a Canadian team to finally win the Cup, I'd prefer they win. But I can't ignore the numbers.

Pick Made: May 16, 3:44 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 17 2025, 11:15 pm UTC
League
Minnesota
7
@ Milwaukee
0
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+1085
29-10 in Last 39 MLB ATS Picks
+1708
47-23 in Last 70 MIN ATS Picks
Analysis:

This play flopped yesterday, but I'm going back as the scorching-hot Twins are without three regulars due to injury, etc. Ty France is the cleanup hitter today and Kody Clemens is in the 5 hole. I don't think Kody Clemens batted in the top five of the order at his own family softball gatherings. Who the heck is DaShawn Keirsey? He's the starting center fielder today and DaBad (not to be confused with Da Bears) offensively: hitting just .116. I might play Twins TT Under 4.5 looking at this motley crew today. Which means they will score 15. Do I even have to say this would be unlucky win No. 13 in a row for Minny? If you believe in such things ...

Pick Made: May 17, 7:27 pm UTC on FanDuel
May 17 2025, 1:40 am UTC
League
Seattle
5
@ San Diego
1
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+336
7-4 in Last 11 SD ML Picks
Analysis:

Seems a little light on the Padres, who have been one of the best teams in the majors at home. Seattle is starting to show its flaws -- i.e. can't hit -- in a 3-7 run. Rookie pitcher Logan Evans was torched in his lone road start. Anyone who has Miles Mastrobuoni in their starting lineup as Seattle does should lose. If this were my Best Friend's Fat Greek Wedding or something, maybe I want Miles around. Although Mastrobuoni is probably Italian. OK, Nonnas then (good flick).

Pick Made: May 16, 11:51 pm UTC on BetRivers
May 17 2025, 12:10 am UTC
League
Minnesota
3
@ Milwaukee
0
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+1085
29-10 in Last 39 MLB ATS Picks
+1708
47-23 in Last 70 MIN ATS Picks
Analysis:

The Twins are absolutely on fire but it seems like both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa will sit today after they collided on Thursday in Baltimore and landed in the concussion protocol. And the bullpen is pretty thinned-out having played a DH on Wednesday and then having to use their two top guys again Thursday. I tend to think the 11-game skid ends here but obviously we don't turn down +1.5. Milwaukee was off Thursday and is 12-7 at home.

Pick Made: May 16, 1:45 pm UTC on Caesars
May 17 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Boston
81
@ New York
119
+3236.25
161-89-1 in Last 251 NBA Picks
+968
42-23 in Last 65 NBA ML Picks
+1323
48-23 in Last 71 BOS ML Picks
Analysis:

Good for the Celtics in winning Game 5 without Jayson Tatum to save their season temporarily. But that was probably all adrenaline from the home crowd ... and clearly the New York players somewhat took things for granted. I believe reality without Tatum kicks in big time back at Madison Square Garden for Boston on Friday. It's the Knicks' biggest home game in 25 years. So maybe give the good seats to a true regular fan and not a Kardashian/Jenner ...

Pick Made: May 15, 1:35 pm UTC on BetMGM
May 16 2025, 11:10 pm UTC
League
Atlanta
4
@ Boston
2
+1804
115-59 in Last 174 MLB Picks
+343.5
46-27 in Last 73 MLB ML Picks
+1042
61-33 in Last 94 ATL ML Picks
Analysis:

I like to look at mismatches -- at least in my mind. So I generally avoid great pitching matchups like we have Friday ... but there is no absolute way I am not playing the "Former White Sox Bowl" of Chris Sale vs. Garrett Crochet. We also call it the "Red Sox Ripped Us Off" game. Guess we shall see on Crochet but not looking great so far in terms of the ChiSox's return. The Red Sox had the benefit of being off Thursday, while the Braves played and used all their key relievers. Not saying not available today, but it doesn't hurt in regards to this pick. But I will admit this is partially for my anti-Jerry Reinsdorf entertainment.

Pick Made: May 16, 9:16 am UTC on FanDuel
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